Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 280540
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
140 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and cool weather will continue through Wednesday. High pressure
moves off the East Coast on Thursday with warm and moist air moving
north from the Gulf through next weekend. This brings back the daily
chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms through
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
125 AM update: conditions remain quiet across the fcst area going
into the overnight. Under clear skies and good radiational cooling
conditions, a fairly robust sfc-based inversion has developed
over the past few hours and should persist well into the morning.
Some patchy morning fog is possible over the usual mtn valleys,
but most locations are too dry to support visby restrictions this
morning.

Otherwise, sfc high pressure centered over the western Ohio Valley
will continue to build southeastward tonight and settle over
the region. Uneventful weather will continue through Wednesday.
Low RH through a very deep layer will lead to mainly clear skies,
with just a few fair wx cumulus breaking out in the aftn. Southerly
flow and sunshine will help temps and humidity rebound slightly
vs. Tuesday`s values, though still pleasantly below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Tue: The incumbent sfc high will move offshore late
in the day Wednesday, with moist return flow continuing Wed night.

Thursday, a shortwave and increasing Gulf Coast moisture will move
in to the region. Weak isentropic upslope flow will bring a return
of diurnally-driven thunderstorms to the mountains and portions
of the Upper Savannah Valley on Thursday. While temperatures
will remain below seasonal normals, the increase in low level
moisture will bring humidity levels up with a return to more muggy
conditions. This Gulf moisture advection will continue to propagate
east and toward the Carolinas as the surface high pushes farther
off the coast. By Thursday night, should see lows pretty much near
seasonal normals with dewpoints continuing to rise.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tue: Warm moist advection will continue through
Saturday, allowing for mainly diurnal convection.  A weak front
will stall near the area this weekend, with another enhancement
to diurnal pops on Sunday.  The front may push south of the area
by Monday as an upper ridge builds into the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Expect near normal temperatures and a continued enhancement
in diurnal pops through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions expected thru taf period.
The latest IR imagery is showing some lingering patchy stratus in
the 6 to 8kft range over NE Georgia and the Upstate. The stratus
will likely persist well into the morning until we get some solar
heating and the near-sfc inversion erodes. Winds will remain
predominately NLY overnight with some sites going light and vrb.
They will gradually veer around to SELY by midday as high pressure
settles east of the region and become more SLY by the end of the
period as the high begins to move offshore. Some patchy cumulus
will likely pop up during the afternoon, but coverage will remain
limited.

Outlook: Moist, southerly return flow will develop around the
offshore ridge on Thursday. As a result, typical summertime
conditions will return by the end of the work week, with mainly
late afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA causing possible restrictions
through the weekend.

Confidence Table...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JPT/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JPT


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