Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 010452

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1252 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

An upper low near the Ohio River will begin to drift north
tonight and should be over northern Indiana Saturday afternoon.
Showers and a few storms are possible Saturday with lingering
showers possible into Sunday. Highs through the weekend will be in
the 60s with lows in the 50s. High pressure will bring slowly
improving conditions early next week.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Cold core upper low nr KEVV this afternoon will begin to lift ne
into sw OH by late tonight up twd KTOL by Sat evening. Primary nr
term focus resides invof of sfc occlusion through cntrl IN and north
across lower MI within mid lvl deformation zone and low level theta-
e ridge. Disorganized forcing in between suggests truncating prior
pops to no more than high chc going forward in line with 12Z mos
trends sans far south in proximity of sfc occlusion.

Otherwise northward pinwheel of mid lvl cyclone Sat along with more
focused mid level ascent should promote additional showers across
the ern half of the cwa.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Western flank of mid lvl deformation zone expected to wrap sewd into
the ern lakes Sun aftn as closed low accelerates newd through New
England. Will hold with low chc pop ern areas yet drop west as
fairly aggressive ll neg theta-e advection develops through the wrn

Beyond that pattern reversal aloft develops as mid lvl ridge builds
in behind departing upper trough over New England with commensurate
ramp of ll thermal ridge through the Oh Valley. This will yield a
vigorous warming trend through mid week if not longer as new sys
lifting out of the wrn US slows its eastward progress upstream of
hurricane Matt.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1249 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Large vertically stacked low centered over sern IN will drift n-ne
into sern MI during the next 24hrs. Deeper moisture has wrapped
around this system with somewhat drier air near the center which
should move across nrn indiana this aftn/eve allowing flight
conditions to improve to vfr, but diurnal heating should also allow
for an increase in convection during this time frame. In the
meantime expect mvfr/ifr cigs with sct shra to cont. Some
potential for fog developing early this morning given light winds
and moist low levels, but cloud cover may prevent this.





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