Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 251057
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
657 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PROGRESS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL...
PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CENTRAL/EASTERN IA COMPLEX THIS AM TO LIKELY DIVE SOUTHEAST ALONG
LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT...KEEPING CHANCES TODAY RELEGATED WELL
SOUTHWEST OF CWA. DROPPED ANY MENTION TODAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RECOVERY TO REMAIN STAID.

FOCUS ON BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ARRIVAL
LATE TONIGHT. TEMPORARILY REXED INTENSE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
CENTERED THIS AM ACROSS SERN ALBERTA TO OVERTOP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND UNLEASH SEWD WHILST PHASING INTO SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF NORTHERN
QUEBEC LONGWAVE TROF THROUGH DYS2/3. WHILE INITIALLY SOUTHERN
LOBE/EXTENSION OF MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALLS MINOR AMID LAST
VESTIGES OF LEADING LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE...IT APPEARS THAT VIGOROUS
UPSTREAM KINEMATIC PROFILE AND AMPLE MUCAPE POOL OF 2000-3500 J/KG
THROUGH I94 TO I80 CORRIDOR OVER UPSTREAM/UPPER MIDWEST ON EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF ADVANCING EML SHOULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE TO CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX PRODUCTION BY LATE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL EXIT REGION OF JET SHOULD AIM TO MAINTAIN ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE PROGRESSION INTO CWA...ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK.
EXPLICIT MESOSCALE TEMPORAL/SPATIAL DETAILS WRT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
INITIATION STILL A BIT DUBIOUS...LENDING OVERALL CONDITIONALITY TO
COVERAGE/TIMING AND KEPT MENTION NO HIGHER THAN HIGH CHC ATTM WITH
NW TO SE GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO NEAR 20C BY LATE
TONIGHT PER GFS AND ECMWF. INITIAL MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD BE
MAINLY OVER FAVORED AREAS OF LOW LEVEL THETA E FLUX/CONVERGENCE...SO
HAVE REORIENTED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO COINCIDE WITH THIS AREA OF
CONVERGENCE WITH HIGHS RAIN CHANCES OVER EAST AREAS. HOWEVER...LATER
IN THE DAY...THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES
NEAR 4000 J/KG NEAR KLAF. SOME SREF MEMBERS HAVE VALUES AS HIGH AS
4500 TO 5000 J/KG. HAVE RAISED STORM CHANCES LATE IN THE DAY WITH
THIS GREAT INSTABILITY WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE
INCREASING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LARGER SCALE ASSENT
FAVORS THESE STRONG STORMS AND AS WIND SHEAR BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE.
BUFKIT/NAM AT LAF HAS SWEAT INDICES RISING TO AROUND 500. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVERHEAD SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY
DAYBREAK SAT. EXPECT INCREASED SSWRLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF RIDGE
LATER TODAY. SOME CONCERN FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION EDGING INTO NWRN
IN BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD/EARLY SAT AM. CONDITIONALITY OF
EVENT SUGGESTS ONLY PROB30/OUTLOOK MENTION AT KSBN AND HOLD DRY AT
KFWA FARTHER REMOVED FROM UPSTREAM ELEVATED INSTABILITY POOL.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


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