Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 060541
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1241 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track northeast of our region today with high
pressure building across the area tonight and Wednesday.  Expect a
strong cold front to approach from Tennessee Wednesday night and
cross the Carolinas on Thursday. This front will bring the coldest
air of the season so far for Thursday night through Saturday.
Temperatures returning to near normal early next week ahead of the
next cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 945 PM, The heavy rainfall rates that were just upstream of
the forecast area a couple of hours ago have generally dissipated
and/or scooted by just to the south of the area, aligning with
deeper convergence in the vicinity of coastal front/TMB, and toward
an area of healthier elevated instability. In fact, the highest
rainfall rates across our area so far have been along and near the
southern escarpment of the Blue Ridge, where around a quarter of an
inch has fallen in a couple of hours in response to an increasing
E/SE upslope flow in the lowest 5 kft. Additionally, a back edge to
this round of precip was already pushing into the forecast area from
north GA. Based upon these trends, qpf has been scaled back
overnight, although storm totals of 1-1.25 inches still appear
likely across roughly the SE half of the forecast area. Despite an
apparent incipient lull in the precip, strengthening upslope and
upglide flow should yield enough coverage of light rain to warrant
maintaining likely to cat pops through the overnight. Chances for
more substantial precip will ramp up again from the west toward
daybreak, as surface wave lifts northeast into/across the TN
Valley.

Otherwise, the downstream ridge will push a relatively weak surface
high across PA and the nrn Mid-Atlantic to New England. The surface
high should bridge over the Appalachians through early evening as
precip develops up from the SW. The result will be the development
of a sort of hybrid cold air damming wedge this evening that will
control our weather through Tuesday morning at least. The upper wave
will deamplify as it crosses the region during the middle of the day
on Tuesday. After that happens, we quickly lose the isentropic lift,
and the cold air damming should start to erode. Precip chances will
quickly taper back down from the SW, to where we retain only a
chance on the TN border as NW flow upslope begins in the wake of the
wave`s passing. As it stands right now, we might see some elevated
instability on Tuesday morning, especially over northeast GA and
upstate SC, so thunder cannot be ruled out. However, the threat for
severe storms appears to be low. Precip amts also look as though the
flood threat will be minimal based on the intensity and duration.
Wind will be strong at high elevations, but not nearly to the point
where a wind advisory would be entertained. Expect a low diurnal
range to temps tonight and Tuesday, with high temps again fairly
tricky, depending on when the cold air damming ends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM Mon: Coastal low pressure will be pulling away from the
area Tuesday evening, with low-level flow quickly veering as the
cold front associated with the Great Lakes low pushes across the
mountains. Almost simultaneously, however, a flat ridge becomes
re-established over the Southeast in the wake of the low, and
upglide is initiated over the front. During the day Wednesday, this
expands and strengthens gradually as a shortwave develops over the
lower Mississippi Valley along a reinforcing cold front. Moisture
over our area remains confined to a relatively shallow layer,
and the upglide is not particularly strong. Therefore a modest
amount of cloud cover is expected to persist, though without a
mentionable chance of precip. Min temps Wed morning will be a few
degrees above normal; maxes will be just slightly above normal.

That shortwave begins to approach from the west late Wed into early
Thu, driving a slow increase in the magnitude of the upglide and
moisture advection over our area. Colder air begins to push into the
mountains around daybreak, taking most of the day to push across the
whole CWFA. Moisture is still not that plentiful, but there will
be a tiny bit of shallow instability ahead of the front. Showery
precip is expected at best as the front crosses. Temps will be
too warm for any wintry precip at the beginning of the event, but
in the wake of the front, the freezing level will drop through the
higher elevations of the WNC mtns Thu morning, reaching the valleys
late in the day after chances have peaked. Wet bulbing might have
an effect on how fast the changeover occurs. The saturated layer
currently looks unlikely to reach high enough to get good crystal
growth; it is possible freezing drizzle or light freezing rain will
occur in non-upslope areas early in the day; precip may just end
before actually changing over to snow. To keep things simple--and
because upsloping may make up for the relatively warm soundings
in producing ice crystals--I have reflected either rain or snow
in the forecast, but without any accumulation.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Monday: Lingering and weak NWF snow showers across
the nrn mtns will begin the ext period. The models are showing a
shallow moisture layer btw 1-3 Kft through 06z Fri...and with little
to no Glakes fetch and minimal dynamic support...any accum -shra
will drop to nil through daybreak. Perhaps an inch or so at most
across the favored higher terrain spots. After that...a strong 1040
mb Canadian high will build across the plains and ridge into the
mtns. This will create a decent p/grad as well as instigate good
llvl caa. Mtn top temps should drop into the lower teens and with
winds gusting to arnd 30 kts...wind chill values will reach adv
levels at elevations above 3.5 Kft. Thus the HWO mention will
continue.

A cold day Fri and another cold night is in store Fri night as the
sfc high settles over the FA...however reduced winds will keep
apparent temps above adv levels. A dry cold day on Sat with highs
continuing 10-15 degrees below normal into Sun. There will be an
increased chance of precip Sun afternoon thru Mon as the next system
develops to the west. The models have varying ideas as to the
strength and placement with this feature with the GFS much further
north and less moist than the slower ECMWF. Thus...will continue an
even model blend and raise pops a little across the wrn zones. The
p/type shud be either rain/snow across the mtns with no sigfnt
accums expected....perhaps an inch or so across the higher elevs of
the nrn mtns.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Area of RA continues to push east, with only
scattered -RA affecting the TAFs sites. This will be short-lived
however with next slug of moisture lifting NE out of GA. Cigs and
vsbys will drop with the rain, with IFR expected everywhere. LIFR
cannot be ruled out but will continue to monitor upstream conditions.
NE winds will intensify through the early morning hours as CAD
strengthens, with some low-end gusts possible; exception will be
KAVL with SE down-valley winds. Rain will begin tapering off from
the west around daybreak but strong CAD wedge in place will keep IFR
to low MVFR cigs in through the day. With the passage of the cold
front late in the period, cigs begin to lift for western sites, but
should still see some vsby restrictions with low-level moisture in
place.

Outlook: The cold front will scour out the cold air damming air mass
and low clouds late tonight, with improving conditions on Wednesday.
Another front will approach on Thursday with some restrictions
possible. Dry and much colder through the weekend.

Confidence Table...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       High  87%     Low   55%     High  94%     High 100%
KGSP       High  81%     Med   61%     High  87%     Med   72%
KAVL       Med   62%     Med   61%     Med   62%     High  89%
KHKY       Low   56%     Med   78%     High  87%     Med   72%
KGMU       Med   75%     Low   55%     High  87%     Med   72%
KAND       Med   69%     Low   55%     Med   69%     High  83%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...TDP


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