Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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568
FXUS63 KIWX 011952
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
352 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF ROUTE 24. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MINIMAL SBCAPE OVER FAR SERN CWA APPROACHING 1000 J/KG THIS
EVENING TO AFFORD JUST SLIGHT CHC TSRA. OTHERWISE CWA LARGELY
REMAINS IN COLD SECTOR WITH MINIMAL MUCAPE, HOWEVER 40-60M/122 HR
HEIGHT RISES AND SUCCINCT I300K UPGLIDE INCREASING THIS EVENING
ALONG WITH 8 PLUS G/KG TAP TO AFFORD BURGEONING SHRA DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE BLENDED APPROACH APPEARS GOOD
THROUGH SHORT TERM PD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LONG DURATION ROCKIES RIDGING AND NERN THIRD CONUS TROFFING FROM MID
WEEK ON LEADING TO POTENTIALLY ACTIVE MIDWEEK RAFL. RATHER COOL
PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SLOW MODERATING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST PRECLUDES TSRA MENTION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE KSBN/KFWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
NORTH OF A SFC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL IN/OH. DIURNAL
MIXING...ESPECIALLY AT KFWA NEAR SFC FRONT...SHOULD AFFORD SOME
IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR FOR A TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
NEXT BATCH OF RAIN AND IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS MOVE IN THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AS MID MS VALLEY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
STRENGTHENS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. COULD SEE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
THIS EVENING...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY AT BEST PRECLUDES ADDING
TSRA/VCTS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. DRIER MID LVL AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD LATER TONIGHT-MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE TOWARD 15-18Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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