Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 102327

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
627 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

Below normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist through
Monday. Mountain snow chances will return Tuesday as cold front
moves through the area. Dry high pressure will builds back in


As of 5pm EST Sunday:  Only minimal changes for this update to align
temperatues slightly better with obs.  Some possibility for fog in
areas that had substantial snow melt today, but models all keep
enough dewpoint depression through the night to make fog prospects
rather speculative.

Should be a relatively tranquil near term as upper flow becomes
zonal before another trough develops to our west late Monday. That
said, there could be some patchy black ice on secondary and rural
roads where significant snow pack remains. There will be a weak wave
moving through the departing trough tonight. This will bring some
low level moisture to the mountains and mid and high level moisture
elsewhere. Don`t expect anything more than just some passing clouds
tonight and Monday. Surface pattern will be dominated by a weakening
lee trough creating generally SW winds outside of the mountains and
NW winds across the mountains. Lows tonight will be 5 to 10 degrees
below normal. Highs Monday near to slightly below normal.


As of 145 PM Sun: A sharp shortwave trough will swing across the
southern Appalachians Tuesday morning, accompanied by a cold front
and another prolonged period of CAA. The ensuing northwesterly winds
still support upslope showers along the Tenn border between late
Monday night and about daybreak Wednesday, with the best overlap
of winds and moisture looking to be sometime Tuesday evening. The
showers will mostly fall as snow, though a partial change to rain
is expected in lower elevations during the day. Model trends in QPF
remain slightly downward, and it still looks like snow totals will
be below advisory criteria. Temps will be quite cold, more than 10
degrees below normal, throughout the area Wednesday morning. The
combination of cold temps and brisk winds still could result in
sub-zero wind chills in elevations above 3500 ft. Wind gusts may
also reach wind advisory criteria in spots. These occurrences
could both be handled by a Wind Chill Advisory at some point,
if forecast trends hold.


As of 2:45 PM EST Sunday: The upper level pattern still features a
northwesterly flow aloft across the eastern CONUS for the period in
the latter half of the upcoming new work week. Meanwhile, a parade
of energy spokes were riding the flow down into our forecast area
(FA) during this time frame.

At the surface Wednesday night and Thursday a series of weak surface
boundaries/wind shift areas will scoot across the region in the mean
flow. Moisture will be limited therefore we will maintain a dry
forecast at this time.

Meanwhile for Thursday night and Friday the GFS and Canadian models
were advertising a stronger shot of energy, helping to back the mean
flow, and rotating into our FA.  Moisture will have to come with the
upper level source, since the Gulf of Mexico is not involved. We
basically allowed POPS to ramp up Thursday night and Friday midday
(chance POPS at the moment) across the western North Carolina
mountains. We did not fan the precipitation to the east, in light of
the European response which was not as robust as the GFS and the
Canadian models. Absent the European models, other deterministic
guidance down the road might suggest raising POPS and upping
potential snowfall in the mountains. Elsewhere maintained a dry
forecast, although will have to watch for some steeper lapse rates
and perhaps some spotty showers of rain or snow in other sections of
our FA.

Once this feature moves through, Friday night and Saturday should be
dry. Next on the weather agenda is the system for Saturday night and
Sunday coming from the southwest. The models show a large spread, as
a result we kept POPS on the low side.

Temperatures will vacillate with each passing system during this
time frame, but generally near or just below normal.


At KCLT and Elsewhere:  Good VFR conditions are forecast for the
next 24 hours at all stations, with the region dry and in the
transition region between two synoptic systems, the first that
passed through on Friday, and the next one due in later in the week.
Light and variable northerly to southwesterly winds are expected.
Tonight, a few high clouds will pass over the region, now seen
on satellite, embedded in northwesterly flow aloft.

Outlook: Dry conditions expected at all sites through the early part
of the week. Another NW flow snow event could take place Tuesday and
Tuesday night, then again Thursday night and Friday, with some brief
restrictions possible at KAVL.

Confidence Table...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       High  81%     High  82%     Med   68%     Low   56%
KGSP       Med   70%     Med   75%     High  83%     Med   64%
KAVL       High  94%     High  85%     Med   70%     High  87%
KHKY       High 100%     High  83%     Med   66%     High 100%
KGMU       Med   76%     High  86%     High  85%     Med   63%
KAND       Med   76%     Med   65%     High  90%     Med   61%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:




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