Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 181127

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
627 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Issued at 625 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Cloudy skies and perhaps some lingering light drizzle will be
possible this morning. The clouds will remain into this afternoon
but some partial clearing is possible late in the day. It will
remain mild with highs today in the lower 40s and lows tonight in
the lower 30s. A bit warmer still on Thursday with highs 45 to 50.
Rain chances return Thursday night into Friday, though it will
remain unseasonably warm through the weekend with highs mainly in
the 50s and lows in the lower 40s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Deformation tied to a compact northern stream vort will exit sc
MI/far ne IN/nw OH by daybreak bringing an end to more organized
drizzle/light rain...though some patchy drizzle/fog could linger in
these areas through 13-14z. Dry otherwise today with weak cyclonic
west flow likely maintaining low clouds beneath inversion through
most of the day. Subsidence/dry air advection may afford a few
breaks in cloud cover later today. How quickly (if) this occurs will
determine how warm we get which remains of medium confidence.
Continued to side closer to slightly cooler guidance with
expectations for the cloudier solution to verify. Building heights
downstream of an upper low ejecting into the Central High Plains
will ensure more dry/fair wx otherwise into tonight.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

An unseasonably mild and at times wet pattern is expected during
the long term period as several pacific systems eject ene out of a
Western US trough. The overall dearth of any real cold air will
keep any precipitation liquid in odd/blocky pattern as significant
positive height anomalies emerge over Eastern Canada.

Models remain in good agreement in opening upper low over CO/NM
northeast through the region later Thursday into early Friday.
Overall deformation/fgen along associated frontal zone will be
undergoing a weakening trend as it lifts northeast, though still
expect a widespread rainfall (0.40-0.80") given highly anomalous
subtropical moisture plume into system.

Deeper southwest flow then becomes better established later
Friday into Saturday in response to Western/Central US trough
amplification. Mostly cloudy and mainly dry conditions are
expected with moist low levels and any subtle waves in this flow
possibly touching off a few showers. Saturday looks to be the
warmest day with temps potentially nearing record levels if there
are any substantial breaks in cloud cover.

The next low pressure center to emerge out of strong southern
stream jet looks to take a farther south track into the Lower Mid
MS/TN Valleys by later Sunday under impressive southeast Canada
block. The bulk of ensemble guidance then lifts the elongating
occlusion northeast early next week. Deformation/Trowal on nnw
fringe of system my bring periods of rain to the region Sunday
into early next week with confidence on timing/track at this range
very low.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Only minor changes with respect to 12 utc terminal forecasts for
northern Indiana. Slightly more pessimistic as ceilings have
lowered into LIFR range at KSBN and upstream into nern IL. The
lower ceilings blo 500 may also build into KFWA this morning per
prevailing cloud bearing wind. Slightly slower improvement through
the day with strong subsidence inversion and back edge of upstream
clouds to central IA.




SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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