Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 120453

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1053 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 321 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

Cold high pressure will again build south tonight and bring another
cold day to the area Monday. Wind and cloud cover will keep
temperatures from getting too cold tonight, but most locations will
still drop to zero to 5 below by Monday morning. Warm advection will
increase in central Nebraska toward western SD and central SD Monday
afternoon. Some light snow will be possible in these areas but any
activity should remain west of the Missouri River through sunset.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 321 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

By Monday night this warm advection spreads eastward and will
bring a chance for light snow to most of the area, with the better
chances across eastern SD into southwest MN. Increased clouds and
a southerly wind will keep temperatures above zero, with lows of
about 5 to 10 above.

As the upper level flow turns more westerly Tuesday into Wednesday
so will the low level flow. This will bring warmer temperatures with
it and also somewhat breezy conditions. Highs on Tuesday will be in
the 20s to lower 30s, the mid 30s to mid 40s on Wednesday. There may
be a little stratus or fog around on Wednesday which could hurt the
warm up with the better chances for this across northwest IA and
southwest MN.

Colder air will spill into the area Wednesday night into Thursday,
bringing temperatures back below normal both Thursday and Friday.
There will be a small chance for some light snow on Wednesday night
and Thursday as the front settles south.

Right now it appears that this colder air will shift south and east
of the area somewhat quickly bringing temperatures back to normal or
a little above for next weekend. However some statistical signals
in the models hint that it is too early to get excited about any
warm up, so just something to watch out for.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1053 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

VFR conditions will dominate across most of the forecast area
this TAF period, though MVFR ceilings will likely spread into
areas west of the James River Valley by Monday evening. Area of
light snow may lift northeast across mainly our South Dakota
counties Monday evening, producing brief periods of MVFR-locally
IFR visibility. Of our TAF locations, this most likely to impact
KHON, but uncertainty in timing precludes mention of sub-VFR
conditions at this time.




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