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000
FXUS63 KFSD 272303
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
603 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A SEASONALLY COOL LATE JULY DAY CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED
STATES...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH 70 IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THROUGH THE EVENING...AN EXPANSIVE STRATOCU DECK WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS CLOUD FIELD WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR A THICKER CLOUD BAND OVER THE NERN CWA. A
VERY COOL OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES FALL WELL INTO THE
50S.

MONDAY...GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE LARGER TROUGH...DROPPING DUE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.  A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. HAVE
ALSO KNOCKED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED
BY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. A
PRETTY AMPLIFIED AND STAGNANT PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY
AND RIDGING TO THE WEST. OUR CWA WILL THUS REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW
AND ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE THERMAL RIDGE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
PRETTY LIGHT...AND SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH JUST SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER FORCING IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW...SO DESPITE THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...LOOKS
LIKE WE SHOULD STAY DRY. WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY PASS TO OUR EAST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WITH BEST FORCING TO OUR EAST AND
MODELS PRETTY DRY...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW.

GFS REMAINS A BIT WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE WITH TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID
TEENS...SLOWLY WARMING AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS AND AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES...MIXING SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH THE WEEK...ALLOWING US TO
FULLY REALIZE THESE TEMPERATURES ALOFT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID 70S
TO LOW 80S ON TUESDAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THE REST OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY AS WELL...AND STAYED ON
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THOSE
NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...JM