Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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261
FXUS63 KIWX 211802
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
202 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Cool and dry conditions today will give way to a warming trend
through the weekend. Highs will be 50 to 55 today, 55 to 60
Saturday, and mid to upper 60s Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Sfc ridge over the nrn plains will expand ewd through the nrn lakes
this period. Robust low level cold advection in wake of yesterdays
cold front will peak toward late morning before dissipating. However
given wedge of stratocu trapped beneath sharp subsidence inversion
temps will struggle with limited diurnals this aftn.

Otherwise continued dry entrainment overnight will lead to clearing
and seasonably cold temps though sfc gradient flow expected to
sufficiently strong enough to ward off any chc of frost.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Intense sw over wrn CO this morning will wrapup ewd tda and close
off across KS before making slow ewd progression through the TN
valley this weekend. Weakening sfc ridge extending to its north
through the lakes will weaken with time allowing for moderating
temps.

Thereafter energetic pac wave train heads in across the pacnw. Any
influence from lead sw disturbance still expected to bypass the area
well nw. However trailing frontal zone likely to stall through the
wrn OH valley. Med range guidance concensus lacking on placement and
has bounced around considerably the last few days. Will
tentatively embrace latest blended solutions indicating a return
of precip chcs late Tue tied to secondary disturbance ejecting out
across this frontal zone.

Otherwise much more vigorous tertiary disturbance progged through
the central Rockies late period. Broad/deep return flow indicated
ewd of this deepening sys look promising for rainfall toward either
late Wed or Thu pending model choice within warm frontal zone.

Regardless strong signals continue to point to significant warmup
mid period through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 158 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Several layers of clouds across both TAF sites making for a
somewhat complex set of TAFs with lingering stratocu in the SBN
area and previously clearing skies at KFWA filling in with CU as
cold temps aloft causing diurnal development. Some of the Hi res
models bring extensive stratocu across Michigan back into the area
through at least this evening if not much of the night before
increased subsidence breaks up any lower clouds on Saturday. Given
current trends have leaned towards a slower departure to low
clouds at SBN but kept VFR at FWA through the period and monitor
trends.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...Fisher


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