Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 231741
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
141 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

One more dry and pleasant day is in store before shower and
thunderstorms chances increase Wednesday into Thursday. Highs will
climb into the lower 80s today with lows tonight in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

High pressure was in control of much of the eastern US with the
western extent to keep its hold on the area through most, if not all
of the short term. Temperatures will moderate back to near normal
levels around 80. Initial surge of mid level moisture, currently
seen on water vapor moving through the central Plains, will arrive as
southerly flow initiates across the region. A few models attempt to
bring some light rain/rain showers into far western areas towards
12z Weds. While moistening of the column will commence with this
first surge...not sure there will be enough lift or saturation to
get any measurable precip to reach the sfc given dry airmass in
place across IA/IL/IN/MO. Will go dry through 9Z Weds with
continuation of slight chance of showers far West 9-12z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

More active pattern may be in store Weds into Thurs night as upper
level trough moving across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes
pushes a boundary into the region. NAM/GFS/ECMWF all print out
spurious pops through with best chances focusing on Weds ngt into
Thursday. PWATs increase during this time frame approaching 2 inches
with warm layer in excess of 12 kft all setting the stage for heavy
rainfall once again. Severe threat a bit more questionable, but
cannot be ignored as at least some instability and shear. SPC has
eastern half or so in Marginal severe risk mainly Weds ngt and all
of the area Thursday which seem reasonable at this point.

Trough will shift east and bring dry conditions back into the region
through at least Saturday before models begin to diverge on handling
of next trough and its eastward progress against strong upper level
ridging. By this point, tropics may be lighting up as well which may
further cause disruptions in the overall flow across the area. Would
prefer to have a dry forecast Sat ngt into Monday, but generally
forced to have at least slgt chc or low end chc pops mainly NW where
ridging may break down enough to allow for at least some convection.
Temperatures by Saturday into Monday will trend above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through most of the overnight period
with ridge of high pressure over the region and very dry low
levels. Chances for MVFR ceilings increase Wednesday morning
though, as shortwave lifts out of the Central Plains and theta-e
ridge builds into the area. Isentropic ascent and moisture
advection could also support SCT showers/storms Wednesday morning
but confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this point.
Best chances for both precip and MVFR conditions will be at KSBN
with slightly drier air and weaker forcing at KFWA.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fisher
SHORT TERM...Fisher
LONG TERM...Fisher
AVIATION...AGD


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