Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 180351
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1051 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION IS BRINGING A GOOD BIT OF
CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND WITH A LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HAVE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD...WILL KEEP ENOUGH OF A
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THAT WINDS WILL NOT DROP OFF AS
THEY HAVE THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. WITH THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE MILDER...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO WARM ON FRIDAY...AND IT WILL BE A
BREEZY DAY AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS EVEN
MORE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 TO MID 80S THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NORTHERN CWA AS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS
UNLIKELY. FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE MID
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY WILL POSSIBLY SEE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER FROM EXITING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OTHERWISE WARM...HUMID AND A BIT BREEZY.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH A FEW 90S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER.

AT THIS TIME THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA SO NO THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT
AGAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS IN MAINLY THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THIS TIME AROUND THE
MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS BOISTEROUS IN BUILDING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS STILL THERE...BUT THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF IT IS BEING SUPPRESSED A BIT BY A WAVE ROUNDING THE
NORTHERN FRINGES. EACH OF THE LATEST MODELS HAS THIS SO WILL HAVE TO
GIVE IT SOME CONSIDERATION. OVERALL...STILL LOOKING ABOVE NORMAL ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT ASSUMING THIS WAVE SWINGS THROUGH A BOUNDARY
WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WITH THIS WAVE WILL COME A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT OBVIOUSLY THIS FAR OUT TIMING IS A LITTLE
DIFFICULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 19/06Z. DRY AIR AND A STEADY SOUTHERLY
MIXING FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL PREVENT ANY NIGHTTIME FOG OR LOW
CLOUD FORMATION. AT THIS TIME...FOREST FIRE SMOKE FROM THE DISTANT
WEST AND NORTH IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT THE
SURFACE TO BELOW 6SM.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...





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