Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000
FXUS62 KGSP 191403
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
903 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TODAY. A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND STALL IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM TEXAS TO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE WEATHER MAY REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 0900 AM EST...SAT PICS INDICATE CLEAR CONDITIONS AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION CALM/LIGHT WINDS. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY TRY TO
RECOVER TODAY FROM THE RECORD LOWS AT SOME PLACES...BUT MAX TEMPS
WILL BE 10-15 BELOW CLIMO.

AT 245 AM EST WEDNESDAY...A MEAN UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES EXITING ITS BASE...AND MOVING INTO IT. A
COLD IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THE
SHORTWAVES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR
AREA...EXTENDING UPSTREAM INTO THE OH AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL START TO DEAMPLIFY THIS EVENING. MORNING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND 14 DEGREES BELOW MID
WINTER NORMALS...AND BY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 8
DEGREES BELOW MID WINTER NORMALS. THE COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS WILL
APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE NW TODAY...SPREADING LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MEASURE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS OFFER SOME
SUPPORT FOR LIGHT SNOW TOWARD DAWN IN THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND 4 DEGREES BELOW MID WINTER NORMALS...AS
HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EST...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
DISSIPATE OVER THE NRN MTNS THU MORNING...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN
BRIEF AND ISOLATED MORNING FLURRIES IN THE NORTHERN NC MTNS.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT THROUGHOUT AS A
COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AREA FROM THE NW. EXPECT MAXES TO REBOUND
6 TO 9 DEGREES OVER WED VALUES.

HEIGHTS WILL RISE ON FRI AS A WEAK SRN PLAINS SHORTHWAVE DAMPENS
WHILE MOVING EAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER TO THE N OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS THE SFC FRONT REMAINS STALLED IN THE VICINITY.
EXPECT PERSISTENCE ON MAX TEMPS FRI AFTN...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
CATEGORY OF REBOUND ON MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM EST...A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH TX ON SAT. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING OVER
THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL FLIRT WITH THE WRN MTNS ON
SATURDAY...BUT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
DAY. THE SFC HIGH CENTER WILL MIGRATE FARTHER OFF THE E COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH A SFC RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA.
THE PLAINS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS
IT GETS ABSORBED BACK INTO THE LARGER AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIGGING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DEEP WARM
CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY TRAVERSE THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING IS POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN TIER...BUT THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD SURGE
NWD FAIRLY QUICKLY GIVEN THE FAR OFFSHORE PARENT HIGH POSITION. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF EXHIBIT LIMITED INSTABILITY S OF THE RAPIDLY
RETREATING WEDGE FRONT...BUT SHEAR WILL BE BRIEFLY IMPRESSIVE
MIDDAY. THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...HOWEVER...FOR AN HWO
MENTION OF SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY.

TROUGHING WILL LINGER TO THE WEST MON THROUGH TUE...WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE PERSISTENT GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
HARD TO TIME...BUT CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LOOK BEST ON
MONDAY WITH A POSSIBLE FROPA...THAN ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE POST
FRONTAL DRYING AND VEERED WSW FLOW POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
HIGH ELEVATION MIXED PRECIPITATION RETURNING LATE TUESDAY IF THE
COLD AIR RETURNS RAPIDLY ENOUGH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SSW TODAY...WITH LIMITED GUSTS
DURING THE DAY. THE DRY AIR MASS DOES NOT FAVOR DAYBREAK FOG EITHER
THIS MORNING OR TOMORROW MORNING. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS LOWERING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CIG...AND EVEN THE LOWEST CLOUD HEIGHTS THURSDAY
MORNING WOULD BE ABOVE RESTRICTIONS HEIGHTS ANYWAY.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A CLOUD COVER LOWERING AHEAD
OF A FRONT...BUT CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE. CLOUDS HEIGHTS WOULD BE A BIT TOO HIGH ANYWAY IN THE
FOOTHILLS. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL NOT SUPPORT DAYBREAK VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EITHER THIS MORNING OR THURSDAY MORNING. NW WINDS WILL
BACK TO SW AFTER DAWN...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY...THEN WILL VEER NW WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AT KAVL BEFORE DAWN
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   61%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY...NOVEMBER 19TH...

GSP  18 1903
CLT  18 2008
AVL  13 1903

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JAT
CLIMATE...


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