Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 212347
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
747 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

Clouds will continue to dissipate or move east out of the area
tonight as high pressure takes hold of the region into Tuesday.
Overnight lows the next couple of nights will be in the middle 40s
to around 50 with highs in the lower to middle 70s Sunday and 75
to 80 Monday and Tuesday. Locations near Lake Michigan will see
locally cooler conditions due to the flow off the lake.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 728 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

The last of the mid level clouds will exist eastern portions of
the forecast area setting up a quiet night with mostly clear
skies. Otherwise just some low coverage cumulus associated with
eastward advancing lake breeze boundary will also dissipate this
evening. Previous forecast is in good shape and only minor tweak
for the evening update was to lower mins just a shade based on
current sfc dew pt trends and good radiational cooling conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 234 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

Upper low over western Lake Erie will continue to fill and move
east. Skies will quickly clear out east of i-69 by sunset allowing
for a pleasant evening with lows in the upper 40s to around 50.
High pressure will take hold to the west and slowly work east
through Monday night with mostly sunny skies and seasonable
temperatures to prevail with highs in the 70s and lows in the
middle 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 234 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

Longwave trough will extend from Hudson Bay southwest to the four
corners region Tuesday. A series of waves and a frontal boundary
will set the stage for afternoon and evening thunderstorms to the
west of the area through at least Tuesday if not Tuesday night.
Frontal boundary and one of the main waves will draw close to the
area for Weds/Weds eve with convection potentially forming
upstream and working in with remnants of this possibly bringing
showers and storms to the area.

Very hard to go with any pops higher than chc at this juncture with
no major upper level push to force the front into the area or large
scale pattern change. ECMWF/GFS would suggest that we remain in this
perturbed pattern into next week with chances for showers and storms
just about anytime. Have to continue with persistence as did
surrounding offices. MEX guidance continues to head well into the
80s (mid 80s Friday) with grids slowly trending that direction.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 728 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

Quiet aviation weather this period with high based cumulus
diminishing this evening with the loss of steeper low level
lapse rates. Rapid decoupling will also support northwest winds of
10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 knots by 01Z or 02Z. Backdoor cold
front to track across northern Indiana on Sunday resulting in
light northwest winds to becoming northerly around 10 knots during
the mid to late morning hours.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Marsili
SYNOPSIS...Lewis/Fisher
SHORT TERM...Fisher
LONG TERM...Fisher
AVIATION...Marsili


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