Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 220623
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
223 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ASIDE FROM SOME CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
AFTER TONIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM FROM HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S MONDAY TO HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE ENDING OF SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT AND
AMOUNT OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROF WAS MOVING ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT IN ADDITION TO
THE UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT WERE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS.
KEPT A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NORTHEAST GIVEN THE INSTABILITY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT. THERE WERE A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN FOR LAKE
CLOUDS FORMING UNDER THE BASE OF A DEVELOPING INVERSION OVERNIGHT.
ADDED SOME LAKE CLOUDS TONIGHT GIVEN A FAVORABLE FETCH AND
INCREASING DELTA T VALUES. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY
WITH LOWS AWAY FROM ANY LINGERING AREAS OF LAKE CLOUDS WELL DOWN
INTO THE 40S. KEPT TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VERY LITTLE TO DISCUSS WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE...TRENDING
FROM BELOW NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL BY END OF PERIOD. IT SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND LIKELY DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
MODELS DO BEGIN TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA WITH WEAK
UPPER LOW UNDERCUTTING RIDGE. NO SUPPORT FOR ADDING POPS WITH LACK
OF ANY STRONG UPPER AIR SUPPORT OR SFC TRIGGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

EVOLUTION OF WRN BOUND OF MOIST LL CYCLONIC FLW NR TERM PROBLEMATIC
GIVEN LL THERMAL INVERSION IN PLACE AND AS YET STILL DEEP NRLY
TRAJECTORY NOTED IN PBL. THUS EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATOCU SHIELD ACRS MI
MAY CONT TO WRAP SWD AS SHOWN IN LATEST RAP MODEL GUIDANCE AS
OPPOSED TO MOST OTHER 00Z BASED GUIDANCE WHICH CARRIES IT EWD OF THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. HWVR TRIED TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY W/PRIOR
FCST BUT OF WHICH MIGHT BE TOO OPTIMISTIC. WILL MONITOR AND AMEND AS
NECESSARY.

OTRWS RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT BLDG THROUGH OH VALLEY AND BREAKDOWN OF
LL THERMAL TROUGH PREDICATES VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...T


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