Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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082
FXUS63 KIWX 141941 CCA
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion...Correction
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
340 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact
northwest Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan this afternoon into
this evening. Locally heavy rainfall and perhaps a few stronger
thunderstorms with winds to 40 mph will be possible. Unseasonably
mild and dry elsewhere into this evening.

A strong cold front will swing through later tonight into Sunday
morning with gusty winds and chances for rain showers. Much cooler
and drier weather will follow behind this front later Sunday into
Monday, with highs on Monday only into the upper 50s to near 60
degrees. A very quiet and warmer pattern will then take hold on
the region for the remainder of next week into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Clusters of rain/storms will continue to impact mainly our far nw
IN/sw MI zones this afternoon into early this evening near a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary. Training/convection and high
moisture content for mid October (PWATS near 1.70 inches) will
support locally heavy rainfall, especially over Berrien/Cass
Counties MI where heavy rain has already fallen. Ramping 925 mb
flow into the 50-60 kt range this evening does bring into some
concern for wind gusts in excess of 40 mph with any convection,
though severe threat likely limited given elevated nature/lack of
any appreciable surface/mixed based CAPE.

The rest of the area will remain dry/unseasonably warm in warm
sector into this evening/early overnight, with our nw IN and MI
zones possibly experiencing a lull in shower/storm activity
during this time as sfc cyclone organizing across IA/WI attempts
to mix active frontal zone north for a time.

Deepening cyclone through the Northern Great Lakes in advance of
the main/vigorous shortwave trough will force a trailing cold
front through from W-E later tonight into Sunday morning. Showers
will accompany this frontal circ, though decaying a bit with
eastward progression.

Pressure rises and strong low level cold advection will allow winds
to really ramp up post-frontal later tonight into Sunday. Winds
could push near advisory/headline levels for a brief time on
Sunday. Cooling temperatures and perhaps even a few lake enhanced
sprinkles/light showers otherwise as lake-800 mb temp differences
push 20C by Sunday afternoon/evening. Clearing out Sunday night-
Monday with lighter winds and temperatures actually below normal for
a change within thermal trough.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Flow pattern becomes more zonal into mid-week, followed by a more
amplified Western US trough-Eastern US ridge configuration late week
into next weekend. The result will be an extended stretch of dry
conditions and positive temp anomalies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Forecast remains complicated at KSBN with frontal boundary parked
to the north and numerous waves of convection riding along
boundary. KSBN remains on southern periphery of scattered
convection. Latest radar mosaic shows most convection lifting
north of terminal but upstream tsra developing in IL may clip
airport next few hours. Kept VCTS for this reason with a tempo
group given timing of next batch of storms. Hires models are all
over the place with regards to convection moving into KSBN this
evening or remaining north. VCTS will have to cover this. Main
wave to eject front southeast overnight and another line of
convection expected closer to 09z at KSBN and around 12z at KFWA.
LLWS also possible ahead of fropa and strong gusty sfc winds near
and post frontal into Sunday.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ077-078.

OH...NONE.
LM...Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Lashley


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