Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 260546
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1246 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1126 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

SNOW AND WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THOUGH ROADS MAY
REMAIN SLICK AND HAZARDOUS THROUGH MORNING FROM RECENT SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS. SKIES WILL RANGE FROM MOSTLY CLEAR NORTH TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
INTO THE TEENS. MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME ALL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN WELL INTO THE 20S SINCE THE MORNING
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST. RAISED WIND
SPEEDS GIVEN HI RES MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENTS OBSERVATIONS.
SUSTAINED WINDS HAD INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT TO AROUND 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. STILL EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5
INCHES COMBINED WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH
OF FT WAYNE. LESSER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHERN
INDIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
DEFORMATION ZONE. BLOWING SNOW WAS REPORTED AT FT WAYNE ON THE
OFFICIAL AIRPORT OBSERVATION AT 3 PM. SNOWFALL WAS ALREADY NEARING 2
INCHES OVER CENTRAL MIAMI COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF THE DEFORMATION
ZONE. 6 HOUR WATER EQUIVALENT AT GRISSOM ENDING AT 1 PM WAS NEARLY A
QUARTER OF AN INCH...SO ALL CONSIDERED...RAISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
JUST A LITTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE 3 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED FROM PORTLAND TO LIMA. OTHERWISE...MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MORE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

SHRTWV OVER NRN ALBERTA THIS AFTN IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR OUT AS IT
DROPS SE ACROSS OUR AREA MON NGT BRINGING A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW TO WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUE-TUE NGT
PROVIDING FAIR WX WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S AND
HIGHS M20S-L30S... COLDEST EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHICH WILL BE
DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIR AND WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHC FOR
NIGHTTIME CLEARING.

NEXT SHRTWV TO MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY FROM THE WEST ON THU SHOULD
CAUSE A VARIETY OF PRECIP TYPES IN OUR AREA INCLUDING RAIN/SNOW AND
PSBLY A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. MODEST CAA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY FAIR WX AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN (JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
NW).

12Z GFS CONTS TO SHUNT BULK OF ARCTIC AIRMASS OFF TO OUR NE INTO NEW
ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND WHILE ECMWF HAS REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT MOVG
ARCTIC FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT SNOW INTO THE GRTLKS SATURDAY.
USED MODEL CONSENSUS TEMPS... JUST SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND... BUT GIVEN SUCH LARGE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL DIFFERENCES
(ABOUT 25C AT H85 BY SUNDAY EVE)... SGFNT ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

SKIES WERE CLEARING FROM THE NORTH WITH KSBN ALREADY CLEAR. VFR
CONDITIONS AT KFWA WITH CIGS AROUND 35HFT BUT OBSERVATIONS NEAR
EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD SUGGEST BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BEFORE
CLEARING BETWEEN 08-09Z. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN
AFTER 00Z/27 AT KSBN AS A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A DECENT DRY WEDGE WHICH MAY TAKE MOST OF EVENING TO
SATURATE. HELD OFF ON INTRODUCTION OF PCPN AT THIS TIME BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN FOR THIS EVENING WITH
LATER ISSUANCES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...LASHLEY


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