Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 160012
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
812 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. NEAR RECORD
AND RECORD LOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S AND
POSSIBLY COLDER IN SOME AREAS. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

CU FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH EROSION OF
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WINDS ALSO TO DIMINISH AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES WHICH WILL SET UP IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING. FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES LIKELY TO
BE ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE LATE
TONIGHT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE FAR
NORTHWEST LATE. EVENING UPDATE SENT MAINLY TO REMOVE LATE
AFTERNOON/SCT FLURRIES MENTION. NO CHANGE MADE TO TEMPS WITH NEAR
RECORD OR RECORD COLD MINS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER/MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

...RECORD COLD EXPECTED TONIGHT...

QUIET WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD...BUT NOT BEFORE A RECORD
BREAKING NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS. FLURRIES/LGT SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN AS DIURNAL HEATING ENDS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
SKIES WILL CLEAR AND ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL BE GONE...THE GROUND
WILL BE FRESHLY "COOLED" RESULTING IN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
LATER TONIGHT. DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS...ADDING TO THE CONCERNS FOR RAPID COOLING. MET GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY THE COLDEST OF ALL GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN MANY SPOTS IN THE
LOW 20S WITH FAVORED DRAINAGE AREA DROPPING TO 20 OR LESS. AS A
RESULT...LOWS HAVE BEEN DROPPED SOMEWHAT (FEW DEGREES). ALTHOUGH
NORMALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR WE WOULD BE CONSIDERING FREEZE
WARNINGS...THE COLD WINTER AND EARLY SPRING HAS ALLOWED FOR A DELAY
IN THE GROWING SEASON. AS A RESULT...NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.
HOWEVER...A SPS WAS SENT TO ADDRESS CONCERNS FOR ANNUALS/PERENNIAL
FLOWERS AND PLANTS TONIGHT.

WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY BACK INTO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 50S WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND STRENGTHENING MID
APRIL SUN AIDING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR WEDS NIGHT AND THURS AS EASTERN CONUS
RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL BUT SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. S/SW WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL USHER IN WARMER AIR FOR THURS WITH AFTN
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO AROUND 60 DEG...NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. CHC FOR PRECIP RETURNS ON FRI AS SYS MOVES FROM NRN PLAINS
INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. FORCING IS RATHER WEAK WITH MEAGER
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF FRONT SO IMAGINE PRECIP WILL BE QUITE
SHOWERY. HAVE KEPT WITH CHC POPS AND QPF AROUND A TENTH. TEMPS WLL
HINGE ON CLOUD COVER AND ARRIVAL OF PRECIP BUT WILL GENERALLY BE
BACK BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S. RIDGING THEN BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR THE
START OF THE WEEKEND WITH PLEASANT WX ON TAP FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S BUT EXPECT DECENT AMT OF
SUNSHINE. NEXT WAVE ARRIVES LATER ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS
MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS SHIFTS...STILL SIGNIFICANT AMT OF DISAGREEMENT
BTWN 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS. UNTIL DIFFERENCES CAN BE RESOLVED HAVE KEPT
WITH TEMPS NEAR NORM AND ALLBLEND SLGT/LOW CHC POPS IN THE
SUNDAY/MON TIMEFRAME. SUSPECT MOST OF DAY SUNDAY MAY REMAIN DRY THO
ESP IF GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD. CLEAR
SKIES AIDED BY STABLE LAKE SHADOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD SUPPRESS DIURNAL CU
POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST. NEXT UPPER
TROUGH AND SFC REFLECTION TO TAKE SHAPE WEST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED. THE
STRONGER GUSTS IN THIS RANGE LIKELY TO BE EXPERIENCED AT KSBN IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...CEO
AVIATION...MARSILI


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