Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 230741
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
341 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2016

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER. EARLY
MORNING LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S...EXCEPT THE UPPER 30S NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN. UNDER SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS TODAY WILL REBOUND INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE FROM FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST OHIO.
SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2016

A MARINE LAYER HAD MOVED ONSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A FRONT...WITH
VERY CHILLY AIR SPREADING INLAND WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN. COOLER AIR
WAS ALSO SPREADING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST
OHIO. HAVE ADJUSTED EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGARD. LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE TODAY...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FROST FROM FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2016


PARADE OF SHORT WAVES AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO IMPACT THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO TEN DAYS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT EAST OF
REGION SUNDAY WHILE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD HELP TEMPS RECOVER NICELY SUNDAY WITH LOW 70S
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST AND AROUND 80 IN FAR SOUTHWEST. 925MB TEMPS
EVEN SUPPORT A FEW DEGREES HIGHER BUT CONCERN FOR SOME HIGH
CIRRUS...ESPECIALLY NORTH...AS WELL AS A RATHER COOL START TO
DAY.

MODELS NOW KEEPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH UNTIL MONDAY AS IT
SAGS SOUTH WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE DAMPENS. DECENT LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SOME GULF INFLUENCE
PROVIDING MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO BOUNDARY. THIS SUPPORTS
SUPERBLEND LIKELY POPS. ANOTHER WARM DAY LIKELY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
WITH WARM SECTOR OVER THE AREA. HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 70S NORTH
NEAR FRONT AND PCPN TO UPPER 70S SOUTH.

LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE LAKES REGION TUESDAY BUT ANOTHER WAVE COMES OUT OF THE PLAINS BY
MID WEEK. SIMILAR SETUP WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION ON
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WITH GULF TAP ONCE AGAIN. POPS INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM. TIMING DIFFERENCES ON
EVOLUTION AND DEPARTURE OF SYSTEM BUT DECREASING POPS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. OPTED TO KEEP FRIDAY DRY AS NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZES IN
THE WEST AND WILL LIKELY APPROACH BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2016

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE TODAY...ALLOWING SKIES TO
CLEAR WITH DRY CONDITIONS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WERE LINGERING OVER
NORTHERN INDIANA NEAR THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR QUICKLY AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AND AS
DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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