Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000
FXUS62 KGSP 070856
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
356 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A drying trend will continue for several days as high pressure
eases into the area. A reinforcing cold front will arrive tonight
and early Thursday, bringing the coldest airmass so far this
season into the area. High and low temperatures well below normal
will persist Thursday night through Saturday before a moderating
trend commences early next week when the next cold front arrives.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EST Wednesday: Low pressure that brought us all the
rain yesterday continues to push east with strong WSW flow aloft
over us. Plentiful low level moisture remains in place across the
area and with light winds at the surface this has created a perfect
environment for fog and low clouds, with visibilities 1/4 mile or
less for many sites across the Piedmont. Went ahead and issued a
Dense Fog Advisory for all the NC/SC/GA Piedmont, even though
technically not ALL the areas meet criteria, it`s close enough and
the fog continues to expand. Fog should burn off quickly later this
morning with temperatures rebounding to seasonal normals.

Meanwhile, the next weather-maker in the form of a strong upper low
will be sliding east across the U.S./Canada border, with a very
strong and very cold Arctic high diving into the High Plains late
today. The front ahead of the high isn`t really all that wet and
with each run they`ve trended drier. WPC doesn`t even bring any QPF
into the forecast area anymore, but for the sake of consistency did
blend in a little from the previous run (what`s 0.01" among
friends?). What little moisture there is associated with the front
will all get squeezed out over the mountains (though the rest of us
could see an increase in clouds overnight tonight). It`ll be cold
enough that the higher elevations will likely see some snow showers
or at least flurries, but again just not enough moisture for any
accumulations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EST Wednesday...A broad upper trough will drift east
across the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday thru
Friday. This trough will bring a strong, but rather dry, cold front
thru the region on Thursday. Strong 850 mb CAA will ramp up across
the NC mountains during the day, resulting in gusty winds and
falling temps. The piedmont will see temps near normal, while the
mountains will be about 10 degrees below normal Thursday. The gusty
winds will linger thru the overnight in the high terrain, but become
fairly light in the piedmont. Temps will fall into the teens in the
mountains and 20s piedmont. The combination of wind and temps will
result in wind chills in the 0 to -10 F range toward daybreak
Friday. Wind chill advisory is -5, and generally only elevations
above 5000 ft look to get that cold.

On Friday...a modified arctic air mass will build in from the NW.
Winds will gradually subside in the mountains, but it will still
feel brisk, with temps at least 10-15 degrees below normal, despite
sunny skies. The center of the high settles over the central
Appalachians by 12z Saturday. Lighter winds will keep wind chills
above advisory criteria, but overall, it will be a chilly night.
Lows in the teens to mid 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 AM EST Wednesday:  The very cold airmass in place Saturday
under surface high pressure centered over our region will move east
and offshore from the mid Atlantic on Sunday. This will bring a
change in wind to a more southerly direction resulting in a
significant warming trend to around normal to start the week.  The
upper pattern will be nearly zonal from this weekend to mid
week across our nation with an average slight trough east of the
Rockies. The next shortwave will cross the Plains Sunday with some
increased in moisture coming out of the Gulf across the SE. Expect
some upslope showers ahead of this system to occur late Sunday and
Sunday night from near Clayton GA to Tryon NC. The southerly 925mb
wind of 15 to 30kts will shift to SW early Monday ending the upslope
affect as it will be more parallel to the ridge lines. Both the GFS
and ECMWF thins out or slightly dries out the approaching frontal
precip band Sunday night into Monday. The GFS dries it out a bit
more. Either way there will be scattered showers over the whole area
but more initially over the NC mountains. There may be some very
brief upslope precip along the TN and NC border north of AVL late
Monday but that is mostly shown on the EC which may be the lower
confidence model. The newest GFS dries our area out rapidly late
Monday with no upslope in Mtns. High pressure builds in briefly on
Tuesday then a mostly dry cold front is nearing from the NW late
Tuesday night. Increase in clouds as a result.

Temperatures of 10 to 15 degrees below normal Saturday will modify
to near normal for Max Temps Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Update to KCLT TAF for the 09z AMD is to take
TEMPO VLIFR and make that prevailing. Obviously confidence has
increased and widespread VLIFR restrictions are in place across the
Piedmont. Should improve by mid-morning. Otherwise, drier air will
push into the area later today which should scour out any low clouds
but then another wave of moisture associated with a strong but
mainly dry front will lead to increasing clouds again toward the end
of the period, and thus some MVFR has been introduced. Except at
KAVL, winds generally lgt/vrb through the period with some variation
in predominant direction depending on location of surface features.

Outlook: Another front will approach late tonight and early Thursday
with some light precip/restrictions possible. Dry and much colder
through the weekend.

Confidence Table...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       High  84%     High  98%     High 100%     High  96%
KGSP       Med   65%     High  95%     Med   71%     High  94%
KAVL       Med   61%     High 100%     High  85%     High 100%
KHKY       Low   32%     High 100%     High 100%     High  85%
KGMU       Low   57%     High  95%     Med   71%     High  81%
KAND       Low   50%     High  85%     High  95%     Med   75%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ018-026-
     028-029.
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for SCZ004>014-
     019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...TDP


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