Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 251035

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
635 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Seasonal and dry high pressure will remain over the region through
Wednesday...before a weak cold front crosses the area Thursday. Warm
high pressure returns Friday before another weak frontal passage
occurs late Sunday.


As of 630 AM EDT...all clear across the western Carolinas and
northeast Georgia. The surface cold front continues to drop
southward of the fcst area.

As expected, our weather should be fair, dry, and quiet for the next
24 hours as we remain under NW flow aloft with an upper ridge axis
approaching from the west. This will support high pressure ridging
down all the way from the Gt Lakes and wrn Ontario through tonight.
Some weak downslope flow will offset any cold advection, so temps
should stay fairly close to normal under a bright sunny sky today.
Expect tonight to be seasonally cool, perhaps enough for a few
patches of frost in the normally cooler spots across the NC
foothills and nw Piedmont. However, the extent will not be great
enough to warrant an advisory.


As of 130 AM Tuesday: A mixed cP airmass will continue to keep
temps arnd normal Wed with a little warming expected on Thu as the
llvl flow shifts sw/ly. A weakly forced cold front will cross the
area Thu and increased deep layered moisture along with some
lowering of sfc theta/e will be the main factors in holding max
temps right arnd normal. With a limited GOM fetch...not expecting
much precip with this front...mainly across the higher terrain where
generally 0.25 inches or less will be possible locally. Will keep
pops in the low chance range mtns/fhills and slt chc non/mtns
throughout the fropa. The embedded s/w driving the front remains the front should push east of the fcst area by late
Thu. Winds will increase within the bndry layer Thu allowing for
relatively stronger winds mixed to the sfc producing low-end
afternoon gusts most locales.


As of 150 AM Tuesday: The post cold-frontal airmass will actually
modify warmer on Fri as the upper pattern remains in a strong subs
pattern east of a strong sub-trop high center. A small scale sfc
Canadian hipres center will have little effect behind the front as
it/s absorbed within dominate Atl ridging. Soundings show deep
layered drying which will allow for very good insol through the
weekend. With downslope warming assoc with llvl nw/ly flow...max
temps shud reach arnd 10 degrees above each day...with some relative
cooling on Mon as sfc ridging assoc with a strong ern Quebec parent
high likely builds in from the NE during the day. No frost concerns
thru the period as mins are held in the lower 40s across the higher


At KCLT and elsewhere...VFR through the period. High pressure well
to our north will keep a light wind coming from a north to
northeasterly direction through the morning hours, gradually veering
to east as a chunk of the high splits off across the Mid-Atlantic
region. Late in the day, around 21Z to 23Z, this could allow wind to
come around to ESE, but the wind speed will be 5 kt or less. A few
cirrus will arrive from the west in the mid/late afternoon.

Outlook: Dry high pressure will persist through Wednesday night. A
fast-moving cold front will cross the area Thursday or Thursday
night, but with limited moisture. Dry conditions return for next

Confidence Table...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:




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