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000
FXUS62 KGSP 100511
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
111 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
TURNING COLDER LATE WEEK FOLLOWING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1 AM...THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE COOLING A LITTLE SLOWER THAT THE FORECAST
RATE. I WILL ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS...MIN TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SHOULD VERIFY WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INITIALIZES MONDAY
EVENING WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LEADING TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE
WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROF AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES.  IN RESPONSE...A SURFACE LOW WILL
FORM/DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WHILE WARM ADVECTION REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OUT AHEAD
OF ABOVE MENTIONED GULF DISTURBANCE.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST GA...THE WESTERN UPSTATE...AND
THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAIN INTO TUESDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO ABOVE
MENTION WAA LEADING TO INCREASED SKY COVER AND ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS RADIATIONAL COOLING IS LIMITED.
LIKEWISE...EXPECTING INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO PROMOTE UPSLOPE
INDUCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST NC AND NORTHEAST GA MOUNTAINS
BY EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE POPS BEGIN TO RAMP UP TO
LIKELY LEVELS THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS.

MEANWHILE...THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH AND INTO
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.  AT THIS POINT
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTRUDING INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC BY MIDDAY WITH SCATTERED PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...THUS KEPT
POPS ELEVATED TO LIKELY LEVELS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.  LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY AS HEATING OCCURS DESPITE WIDESPREAD CU THEREBY
WARRANTING MENTION OF THUNDER AS MUCAPE WILL EXCEED 600J/KG ACROSS
MOST OF THE WARM SECTOR REGION.  AT THIS TIME...THINK THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AS UPDRAFTS WILL BE WEAK/SHALLOW
THUS HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION LATE ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH POPS DECREASING RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WARRANT AT LEAST HIGH
END CHANCE LEVEL POPS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NC.  BY THAT TIME COLD ADVECTION WILL
HAVE LOWERED SNOW LEVELS ENOUGH SUCH THAT AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF
SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT SUNDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PULL AWAY OFF
THE ERN SEABOARD ON THU...LEAVING DRY PROFILES IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA AS COLD HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W. ANY LINGERING
LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE IN THE COLD AIR THU MORNING SHOULD BE
QUITE SHALLOW AND BRIEF ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...WITH ONLY VERY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...AND NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP SOME 20 DEG C
BELOW WED VALUES ACROSS THE REGION TO LEAD TO UNSEASONABLY COLD MAX
TEMPS THU AFTN DESPITE THE SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING E OF THE
MTNS.

RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FRI THROUGH
SAT...WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK IMPULSES S OF A GREAT LAKES LOW RIPPLING
THROUGH OUR AREA. SOME TRANSIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE CLOUD BRIEFLY
CONTRIBUTE TO SKY COVER AT TIMES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE OFFSHORE AND PERMIT A
STEADY WARMING TREND BACK TOWARD CLIMO UNDER RETURNING SW FLOW.

ENERGY WILL START DIGGING SWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY...WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING EWD INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE
LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL ACTIVATE EWD TOWARD THE WRN
CAROLINAS. THE DEVELOPING MOIST UPGLIDE SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE MTNS LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SKY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM CLEAR TO FEW250. AT THE
SFC...A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...PEAKING
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT NNW
WINDS AT KAVL...AND BACKING TO SW BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. KCLT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF WEST CROSS WINDS AROUND MID
DAY. DEEP MIXING COULD RESULT IN MARGINAL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE. RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...NED