Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000
FXUS62 KGSP 241709
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
109 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY.
AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WORK
WEEK...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY AND STALL NEAR THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1715 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE...
ACCOUNTING FOR PERSISTENT COVER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CHARLOTTE
AREA. WIDNS WERE UPDATED TO BLEND IN THE LASTEST ADJMAV...PRESERVING
MODEST WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

AS OF 635 AM...OTHER THAN SOME FOG DEVELOPING IN SOME OF THE MTN
VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS ARE CLEAR ACRS THE CWFA.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP FOR A NICE COOL START
TO THE DAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WHILE A SFC
HIGH SETTLES ALONG THE EAST COAST. SO IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER GORGEOUS
DAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SET UP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TONIGHT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
INCREASE IN STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN ZONES AND THE USUAL
SWLY UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPS...ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL OCCUPY THE EASTERN
U.S. ON MONDAY. WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TO 850 MB HIGH CENTER
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL START TO
BRING MOISTURE AND MODEST DAYTIME INSTABILITY BACK TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY. AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CLIMB AT LEAST A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO.

UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RISE FURTHER FROM THE WEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT
BASIN REGION EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN
WESTERLY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AND HELP TO FOCUS ANY
UPSLOPE TRIGGERING ON THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS IMPROVING MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT STALLING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WED. THIS SHOULD KEEP
ANY ATTENDANT UPGLIDE MOISTURE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AS WELL AND
PERMIT VERY WARM MAXES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES
SHOULD BUBBLE BACK TO 1500 J/KG OR GREATER WITH SCATTERED COVECTIVE
COVERAGE DEVELOPING DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED PERIODS. MAX TEMPS
WILL CLIMB TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE PLAINS SYSTEM WILL LIFT EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND FILL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST OF THE ENERGY
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION BUT MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE PASSING SURFACE WAVE MAY POOL ALONG THE MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY...AND AN EMBEDDED TRAILING TROUGH AXIS IN THE WNW FLOW
COULD CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH A DECAYING COLD FRONT.
WILL FEATURE THE MOST SOLID CHANCE POPS IN NW SECTIONS AND TAPER
DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST. WELL ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

A 500 MB RIDGE WILL BECOME RESURGENT ON SATURDAY AS A FULL LATITUDE
WAVE AMPLIFIES OVER THE INTER MOUNTAIN REGION OUT WEST. DRY SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...SSE WINDS WILL VEER SW LATE TONIGHT WEST OF
KCLT...AND SW AT KCLT AFTER DAWN. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED OT BE MODEST.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW THE PRIMARY CLOUD BASE TO BE AROUND 4000 FT
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND AROUND 3000 FT AT KAVL...BUT CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE TOO LIMITED TO PRODUCE CIGS. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS BRIEF LOW
VFR VSBY BEFORE DAWN AT KAVL AND KAND.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM ON TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     LOW   55%     LOW   55%     LOW   58%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JAT



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