Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000
FXUS62 KGSP 291743
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
143 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM...SUNNY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
FILTERED LIGHTLY THROUGH THIN CIRRUS. TEMP TRENDS ARE ON TRACK FOR
MAXES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE MTN VALLEYS SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT. THINK THIS WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN AN
INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. ANY PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL MOST LIKELY NOT
REACH THE MTNS BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. THE INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SEASONALLY MILD WITH LOW TEMPS NEARLY
TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300AM EDT FRIDAY MORNING...NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO
BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A GOOD FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT IN MUCH OF THE
SE CONUS. HEAVIEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS QG-FORCING WITH
THE UPPER WAVE REACHES THE APPALACHIANS...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING ENDS SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR TUESDAY...BUT
PASSAGE OF A SMALLER UPPER IMPULSE COULD CREATE SOME SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH MUCH LESS BL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  TOTAL
PRECIP EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS AROUND AN INCH.

WITH GOOD DEEP BL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THE SATURDAY-MONDAY
SYSTEM...CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL BE RISING AS WELL, REACHING AN
LI OF AROUND -4 SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND -5 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BULK
SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE AT AROUND 30KTS SATURDAY AND
35KTS ON SUNDAY.  NONETHELESS...THE DOMINANT FORM OF PRECIP. SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME LOW-END
SEVERE HAIL AND MICRO/MACRO BURSTS POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 10 DEGREES FROM THE LOW 80S SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY DOWN TO THE LOW 70S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA MONDAY AFTERNOON.  EC MODEL IS SLOWER WITH FROPA MONDAY THAN
THE GFS MODEL...THOUGH OTHER FEATURES ARE SIMILAR THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.  EC AND GFS DIFFER CONSIDERABLE FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND IN
THE DETAILS OF HOW A DEEP SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300AM FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES DECLINE WITH MAJOR COLD FROPA
MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES ALSO DECLINE BY 10 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.  TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY IN THE GFS MODEL ON
TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY AS A SMALL
UPPER SYSTEM CROSSES SOUTHERN STATES.  PRECIP AMOUNTS WITH ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO SCOURING OF MOISTURE BY COLD FRONT.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE EC-GFS DISAGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE EC MODEL ACTUALLY HAVING PRECIP ON TUESDAY.  BOTH MODELS
TEND TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...BUT DIFFER IN MAJOR WAYS IN DETAILS OF TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES AND PRECIP.  CURRENT FORECAST IS A
BLEND OF THE POSSIBILITIES...WITH SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN MOST DAYS.
THOUGH THE EC MODEL IS WETTER THROUGH THE PERIOD...NEITHER IT NOR
THE GFS MODEL HAVE MORE THAN A HALF INCH FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
DUE TO A LACK OF GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING/THICKENING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED...AND POSSIBLY INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT W/SW AT
ALL TERMINALS BY MID-AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE BY
LATE EVENING...THEN PICKING UP OUT OF THE E/NE SAT MORNING.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER/OCCL CONVECTION/RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN FROM LATE SAT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
A FRONT BECOMES STALLED NEAR THE AREA. DEFINITIVE DRYING DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY UNTIL AT LEAST MID-WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 04-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      89 1970     46 1999     63 1956     28 1967
   KCLT      91 1888     48 1999     65 1994     33 1973
                                        1991
                                        1914
   KGSP      91 1917     47 1999     67 1975     32 1992

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/WJM
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...WJM
AVIATION...JDL
CLIMATE...



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