Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 240456
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1256 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS. A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
NOTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WITH SATURDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MINOR CHANGES... RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS DRY AIRMASS
ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL OFF THIS EVE DESPITE CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS. LOWERED TONIGHT`S MINS A CATEGORY. BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO THE WEST APPEARS TO BE HEADED NORTH OF OUR CWA BUT A FEW
SHOWERS DVLPG OVER NE IL SO MAINTAINED OUR POPS OVERNIGHT BUT
PUSHED BACK TIMING A FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BUT IN A
WEAKENING STATE. ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY TO ALSO BE IN A
DECAYING STATE WITH LITTLE TO NO REFLECTION OF IT BY THE TIME IT
REACHES OUR LOCAL AREA. HIRES GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON DECAYING BAND
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS QPF BEING SHOWN AT
BEST AND CONFINED TO WESTERN AREAS. STAYED WITH A LOW CHANCE POP
WEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE CENTRAL WHILE KEEPING POPS OUT OF EASTERN
THIRD OF CWA.

UPSTREAM CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
AREA OVERNIGHT AND LATEST TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THESE MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND EVEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED SKY COVER UP...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH POSSIBILITY OF MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED ONCE AGAIN
UNDERNEATH REMAINING FRONTAL INVERSION.

TEMPS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE WARMER WITH LOWS REMAINING IN THE 40S
UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 60S MOST AREAS WITH MID
60S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAY SEE HIGHS REMAIN
IN THE 50S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LARGELY ZONAL 150+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SEND A DECENT SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. OUR CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT RIGHT EXIT REGION OF
THIS JET...LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THERMAL TROUGH DOESN`T FULLY INFILTRATE
THE CWA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT SO AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY AROUND
60F ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST SYNOPTIC FORCING BYPASSES US TO THE
NORTH AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED...DID INTRODUCE A SILENT 10 POP FOR
THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIOD TO COVER THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE ALONG THE FRONT.

TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LONGWAVE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH. THIS WILL ADVECT A VERY WARM AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 16C. MAY NOT MIX QUITE THAT HIGH
GIVEN LOW SUN ANGLE AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUT LOW 70S
SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY WITH OUR NEXT SHOT OF RAINFALL.
GOOD HEIGHT FALLS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. INSTABILITY FIELDS STILL TOO MEAGER FOR THUNDER INCLUSION
BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TEMPORARILY DEAMPLIFIES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WEAK ELEVATED TROUGH/MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS IL WILL SPREAD SLOWLY
EAST INTO NRN IN THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO HIGH
MVFR-LOW VFR AROUND DAYBREAK AT SBN AND LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON AT FWA BEFORE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING LIKELY SCATTERS THIS
STRATOCU DECK OUT BY LATER IN THE DAY. DRY OTHERWISE WITH LIGHT
SSW WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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