Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000
FXUS62 KGSP 080230
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1030 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
0230 UTC UPDATE...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AND POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED THERE ACCORDINGLY.
THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG LIVED AS HEATING HAS ABATED.

AT 1000 PM EDT MONDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE IN THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY.
CONVECTION WAS MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG A COLD FRONT IN THE OH RIVER
VALLEY...AND NEAR THE SC COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEEK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SKIES WERE NEARLY CLEAR OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NE GA WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL WARM NOSE AND THE LOSS OF HEATING...CONVECTION
IS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS WERE NOTED MOVING NE FROM
CENTRAL FA INTO SC...BUT CLOUDS COVER SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. DESPITE
LIGHT WINDS AND A LACK OF CLOUDS...ELEVATED DEW POINTS WILL LIMIT
COOING OVERNIGHT...AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND MID
SUMMER NORMALS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIMITED TO MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS WHERE COOL AIR POOLS...ESPECIALLY THE SW NC MOUNTAINS WHERE
DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHER.

MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO DAMPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY E ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUE
IN THE MEAN TROUGH ALOFT. A MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS...
BUT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE AFTN. ALL IN ALL...THERE SHOULD BE
MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TUE AFTN...WITH THE FOCUS REMAINING OVER
THE MTNS. MAX TEMPS WILL GAIN ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES...WITH MID
90S LIKELY IN SE SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MON...A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY
MID WEEK. THE SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH
SHOULD REACH THE NC MOUNTAINS LATE TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT IS THEN
FORECAST TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE
GA WED INTO WED NIGHT. WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TUE NIGHT AS SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY
REACH THAT AREA BY DAYBREAK. WITH THE FRONT PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...EXPECT THAT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE QUITE GOOD OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON WED AND POPS WILL REFLECT
THAT. DESPITE THE FRONT PROBABLY REACHING THE PIEDMONT BY LATE WED
AFTERNOON...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUDNERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED THERE DUE TO DEEP LAYER W-SW FLOW PROVIDING A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A 5%
THREAT AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS ON WED.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT ON THU. THE NAM SETTLES THE BOUNDARY
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THU...WHILE THE GFS/EC HAVE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING SATIONARY ACROSS THE UPSTATE INTO NE GA.
SENSIBLE WEATHER-WISE THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE
WED NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND FLOW REMAINING DOWNSLOPE IN
NATURE. ON THU....COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
GREATEST OVER THE PIEDMONT AREAS NEAR THE FRONT. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE
JUST SHY OF CLIMO ON WED AND A CATEGORY OR SO BELOW AVERAGE ON
THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THE EAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS
EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE EASTERN
TROUGH MAY BEGIN TO REASSERT ITSELF SOMETIME THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED
FROM EASTERN NC...SW THROUGH THE MIDLANDS ON FRIDAY. IT IS THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NE GA ON SAT AND DISSIPATE AS THE BERMUDA HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE SE U.S. THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY
OVER AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. ON SAT AND SUN...A
MORE TYPICAL JULY WEATHER PATTERN WILL ENSUE WITH SCATTERERD
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH BY NEXT MONDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF THE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO START THE PERIOD
A CATEGORY BELOW AVERAGE...BUT WARM TO NEAR CLIMO ON SAT AND THEN A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. CONVECTION HAS TAPERED OFF THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF RESTRICITONS...AND WITH NO RAIN HAVING FALLEN
AT THE FIELD...THIS WILL BE ACCEPTED. LIGHT S TO SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...INCREASING WITH HEATING ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS.
BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CONVECTION HAD DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS
NOT SUPPORTIVE OF RESTRICITONS...EXCEPT IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WELL SW
OF KAVL. LIGHT S TO SW WINDS WILL PERSIST....THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH HEATING ON TUESDAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING GUSTS. GREATER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WARRANTING A PROB30 AT
AT KAVL WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE BY WED AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SE
THROUGH THU...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DIURNAL TSTMS AND
MORNING VALLEY FOG RESTRICTIONS RETURNING FRI THROUGH SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...HG/JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...JAT






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