Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 221724
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
124 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY DUE TO BEING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S. THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SHRTWV OVER NRN MN EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE INTO
SRN ONTARIO TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVG TO WRN MI/NW IL BY
THIS EVE. PLUME OF >20C H85 TEMPS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO OUR CWA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEEP
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
IA/NRN IL/SRN WI AND SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE CU DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
AREA ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE NEARLY FULL INSOLATION
COMBINED WITH INCREASED SWLY GRADIENT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY DEEP MIXING IN OUR AREA TODAY RESULTING IN
HIGHS AT OR A BIT ABOVE MOS TEMPS... IN THE L90S.

UPR TROF WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GRTLKS TONIGHT AS ROCKIES RIDGE
AMPLIFIES. DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED
WITH GRADUAL COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING UPR LEVEL
TROF MAY ALLOW TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. ON THE
OTHER HAND... THE LLJ WILL SHIFT WELL TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT SO A
MECHANISM TO MAINTAIN INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. THUS...
HIGHEST POPS MAINTAINED OVER NWRN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
LINGERING MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE AS FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST 30-40KT 0-6KM SHEAR IN THIS AREA
WHICH WOULD AID STORM/UPDRAFT LONGEVITY/STRENGTH SHOULD DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOP... SO SVR STORM PSBL. CAA FOLLOWING THE FRONT
SHOULD DROP TEMPS INTO THE M60S NW BY DAYBREAK WHILE SE LIKELY
ONLY FALLS TO THE L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. FAVOR THE
HIGH RES/CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS WHICH APPEAR TO REASONABLY
HANDLE THE COLD START CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...GIVEN A SUBSTANTIAL
LOW LEVEL INVERSION STILL PRESENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BELIEVE IT WILL BE HARD FOR STORMS TO FORM. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700/500 WILL BE NEAR 8C/KM...BUT THIS AREA
WHICH INCLUDES ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE HARD TO TAP GIVEN VERY STABLE
CONDITIONS BELOW THIS LAYER. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED STORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED.
COOL CONDITIONS RETURN AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWERED TEMPS CONSIDERABLY
INCLUDING CUTTING TEMPS 5 DEGREES OVER MOST AREAS...AND AROUND 10
DEGREES OVER NORTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD AIR
INTRUSION WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...AND GIVEN THE CANADIAN EPS GRAMS
WITH THE MEAN ENSEMBLE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AT FORT WAYNE AROUND 54
DEGREES...FEEL THE GFS/MEX VALUES ARE IN THE PARK. OTHERWISE...THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. MADE FEW CHANGES
TO THIS PERIOD AS THE ONGOING TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS APPEARS ON
TRACK IN LIGHT OF THE LATEST GFS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014


DAYTIME MIXING HAS WINDS STARTING TO GUST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BETTER GRADIENT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CARRY A G22 AT
KSBN THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT MENTION AT KFWA. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THIS EVENING AND MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SH/TSRA INTO THE AREA...BETTER INSTABILITY TO ACCOMPANY FRONT IN NW
CWA SO WILL HAVE A TEMPO AT KSBN BUT LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR NOW. AMPLE LOW LEVEL  MOISTURE BEHIND FRONT COULD MAKE
FOR MVFR CIGS EARLY MORNING ON WEDNESDAY...STRONG GRADIENT AS WELL
WITH NW WINDS AROUND 15KTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JAL


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