Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 230012

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
812 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Issued at 121 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Quiet weather will dominate the remainder of the weekend. Expect
clear to partly cloudy skies through Monday. Lows tonight will be
in the 40`s. Highs Sunday will be in the mid-upper 60`s and low
70`s. On Monday, highs will fall back into the 50`s and low 60`s.


Issued at 801 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Minor changes on eve update. Temps have fallen off quickly in dry
airmass with wk gradient as ridge moves across the area this eve,
hwvr, band of alto cu associated with isent lift in waa zone will
move across ne portion of cwa this eve, limiting radiational
cooling and contd low level waa and gradual strengthening
gradient overnight should limit further temp falls late tonight.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Low level warm air advection already underway across the region
as closed low continue to move into New England and allow a weak
return flow to establish. This will allow for a warmer short term
period for all areas with greatest impacts SW as lows drop into
the 40s and highs move well into the 60s to possibly lower 70s in
SW areas.

Weak disturbance will move through the northern Lakes Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night, forcing a backdoor cold front south
into the area. Moisture and dynamics rather limited allowing for a
rather uneventful passage.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Fairly typical late October temperatures will be on tap for the area
as weak upper level ridging takes place before a stronger short wave
moves out of the plains and deepens as it moves through the Great
Lakes. Specific timing and strength details are still not overly
clear, but at least point towards the best chance for showers
arriving late Weds afternoon into Wednesday night. If somewhat
slower/deeper solution comes to fruition, thunder chances may need
to be introduced as modest instability could arrive prior to fropa.

Showers may persist into Thursday before brief zonal flow
establishes to bring dry conditions and slightly above normal
temperatures. A lower amplitude shortwave will move through the
central Plains over the weekend that could bring another chance
for showers. Keeping things rather low key with no real strong
influx of moisture for the system.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 707 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

A low level jet over the area should help to keep any lower
VISBYs at bay overnight. Only question would be shear
possibilities overnight and then possibly later Sunday with warm
air moving in. Am leaving out shear possibilities during the night
since it won`t be strong enough. Will include gusts for afternoon
Sunday at SBN/FWA with warm frontal passage. However, am not sold
on shear being strong or low enough in the atmosphere for
inclusion later Sunday.




LONG TERM...Fisher

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