


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
584 FXUS62 KGSP 061455 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1055 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical cyclone Chantal will move into and across the coastal plain of the Carolinas today and tonight. Hot and more humid conditions will return on Monday and linger through midweek featuring daily afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chances. The heat abates somewhat into the weekend but daily afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chances continue. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 AM: Chantal has been downgraded to a TD as of the 15z advisory, being centered about 80 mi west of Wilmington. Intense rainfall is occurring near the center of circulation, with 3" reported between 9-10 AM at Lumberton, NC. CAMs have been pretty consistent in tracking the area of heaviest rainfall just east of our CWA, with the last couple of HRRR runs and the HiRes-ARW matching radar imagery fairly well. Those models, and CAMs in general, lend confidence to appreciably lower PoPs for most of our zones than what had been depicted on earlier NBM runs. Revised PoP trends thru 06z tonight to that effect, keeping a sharp gradient with 70-90% PoP east of I-77 tapering down to a chance for the lower Catawba River, with unmentionably low values now across the middle of the CWA. There is some consistency in developing isolated showers/storms near the SW Blue Ridge Escarpment and propagating them south into the Savannah Valley, so a mention is made there as well. Potential for 1-2" total rainfall does persist along our eastern border and we retained the "Elevated" category of Flooding Rain Threat in that area as depicted on the NWS Hurricane Threats and Impacts display, although impacts probably will remain nuisance-level. Our eastern zones are expected to remain on the western periphery of the storm`s circulation with mainly just rain and 20-30 mph wind gusts thru mid-afternoon. Low altitude cloud cover over the I-77 corridor thru most of the day, so high temps should remain in the lower to mid 80s over those zones as previously expected. In the western half of our CWA, high temps should be near normal, and perhaps slightly above normal in the French Broad and Little TN Valleys owing to downslope NE`ly flow off the ridges. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 115 AM Sunday: Chantal moves away from the area Monday leaving a warm, moist, and weakly unstable air mass across our area. This air mass remains across the area on Tuesday. Expect diurnal convection both days, with coverage favoring the mountains dropping to isolated coverage south of the I-85 corridor in the Upstate and NE GA. Highs will be on the rise both days with mid 90s common outside of the mountains and around 90 in the mountain valleys, and may increase a couple of degrees on Tuesday. Dew points should mix out both afternoons with relatively deep mixing and weak westerly flow. Still, heat index values will rise to around 100 degrees or slightly higher along and south of the I-85 corridor. If temps or dew points end up warmer, then a Heat Advisory may be needed. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 145 AM Sunday: A couple of short wave troughs will move east near or over the area through the period. This brings lower heights and a "cooling trend" with temperatures falling to "only" slightly above normal by the weekend. A stationary front to our north will see a series of low pressure centers move east along it. While they stay to our north, a lee trough develops each day helping to provide focus for convective initiation. The air mass remains moist and unstable, so increasing, mainly diurnal PoP is expected each day. Wednesday will see the highest heat index values, again around 100 or slightly higher along and south of the I-85 corridor. Mid 90s to possibly 100 will be common through the end of the rest of the period. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Tropical Storm Chantal is currently making landfall over the NC/SC Coast. It is still expected to turn north and pass roughly 50 to 150 miles east of KCLT later tonight. The tightening pressure gradient between Chantal and high pressure centered along the Blue Ridge will keep winds out of the N to NE in the 6 to 12 kt range thru this evening with low-end gusts of 15 to 20 kts. KAVL will be closer to the ridge axis which should keep their winds lighter thru the taf period. For CLT: Much of the latest near-term guidance has been backing off on lower cigs reaching KCLT over the next several hrs. Thus, opted to keep any cig restrictions in a TEMPO group as opposed to prevailing. The TEMPO runs from 13 to 17z and also includes -SHRA with MVFR vsby. Still have prevailing -SHRA beginning around 17z this afternoon with a PROB30 for SHRA from 18 to 24z today. It remains unclear whether the heavier rain bands associated with Chantal will actually reach KCLT, but it`s looking more likely that they will end up only seeing sct showers today/tonight with any IFR conditions remaining to their east. Precip chances taper off this evening with the rest of the period expected to be dry. There is still a chance that MVFR cigs may move back over the site around 00z this evening and then sct out during the overnight, but it`s looking less likely. Otherwise VFR thru the period with PROB30s and/or VCSH for SHRA/TSRA potential. Winds will be similar to KCLT just slightly weaker, especially at KAVL. Outlook: More typical summertime weather returns on Monday and continues thru mid-week, with sct SHRA/TSRA mainly in the aftn/ evening and fog and/or low stratus possible each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RWH NEAR TERM...Wimberley SHORT TERM...RWH LONG TERM...RWH AVIATION...JPT/Wimberley