Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 240548
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1248 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1245 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

Areas of light rain, drizzle, and fog will persist into the early
morning hours, but coverage of the rain should gradually diminish.
Tuesday will feature mostly dry and cloudy conditions with highs
generally in the lower to middle 40s. Low pressure will move into
the region Wednesday bringing chances for rain showers and mild
temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s. A pattern more typical
for late January will set up for the second half of the week into
next weekend with several chances for lake enhanced snow showers.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

The combination of inverted low level trough and persistent mid
level deformation axis has allowed an area of rain to remain
anchored along and east of Interstate 69 this evening, with
precip more in the form of drizzle across north central
Indiana/southwest lower Michigan. Inverted trough and narrow
enhanced low level moisture axis will finally be shifting east
during the overnight hours which should cause steady decline in
rain coverage/intensity overnight which is covered well with
previous forecasts necessitating only minor tweaks to account for
current trends. Influx of slightly drier low level air west of the
inverted trough should limit any dense fog concerns tonight, with
any possibility of localized dense fog limited to far
east/northeast locations into early Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Light rain/drizzle will continue to impact ne IN/sc Lower MI/nw OH
into tonight given lingering moist boundary layer under mid level
deformation axis/inverted trough. These moist conditions will also
continue to support areas of fog, though expect just enough of a
gradient and weak dry advection into western portions of the
forecast area to preclude widespread dense fog formation.

Shortwave ridging overspreads in between systems on Tuesday.
Quiet/dry wx should result outside of low chances for some
lingering drizzle near exiting inverted trough in the morning. Some
guidance suggest a few breaks in cloud cover possible but would not
be surprised to see low clouds hang in through the day under
subsidence inversion. Temperatures will remain on the mild side
otherwise with lows in the 30s tonight and highs into the low-mid
40s on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 308 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

A more progressive/positively tilted upper trough will send
low pressure ene into central MI by Wednesday. Brief shot of theta-e
adv in system warm sector may generate rain showers later Tuesday
night into Wednesday locally, with a gradual changeover to snow
showers Wednesday night as deformation/trough axis pivots through and
colder air wraps in.

A colder (more typical for late January) and at times unsettled
northwest flow pattern will take shape for the remainder of the long
term. This perturbed/cyclonic flow regime over relatively warmer
Lake MI waters will allow for several opportunities for snow showers
through the period, especially in favored wnw flow snow belts where
some accumulation will be possible late in the week and weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1247 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

Anticipate gradual celling base rises through the forecast period
as steering flow gradually backs more northwesterly through the
forecast period. Still upstream moisture suggests maintaining
fueling/alternate criteria beyond mid/late afternoon.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Marsili
SYNOPSIS...Murphy
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Murphy

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