Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 191902

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
302 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Clouds will quickly increase across the area into this evening
with rain overspreading most areas by Thursday morning. The
heaviest amounts of rain are expected to fall mainly along and
east of Interstate 69 later tonight into Thursday morning. Cooler
air will flow into the area Thursday night with high temperatures
Friday afternoon only reaching the lower 50s. Cool and dry
conditions continue through the weekend.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Decent rain event beginning to unfold for at least the southeast
half (maybe more?) of the forecast area over the next 12 to 18
hours as low pressure develops and tracks along the frontal
boundary that moved through yesterday. Increasing mid level
forcing has allowed an extensive area of mid clouds to develop and
stream northeast into the region with pockets of showers and
thunderstorms affecting east central and southeast Illinois back
into SW Missouri. Initial surge of precip will likely stay across
mainly SE sections where decreasing condensation pressure deficits
will exist as much deeper moisture arrives. Further NW will take a
bit more time to saturate with NW extent of this still somewhat
questionable with models varying on what will likely end up as a
tight gradient for rain/no rain. Have trended pops upwards most
areas especially late evening into Thursday morning. For the time
being have left thunder out, but certainly possible in SE sections
where some elevated instability may allow for pockets of embedded

Rain will begin to exit NW areas slowly through the day with
likely to categorical pops warranted SE as low will be slow to
depart as upper level trough undergoes a negative tilt. Pops
continue far SE into Thursday evening with at least a chance of
some lake effect rain showers in the wake of the system late Thurs
night into Friday in NW sections. Overnight lows will drop into
the 50s with extensive cloud cover in place. Strong cold air
advection will arrive by Thursday with highs only climbing a few
degrees from overnight lows.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Drier and cooler air will reside across the region through much of
the period as high pressure slowly drifts through the area.
Near/slightly below normal temperatures will slowly moderate back
above normal by Sunday and into next week as heights slowly
increase. Next system may bring some rainfall towards the end of
the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

VFR conditions will remain for the rest of the afternoon. Clouds
will begin to increase as an upper level disturbance will move
northeast from Missouri and the associated precipitation will lead
to a decrease in ceilings. VFR for NW Indiana due to the heaviest
rain remaining south and east. In eastern portions of Indiana
heavier rain will lower ceilings to MVFR conditions with a IFR
conditions forecasted on Thursday morning.




LONG TERM...Fisher

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