Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 290739

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
239 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Quiet weather continues in the short term.  Outside of a bit of
morning stratus in SW Minnesota and NW Iowa, clear skies and light
winds prevail. Nearly perfect Fall conditions continue tonight with
clear skies and light winds again.  These conditions should provide
optimal viewing conditions for what looks to be a more promising
aurora borealis viewing opportunity tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Not much pattern change for the end of the week through the weekend
with upper level ridging remaining over the central CONUS, while
surface high pressure over our area only slowly drifts eastward
through the period. With that, will see temperatures subtly warm
each day, with highs in the lower to mid 70s for Friday through
Sunday, then mid and upper 70s by Monday in an increasing southerly
flow. Lows will be in the 40s for Saturday morning, then into the
50s for Sunday and Monday. It looks to remain dry through the period.

The pattern then begins to change by Tuesday and Wednesday as an
upper level low over the Four Corners region lifts into the Northern
Plains during that time frame. Models seem to be converging a little
better on the details of this solution, and have slowed up onset of
precipitation potential over our area until Tuesday afternoon. The
better rain chances then look to come on Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Temperatures look similar for the end of the extended
period, with highs once again in the 70s for Tuesday, possibly
lowering to the 60s for Wednesday with more clouds/showers.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Lower end VFR stratus has cleared out of our forecast area east of
I 29 at this time. However surface dew point depressions are very
small in our far eastern zones east of I 29. So there is a threat
that fog may develop very late tonight and Thursday morning in
those areas. Radiational fog could produce areas of IFR conditions
during that time frame. It appears that the KHON, KFSD and KSUX
TAF sites may be too far west to see a lot of fog. However, at
KHON and KFSD, the dew point depressions are rather small, so
included the mention of at least some possible MVFR fog formation
for a few hours around sunrise Thursday. At KSUX, their air is a
bit drier so did not mention fog at this time.




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