Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 040859
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
359 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST THE FEB 3 2016

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL END BY DAYBREAK AS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES PERSIST OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHERN INDIANA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LESS THAN ONE INCH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BY LATE MORNING WITH
DECREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK AS BOUNDARY LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL ALLOWING MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DENDRITIC GROWTH WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLIPPERY ROADS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT AS THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW WAS
CAUSING SOME SLIPPERY SURFACES. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OBSERVED
AT THE NORTHERN INDIANA OFFICE AT 230 AM...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW.

LATER TODAY...WINDS WILL BACK AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES CAUSING THE
REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO END. NEW SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVER MOST AREAS
TODAY AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE
AREA TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

INITIALLY WEAK PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH HIGH BELTED CLIPPER
INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT FOR SMALL CHC LIGHT SNOW NORTHERN CWA.
WARM SFC/BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AND DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER TO ALL BUT
NEGATE ACCUM POTENTIAL...SAVE FOR LOW T/0.1 INCH POTENTIAL PRIOR TO
NOON. GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPS THROUGH WEEKEND WITH INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG NORTHERN PERIPHERY MIDATL/GOMEX
RIDGE. HOWEVER TRANSITION TO SIG COLDER TEMPS DYS5-8 AS PRESENT
STRONG EPAC SYSTEM OBLITERATES DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AND PHASES WITH
POLAR VORTEX BY TUE. SIG STRONGER/LOWER TRACKED CLIPPER FOR MIX RASN
SUN NIGHT/ERLY MON TIMEFRAME. THERMAL COLLAPSE TO ENSURE TRANSITION
TO ALL SNOW LATER MON. MID TEENS/LK 8H DIFFERENTIALS TUE POSSIBLY TO
UPPER TEENS TUE NIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE HELD WELL UPSTREAM TO
ENSURE LAKE RESPONSE AND NUDGE HIGHER OVER BLEND TUE/TUE NIGHT
BEFORE BACKING FLOW/LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS AID IN DWINDLED LES
INTO DY7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

INTERMITTENT FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD END OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY
LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL ALLOWING MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE
INCREASES.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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