Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 280945

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
345 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Relatively messy forecast today with band of precipitation
associated with 700 mb frontogenesis trying to work into the area.
Band is struggling with lack of moisture, but will have the
potential for a very light snow event north of I-90 today. Am not
expecting snow to result in more than a dusting with moisture
severely limited. Short term high res models show light amounts of
spurious precip, so have left chance pops along the highway 14

Upper level trough moves through the region tonight with isentropic
lift developing on the 290K surface across the eastern half of
the forecast area. With the slightly stronger lift, there appears to
be deeper saturation potentially leading to some light snowfall
across the area.  Have raised pops into the low likelies in
southwest Minnesota, with high chance pops extending down into
northwest Iowa. Have up to an inch of snowfall across the region
overnight tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

A small threat for precipitation will linger over areas mainly east
of Interstate 29 on Wednesday morning but amounts will be light.
This is in response to the exiting wave moving through MN and mid
level thermal band. Clouds should decrease through the day with a
bit of a gusty northwest wind to deal with. With a chilly air mass
in place and snow on the ground highs should be stuck in the 30s.

This chilly air mass will remain in place as another smaller wave
will move through Wednesday night into Thursday. Gusty winds and
highs in the 30s will feel a bit raw. Light snow will be possible
over southwest MN late Wednesday night and Thursday.

Cool high pressure settles into the area Thursday night into Friday
morning bringing cool morning lows in the teens and lower 20s.

After this cool morning west coast troughing will bring ridging to
the Plains states which will set up warming Saturday into Monday. A
wave does look to eject into the northern Plains which will bring a
chance for precipitation Sunday night into Monday as well as
slightly cooler temperatures on Monday. Saturday and Sunday should
prove to be very nice with highs in the 50s. Some 60s will be likely
as well if the majority of the snow cover is gone.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1026 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Short term model guidance has really backed off on fog formation
tonight due to increasing mid-level cloud cover, along with better
moisture in the lower levels advecting further east than north by
daybreak. Stratus/fog may still be possible at SUX later tonight,
but very low visibility now removed from forecast.

Small burst of snow could be possible in HON between 2-4am
temporarily reducing ceilings and visibility. Highest risk of
stratus now looks to move in around mid-day behind cold front.
Ceilings still MVFR in most cases, but could bounce between 1500
and 2500 ft AGL through the afternoon.

Lower ceilings, likely MVFR, should prevail through through the
evening hours.




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