Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 221739

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
139 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

Dry weather is in store for today as high pressure tracks across
the Ohio Valley. High temperatures will range from the upper 60s
to lower 70s. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s. Chances
of rain will increase later tonight across southwest Lower
Michigan and northwest Indiana as a weak disturbance approaches
from the west. There are additional chances for precipitation
throughout this week, particularly Wednesday with a stronger
system moving across the area.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 445 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

Skies should clear temporarily as subsidence increases behind the
departing wave. Highs should be able to top 70 over most areas
given abundant sunshine. Clouds will start to increase by this
evening ahead of the next system with chances for showers
increasing over northwest areas overnight.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

Rain chances will be increasing toward the middle of the week as a
strong impulse drops into the long wave pattern over eastern North
America. Forecast challenges include location and development of
rain Wednesday and subsequent forecast high temperatures. Have not
been comfortable with the model blend high temperatures close to 70
degrees Wednesday over northwest Ohio; favor cooler highs given
the rain and an east wind north of the low. The best chances for
rain are from Wednesday into early Wednesday night as upper level
support increases. A few embedded storms are possible; however,
the storms are not expected to become severe. The upper level flow
should become more southwest by late in the week and allow
temperatures to rise well into the 70s and possibly into the 80s
this weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

VFR conditions are expected at both of the TAF Sites this afternoon
into Tuesday. A weak shortwave will attempt to break through the
high pressure ridge entrenched over the area after 00z in the far
west, but will likely not make it very far. Have VCSH in the
forecast for KSBN given the lower confidence of precipitation
hitting the airport tonight. Kept KFWA dry given the weak wave won`t
make it that far east. Ceilings within the upstream showers
associated with this wave are around 3-6K feet, so used that as a
starting point for KSBN this evening as the system draws nearer.
Otherwise, west/southwest winds will be gusty this afternoon,
probably in the 15-20 kt range for KFWA, and maybe as high as 20-25
kts for KSBN. Winds should die down after sunset.




SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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