Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
FXUS62 KGSP 151949
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
249 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017
High pressure will build into the region today, with a warming
trend into the. Temperatures will be near normal through Thursday.
weekend. A weak low pressure system will cross the area Saturday and
Saturday night, with drying returning again for the beginning of
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 220 PM: Surface low pressure now sits over the Lowcountry,
but is moving offshore. In its place, high pressure will build
out of the central Plains and into the Deep South by midday
Thursday. Skies will become mostly clear overall. As evidenced by
the cloud streets on satellite imagery, however, there remains
plentiful low-level moisture upstream of the Appalachians, and
some upslope cloud cover will linger into evening. Min temps
tonight will be a couple degrees below normal. Max temps Thu are
expected to rebound a few degrees over the mountains and perhaps
1-2 degrees in the Piedmont, compared to today`s highs.
Cold advection is expected to bring gusty winds across the area
this afternoon and evening; the mountains however will see them
only begin to taper off by morning. The HRRR seems to be handling
the current winds well, and our short-term consensus blend (of which
HRRR is a big component) suggests gusts near-advisory criteria gusts
throughout the higher elevations of the northern mountains thru
morning. A Special Weather Statement highlights the wind concerns.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Wednesday: Mainly quiet weather through the
first half of the short term, beginning with northwest flow aloft in
the wake of the deep upper low, but with ridging building in over
the area on Friday as another cutoff upper low works its way
northeast from northern Mexico into the Southern Plains. Should see
a beautiful spring-like day on Friday, with increasing clouds
overnight as moisture from the Southern Plains cutoff starts
spreading over the area. Temps Friday night will be above normal
(get used to that...that`s sort of gonna be the case through the end
of the forecast). Most guidance seems to keep the bulk of the
convection along the coast, which may end up cutting off downstream
precipitation over the Southern Appalachians, but there should be at
least some light precip over our area associated with the passage of
the upper low itself. A good chunk of this may get hung up on the
upstream side of the mountains, and resulting pops are low chance at
best with pretty low corresponding QPF. Still well above normal for
highs on Saturday even with the increased cloud cover and reduced
thicknesses with strong low level WAA. However, even behind the
upper low, temps on Sunday will increase a few degrees higher with
high-amplitude ridging building in from the west.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 PM EST Wednesday: Quiet through the first part of the
extended with high-amplitude ridging dominating the area.
Thicknesses will increase quite a bit on Monday with highs a good 15
degrees above seasonal averages...but with that pattern in place the
current forecast highs may actually be too low, so will likely end
up being an uptick in highs over the next few forecast packages.
Beyond that, actually remarkable agreement in general synoptic
pattern and mass fields in the operational models with another
cutoff (been a lot of them lately) diving into the Southern Plains
and toward the Gulf Tuesday night. ECMWF is a little farther south
but again patterns are remarkably similar for that far out. Have
brought in token slight to low chance pops at the end of the period
as moisture overspreads the area again, but really neither model has
much in the way of QPF, rather just an increase in cloud cover.
Spring-like temperatures will continue with highs continuing 10-15
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: High pressure builds into the area over the
course of the period. Beneath the associated subsidence inversion,
some moisture remains trapped, and will cause some areas of
the Piedmont to see low MVFR cigs early this afternoon. These
conditions should improve by mid afternoon as drier air filters
in. Northwesterly winds with moderate gusts are expected through
tonight. Winds will weaken and back to near due west over the
Piedmont around daybreak, but for now it looks likely they will
stay N of W.
Outlook: Conditions remain dry through the end of the work week. The
next chance of restrictions looks to be on Saturday as an upper
disturbance approaches the area from the west.
19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAVL High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link: