Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 302028
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT
WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS MARGINALLY MIXED THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD MEAN A LITTLE LESS FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER THAN THE PAST
TWO NIGHTS BUT THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE LATEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA
SO STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A BIT HUMID AND WARM TONIGHT WITH MONDAY MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS
TOO DRY FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MODELS IN THE EXTENDED TO ADVERTISE A RELATIVELY WARM...MUGGY AND
BREEZY WEEK AHEAD COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST IS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND HAVE PERIODIC POPS
SPRINKLED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

THERE IS A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY THAT WORKS THROUGH THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING.  IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY FORM IN THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
AREA...WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS DON/T REALLY ADVERTISE MUCH OF A WAVE.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT AND A 25-35 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  NOT A LOT
OF SPEED CONVERGENCE WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
COULD GET ENOUGH CONVERGENCE IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA TO SPROUT A FEW STORMS.

HAVE CONTINUED LOW POP MENTION ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

MORE ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH SHORTWAVES STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TRANSLATING EAST.  HAVE
KEPT MID TO UPPER CHANCE RANGE POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL SHEAR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT MID LEVEL SUPPORT SEEMS LIMITED THUS
KEEPING SEVERE CHANCES SOMEWHAT LIMITED.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IFR CONDITIONS NEAR KSUX QUICKLY ERODING LATE THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT VFR BY 18Z. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD SO WILL RAMP UP WINDS AS WELL. SOME THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR...THE BEST CHANCE NEAR KFSD...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN
TAF AS THERE IS STILL A DECENT CHANCE TO REMAIN MARGINALLY MIXED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08



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