Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 211838

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
238 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016

A cold front will push through the area from the northwest later
this evening. High pressure will then build in behind the front
on Monday, bringing cooler and drier air to the area for most of
the week. Another weak cold front will approach the Western Carolinas
by the end of the work week.


As of 235 PM EDT Sunday: Convection firing along a pre-frontal
trough is moving across the area at this time. Expect another round
of convection later this afternoon and early evening as the actual
cold front moves across the area. Analyzed DCAPE is much high than
forecast, with current values 800 J/kg or greater along and south of
I-85. The best effective bulk shear is currently over the NC
mountains and should remain across NC through the event. This could
lead to an overlap of both parameters across the I-77 corridor late
this afternoon or early evening. Even though that would be the most
likely location for any severe storms, NE GA and the Upstate could
also see a damaging downburst given the increasing DCAPE. Heavy rain
remains a concern as well with the deep moisture and 2 inch PW
values. However, the threat is limited with fast storm motion from
the increase steering flow. That said, training of cells from
different rounds of convection could lead to some excessive rainfall.

The cold front sweeps across the area this evening taking convection
and clouds with it. The gusty SW winds will turn NW and diminish
through the night. The clearing skies and moist ground could lead
patchy fog formation, but the downsloping NW winds should keep any
widespread problems at bay. The mountian valleys have the best
chance of seeing any fog, but it could be more in the form of low
clouds. Lows will be near or a little below normal.

Dry and cooler high pressure begins to build into the area Monday.
There could be some lingering moisture leading to afternoon clouds
across the Upper Savannah River Valley and the mountains of NE GA
and the Upstate. However, no precipitation is expected. Temps should
end up a couple of degrees below normal with low humidity levels.


As of 230 PM EDT Sunday:  The short term fcst period kicks off
on Monday evening looking relatively quiet.  An H5 trof axis will
continue ejecting to the northeast across Nova Scotia, while heights
rise over the OH/TN valleys as well as the mid Atlantic states.
At the surface, an old cold front will linger across portions of
the deep south while sprawling cool/dry high pressure settles
over New England on Tuesday, eventually sliding offshore into
Wednesday.  As such, the only chances for precipitation look to
be on the periphery of the high, across the upper Savannah River
valley into the sw NC mtns each day.  Meanwhile another H5 trof
and associated surface cold front will slide south out of Canada,
eventually approaching the OH valley by periods end.  All in all,
the fcst will feature slight/chance pops across the a fore mentioned
zones, while remaining dry elsewhere.  Dewpoints in the lower/mid
60s combined with below normal temperatures should yield fairly
comfortable conditions through the period.


As of 2 PM EDT Sunday: the medium range fcst picks up at 00Z on
Thursday with upper ridging in place over the eastern CONUS and
a closed upper low moving eastward across the US/Canada border.
Over the next couple of days the ridge flattens a bit, after which
the latest model guidance restrengthens it as we move into the
weekend. At the sfc, high pressure will be sliding off the East Coast
and a relatively dry cold front will approach the fcst area from the NW.
The front is still expected to approach the fcst area by late Thursday
and move thru the CWFA on Friday. The deeper moisture associated with
the front remains relegated mostly to the north. Behind the front,
another round of high pressure will settle over the region for the
weekend. No major changes were needed for the sensible fcst with
slight to solid chance POPs over parts of the high terrain Fri, Sat,
and Sun. Temps will steadily warm thru the period with highs starting
out around climatology and ending up at least a category above climo
over the weekend.


At KCLT and elsewhere: Low VFR CU filling in as convection
developing over the mountains begins moving east across the area.
Wind gusts beginning to pick up as well. This means little update
needed to the afternoon portion of the new TAFs. Cold front helping
to drive the convection should move east of the area early this
evening ending precip and turning winds NW. Winds drop off and turn
N then NE overnight. Expect an uptick in wind speeds with mixing
after daybreak on monday. Low end gusts possible as well. Clouds
should move out overnight with the front. Low level drying should
develop as well, keeping chance of any restrictions low outside of
the mountains. However, still looks good for at least IFR stratus in
the mountain valleys with fog possible. Have indicated this at KAVL
but kept restrictions to MVFR for now.

Outlook: The dry air will remain in place across the area resulting
in fair weather through at least mid-week.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     Low   55%     Med   71%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:




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