Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 160232

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
932 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

High pressure will build into the region today, with a warming
trend into the. Temperatures will be near normal through Thursday.
weekend. A weak low pressure system will cross the area Saturday and
Saturday night, with drying returning again for the beginning of
next week.


As of 930 PM: High pressure will continue building out of the
central Plains and into the Deep South through midday Thursday.
Skies will remain mostly clear across our area through at least the
early morning hours. Winds will remain gusty through the overnight
across the high peaks and ridge tops of the southern Appalachians.
However, with cold advection beginning to wind down, the gradient
may relax enough for winds to decouple in sheltered valleys and
across the Piedmont/foothills. This should allow min temps to settle
to near normal values. Max temps Thu are expected to rebound a few
degrees over the mountains and perhaps 1-2 degrees in the Piedmont,
compared to Wednesday`s highs.


As of 230 PM EST Wednesday: Mainly quiet weather through the
first half of the short term, beginning with northwest flow aloft in
the wake of the deep upper low, but with ridging building in over
the area on Friday as another cutoff upper low works its way
northeast from northern Mexico into the Southern Plains. Should see
a beautiful spring-like day on Friday, with increasing clouds
overnight as moisture from the Southern Plains cutoff starts
spreading over the area. Temps Friday night will be above normal
(get used to that...that`s sort of gonna be the case through the end
of the forecast). Most guidance seems to keep the bulk of the
convection along the coast, which may end up cutting off downstream
precipitation over the Southern Appalachians, but there should be at
least some light precip over our area associated with the passage of
the upper low itself. A good chunk of this may get hung up on the
upstream side of the mountains, and resulting pops are low chance at
best with pretty low corresponding QPF. Still well above normal for
highs on Saturday even with the increased cloud cover and reduced
thicknesses with strong low level WAA. However, even behind the
upper low, temps on Sunday will increase a few degrees higher with
high-amplitude ridging building in from the west.


As of 245 PM EST Wednesday: Quiet through the first part of the
extended with high-amplitude ridging dominating the area.
Thicknesses will increase quite a bit on Monday with highs a good 15
degrees above seasonal averages...but with that pattern in place the
current forecast highs may actually be too low, so will likely end
up being an uptick in highs over the next few forecast packages.
Beyond that, actually remarkable agreement in general synoptic
pattern and mass fields in the operational models with another
cutoff (been a lot of them lately) diving into the Southern Plains
and toward the Gulf Tuesday night. ECMWF is a little farther south
but again patterns are remarkably similar for that far out.  Have
brought in token slight to low chance pops at the end of the period
as moisture overspreads the area again, but really neither model has
much in the way of QPF, rather just an increase in cloud cover.
Spring-like temperatures will continue with highs continuing 10-15


At KCLT and elsewhere: Drier air will continue to overspread the
area through the next 24 hours, resulting in VFR conditions through
the period. With the exception of KAVL, which should continue to
gust in the 20-25 kts range off and on through tonight and tomorrow,
N/NW winds will continue to diminish through the overnight. Winds
will increase to 5-10 kts again by late morning, when directions
should range between 250 and 290 at most terminals, continuing
through the end of the period.

Outlook: Conditions remain dry through the end of the work week. The
next chance of restrictions looks to be on Saturday as an upper
disturbance approaches the area from the west.

Confidence Table...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:




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