Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 232354

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
754 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Issued at 755 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible Wednesday through
Thursday as weak impulses track across the area in a moisture rich
environment. Highs will be near normal to a little above normal
the next several days with temperatures reaching the upper 70s to
mid 80s each day.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Return flow associated with a high pressure area will allow a surge
of moisture to spread northeast into the area overnight. Given this
surge, there is a chance for storms late tonight over western areas
including northwest Indiana given favorable low level convergence
along this zone. Storms are possible throughout the day Wednesday as
weak impulses track northeast across the area in an unstable
environment. Concern for renewed flooding over areas from South Bend
toward Knox that are still drying out from the extremely heavy
rainfall about one week ago. In addition to the heavy rain, an
isolated storm may become severe if conditions are able to
destabilize enough during the afternoon. GFS BUFKIT CAPEs top
2000 J/Kg at South Bend, so with greater then 30 m/s low level
shear, conditions will need to be monitored for both flooding and
severe storm potential.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

The chances for locally heavy rain will continue Wednesday night
into Thursday as a very moist airmass remains over the area. As with
Wednesday, concern continues for renewed flooding over areas near
and southwest of South Bend. Have updated the forecast event total
rainfall through Thursday to favor the heaviest rain west of highway
31. The higher forecast amounts exceed 1.25 inches over these west
areas. However, if storms train in this environment, locally much
heavier rainfall is possible. Have not issued a flood or flash flood
watch,but subsequent shifts will need to monitor.  Otherwise,
conditions should be mainly dry into the weekend, with more storms
possible by early next week. Highs should be near to a little above
normal during this period given the proximity of the upper level


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 742 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

VFR conditions overnight with potential for lower ceilings along
with a decaying convective complex possible at least into nwrn
Indiana/KSBN area Wednesday morning. Some potential for
redevelopment later in the day but with uncertainty of sub
synoptic scale intricacies have only mentioned VCSH at KFWA and
hold off on VCTS/TSRA mention until confidence builds.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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