Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 302323

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
723 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

An upper low near the Ohio River will begin to drift north
tonight and should be over northern Indiana Saturday afternoon.
Showers and a few storms are possible Saturday with lingering
showers possible into Sunday. Highs through the weekend will be in
the 60s with lows in the 50s. High pressure will bring slowly
improving conditions early next week.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Cold core upper low nr KEVV this afternoon will begin to lift ne
into sw OH by late tonight up twd KTOL by Sat evening. Primary nr
term focus resides invof of sfc occlusion through cntrl IN and north
across lower MI within mid lvl deformation zone and low level theta-
e ridge. Disorganized forcing in between suggests truncating prior
pops to no more than high chc going forward in line with 12Z mos
trends sans far south in proximity of sfc occlusion.

Otherwise northward pinwheel of mid lvl cyclone Sat along with more
focused mid level ascent should promote additional showers across
the ern half of the cwa.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Western flank of mid lvl deformation zone expected to wrap sewd into
the ern lakes Sun aftn as closed low accelerates newd through New
England. Will hold with low chc pop ern areas yet drop west as
fairly aggressive ll neg theta-e advection develops through the wrn

Beyond that pattern reversal aloft develops as mid lvl ridge builds
in behind departing upper trough over New England with commensurate
ramp of ll thermal ridge through the Oh Valley. This will yield a
vigorous warming trend through mid week if not longer as new sys
lifting out of the wrn US slows its eastward progress upstream of
hurricane Matt.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 721 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Upper low still expected to meander northward this period and be
near Toledo by this time Saturday evening. Aviation forecast
difficult given variable cigs and scattered showers. Have timed
shra activity first several hours per latest hires guidance and
radar trends. Cigs expected to drop into IFR category overnight
with moist low levels and light wind field. HRRR developing some
LIFR Vis conditions due to fog...primarily near KFWA. For now
trended toward about a mile with BR and will have to monitor
conditions overnight to see if dense fog can form with thick cloud
cover still in place.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.




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