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000
FXUS62 KGSP 142023
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
423 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE AT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2015 UTC UPDATE...NO NEED FOR ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST. HOURLY
TEMPS AND TD/S ARE RIGHT ON TRACK AND CLOUD COVER REMAINS FEW/SCT
FAIR WX CU ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. EXPECT THE CP AIRMASS TO
CONTINUE MIXING IN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE A STRONG H7 SUBS
INVERSION AND LOW TD/S PREVENT ANY CHANCE OF ENHANCED CU...LET ALONE
A PRECIP ISSUE. MODERATE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO CHANNEL THROUGH THE
MTN VALLEYS AND WILL ANTICIPATE A WEAKENING TREND AROUND 00Z WITH
SFC DECOUPLING AND A BROADENING OF THE H9-H7 HEIGHT GRADIENT.

AS OF 215 PM EDT FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS STRONG
DRYING OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. AS THE ATTENDANT SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO
THE REGION DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN ABOUT 15 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY/S
LEVELS. NORTHWEST FLOW IS HELPING TO SUPPORT A HEALTHY CU FIELD OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS. THERE IS ALSO SOME CU OVER THE I-77
CORRIDOR WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE CYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE LLVL
FLOW. AFTER DARK THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE...YIELDING A
CLEAR NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW NORMAL.

THE DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY. ABOUT THE ONLY
THING THAT WILL MAR AN OTHERWISE PERFECT DAY WILL BE A INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE TO RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE GULF STATES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE MIDDLE TN VALLEY. THIS SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE SUNDAY...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS OUR
AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY LATE MONDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE CAROLINA AND GA COAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AND MONDAY...ALLOWING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
MOIST GULF INFLOW TO SPREAD EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...THE MODELS SHOW A BAND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMAINS OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY...AND LINGERING INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY...ENTERING THE OH RIVER
VALLEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

A MID LEVEL CAP WILL ERODE ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TO TAKE PLACE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF CAPE AND SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY...BUT ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON MONDAY...WHEN
BOTH CAPE AND SHEAR IMPROVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY...THEN WILL SEE A
REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 200 PM FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT BUT AT LEAST SOME PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT QUICKLY MOVES OFF OVER THE ATLANTIC BY LATE
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A PERSISTENT MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH DAY THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...CYCLONIC FLOW AND MOIST GROUND HAS HELPED SCT CUMULUS
CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE WRN NC PIEDMONT THIS AFTN. CLOUD BASES ARE
UP AROUND 6KFT NOW AND THEY MAY CLIMB A LITTLE MORE OVER THE NEXT
CPL HOURS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH THE REST OF THE DAY. THEY WILL GUST UP
TO 18 KTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND
THEY WILL SWITCH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT LIGHT SPEEDS BY MID TO LATE
MORNING TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE...SCT CU WILL PERSIST JUST NORTH OF KAVL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
NORTH...THOUGH THE LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHTER AND MORE
VARIABLE AT KAND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NE
TONIGHT...TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT LIGHT SPEEDS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TSTM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VISIN
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/SBK
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...VISIN
AVIATION...MCAVOY