Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 160244

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1044 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Weak high pressure will persist across the region into early next
week, keeping rain chances low. Hurricane Jose is forecast to remain
over the Atlantic and appears unlikely to impact the Carolinas or
Georgia.  A more summer like pattern will highlight the weather next
week with diurnal rain chances and above normal temperatures


As of 1040 PM EDT: The next 24 hours look very quiet weather-wise as
we remain under a weak flow aloft with the decay of a blocking
pattern to our west. The remnants of the weak upper trof, seen on
the water vapor imagery over AL/GA, should pass slowly to the south
with the deeper moisture remaining closer to the Gulf Coast. Weak
high pressure will remain in control of our weather as a result.
Expect another round of valley fog across the NC mountains late
tonight/early Saturday, with locally dense fog appearing likely in
spots, but the fog is not expected to be sufficiently widespread to
warrant a DFA attm. Fog should burn off quickly by mid-morning
Saturday. The rest of Saturday will see only scattered stratocu
across most of the region. Cannot rule out a few showers on the
ridgetops once again, so a low precip chance was kept. Temps will
remain close to normal.


As of 215 PM EDT Friday: The Short Term remains fairly quiet, with
an axis of high pressure remaining anchored across the region. In
the upper levels, a ridge will persist across the eastern CONUS,
while T.C. Jose tracks toward the north, while remaining offshore of
the Carolinas. Northerly flow around west side of T.C. Jose`s
circulation will keep conditions dry and reinforce temps about a
category or two above normal across the CWFA. Forecast soundings show
some shallow CAPE under a mid-level subsidence inversion in the high
terrain. So with enough differential heating in the mountains, a few
isolated shallow showers may pop during mid to late AFTN. But
otherwise, just a mix of sun and clouds both Sunday and Monday.
Valley fog will be possible both mornings as well.


As of 150 PM EDT Friday: Generally quiet weather conditions are
expected to continue through at least the first half of the period.
The general pattern atop the region for Tuesday and Wednesday
features a nondescript NW flow aloft and broad/weak sfc ridging. The
atmosphere doesn`t look to be spriest enough to preclude any mtn
showers from forming, but whatever does get forced should be
isolated at most.  Temperatures are expected to average a few deg F
above the mid-Sept climo.  A trend toward more unsettled weather is
featured by the end of the workweek with Atlantic fetch and llvl
easterly flow setting up on Friday.  At this point, an introduction
of small or slight chance pop cwfawide is planned for the new day 7
and perhaps a lowering of max temps closer to normal.


At KCLT and Elsewhere: The main concern for this period will be the
potential for fog and/or low stratus, which will again be most
likely in the mountain valleys. Categorical LIFR conditions are
advertised at KAVL after 08Z, with a tempo btw 06-08Z. As far as the
Piedmont/foothills, expect no worse than MVFR visby toward daybreak.
Light winds will generally favor a light N to NE direction, but will
be calm or light/vrbl tonight through tomorrow morning in most
locations. Any fog/low stratus will burn off by mid-morning, giving
way to VFR conditions through the day.

Outlook: Isolated, mainly high terrain diurnal showers will continue
through the weekend into early next week. Morning mountain valley
fog/stratus are also possible each day.

Confidence Table...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High  83%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  83%     Low   52%     High  95%     High 100%
KHKY       High  95%     High  95%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High  95%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High  95%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:




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