Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 040558
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1258 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Increased moisture will cross our region from the west today and
linger into Tuesday. A strong cold front will arrive Wednesday night
bringing some of the coldest air of the season so far at the end of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1245 AM EST...A steady very light rain continues across the
Upstate and NE GA, while weaker returns are generally not reaching
the gournd across most of the NC zones at the moment. There may be
some light snow reaching the ground in the elevations above about
5000 ft, where temps are in the mid 30s. But I`ve seen no reports or
any snow on webcams so far. With all that said, the forecast is on
track, so only minor tweaks were made with this update.

As of 920 PM EST: Moisture return on weak upglide flow continues to
invade the forecast area in fits and spurts this evening. We appear
to be lacking a broad region of persistent upglide and the moisture
is developing from the top down in profiles that were quite dry at
onset. While many Upstate and NE GA locations have reported light
rain from time to time, amounts have been quite light as
considerable evaporation continues beneath the high cloud bases.
Still, anticipate the moisture steadily working its way to the
surface through the overnight hours and gradually spreading
northward. The main problem at this point is that mountain
temperatures are starting off quite chilly along the higher ridges.
There are plenty of lower to middle 30s late evening ridge top
temperatures and dewpoints in the 20s will support more cooling
despite the clouds. Have thus expanded the snow mention a bit across
the Smokies/Balsams and throughout the northern mountain valleys.
Will also have ridge top accumulations now reaching about an inch or
slightly more from Mt. Mitchell to Beech Mountain, but with just a
trace to a few tenths along mid slopes and into the higher mountain
valleys. The lower valleys should remain liquid. There is still some
concern that a very modest warm nose could develop even where the
temp hits 32 and perhaps mix in some sleet at times along the ridges.

Otherwise, a closed H5 cyclone centered over NW Mexico will deepen
as moisture lifts NE across the MS Delta region and toward the
extreme southern Appalachians. Surface high pressure remains
centered over the southern/central Appalachians this evening to
reinforce the dry low level airmass. The atmosphere will moisten
with time from the top down with likely to categorical PoP featured
west of I-77 by 12z - spreading across the entire fcst area by
midday Sunday. Temperatures will slowly warm into late morning
across the entire fcst area leading to all rain by midday as highs
top out in the upper 30s across the mtns to upper 40s over the
Piedmont. Rainfall amounts through Sunday afternoon are fcst to be
around 1-1.25 inches across the southwest/central NC mtns and
northeast GA, tapering down to the east with a half to quarter inch
favored at GSP and CLT respectively.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM EST Saturday: A split flow pattern early in the period
evolves into a single flow Atlantic ridge and broad central and
western CONUS trough by the end of the period. The northern wave of
the split flow on pushes a frontal boundary across the area. The
combination of deep moisture and synoptic scale lift, along with
isentropic lift, will spread rain across the area through the night.
Although surface temps across the Northern Mountains will be in the
mid 30s overnight, a nearly 10 degree C low level warm nose will
keep precip as all liquid. Lows will be around 5 degrees below
normal. QPF values will range from tenth to a half an inch from
north to south.

The moisture and lift move east and south of the area early Monday
as high pressure builds in from the north and sets up in a cold air
damming pattern. As this takes place, the southern stream upper low
over the Rio Grande opens up and moves across Texas. Short wave
energy moves through the flow ahead of the low and across our area.
The associated surface low moves east along the Gulf Coast spreading
a moist southerly flow across the SE CONUS. Precip spreads back into
the area from the SW in response. QPF will be light. Temps will be
tricky with the damming high setting up, but precip tapering off
across portions of the area. Expect highs generally in the low to
mid 50s, but they could be higher where precip ends and lower where
it lingers.

Precip develops in earnest Monday night as the upper low tracks into
MS and the surface low takes on a Miller B pattern. Deep moisture
returns, along with strong synoptic and isentropic forcing. This
will strengthen the damming high across the area. As the surface
lows track east on Tuesday, the southern wedge boundary does lift
north toward the area. However, expect it, and any resulting
instability or thunderstorms, to remain to our south as well. Still,
given the PW values and strength of the forcing, expect QPF values
to range from around 0.75 inches near the TN border to 1.5 inches
along the southern tier of the CWFA. Lows Monday night will be
around 10 degrees above normal with all liquid precip. Highs will be
near normal across the mountains where the damming influence is
less, to around 5 degrees below normal elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 PM EST Saturday: A surface boundary should be south of our
county warning area (CWA) Tuesday evening as a deamplifying upper
level trough and vort max quickly sweep northeast into Virginia.
This will allow any lingering POPS to end quickly in the evening.

Wednesday a rather non descript pattern as the atmosphere reloads to
the west, and the surface pattern across our region remains "baggy"
with a weak flow. Conditions should remain dry for the balance of
the day.

A strong H5 trough will rotate into the middle Ohio Valley Wednesday
night and Thursday, signaling a change in our weather pattern. This
will allow a shot of cold air to begin a plunge into the region.
Thermal structure continues to show a downward trend in thickness
and H85 temperatures from late Wednesday night through Thursday -
at least.

We will continue with low POPs from late Wednesday night into the
wee hours Thursday night - with weak vorticity advection/cold air
advection and a bit of moisture. Deepest moisture should be in our
North Carolina mountains. Speaking of our North Carolina mountains
it appears to be cold enough for a change to all snow showers,
although precipitation amounts should be light at the moment.

Cold high pressure will then build into the region Friday and
Saturday.

Temperatures around normal Wednesday will start a much colder trend
in the Thursday through Saturday time range, perhaps some 10 to 15
degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Conditions are starting out VFR, with mid
cloud bases in the 7000-10000 ft range. But conditions will
gradually deteriorate thru the wee morning hours and thru the day
today, as precip continues to moisten the low-levels. MVFR
conditions are expected to develop, as rain becomes steadier in the
9-12Z time frame, then into IFR mid- to late-morning. Rain will
begin to taper off this evening, but vsbys will remain low in
mist/fog. The guidance generally has LIFR CIGS developing from
midafternoon thru this evening. Winds will be generally NE to ENE
across the foothills and piedmont sites, and SE at KAVL.

Outlook: A brief lull is possible Monday, then another round of
heavier rain and widespread restrictions on Tuesday. Brief dry
weather is expected on Wednesday, with another front approaching
from the west.

Confidence Table...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       High  89%     Med   69%     Med   72%     High  83%
KGSP       High  83%     Med   76%     Med   71%     Med   78%
KAVL       High  85%     High  85%     High  80%     High  85%
KHKY       High  92%     Med   74%     Med   78%     High  83%
KGMU       High  87%     Med   74%     Med   71%     Med   78%
KAND       High  83%     Med   78%     Med   72%     Med   75%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG/HG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...TS
AVIATION...ARK



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