Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 171739

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
139 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Mild temperatures will continue into Tuesday. Clear skies
expected tonight with Tuesday morning lows remaining mild in the
60s. Very low chance of an isolated shower Tuesday afternoon but
most places should remain dry with temperatures warming back up
into the upper 70s along the Michigan and Indiana border and 80s
farther south and in northwest Ohio.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 432 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Patchy fog last night has mixed out and dissipated over all but the
northeast corner of the forecast area where at Hillsdale the
visibility was 1/2 mile at 315 AM. A low level jet will translate
east and cause low level wind speeds to increase to around 70 knots
in the 900/850 mb layer. These strong low level winds will mix
out the remaining fog early this morning. There is an outside chance
for a shower today as moisture flux remains impressive; however, the
best forcing with stay north and northeast of the area. Kept the
forecast dry for today. Expect gusty winds today with wind gusts
topping 30 mph. Highs will probably settle just a few degrees shy
of the records of 86 and 85 at South Bend and Ft Wayne
respectively. Lows tonight in the warm sector will be unseasonably
mild for this time of year in the upper 60s.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 432 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Unseasonably mild weather will start the day Tuesday with early
morning temperatures well above the normal lows for this time of
year. A cold front will be moving southeast and should move across
the area during the day as an upper level trof moves. Added a small
chance for showers over the southeast half of the area where limited
daytime instability may support some showers.  A second upper level
trof will approach the area and cause the front to begin to move
back north as a wave develops along the front Wednesday. The GFS has
trended north and now supports the northern track of the ECMWF.
Expanded the area where rain is likely to include areas from Ft
Wayne early Thursday. Otherwise, conditions should be mainly dry
Friday through Sunday with temperatures cooling closer to normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 116 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

VFR conditions will persist through the overnight as scattered
diurnal clouds this afternoon will lift as surface heating
stops. SFC winds look to remain strong with a few gusts to 30 kts
possible. Frontal passage will occur late morning from the NW
will lead to lowering ceilings. Models are mixed about precip
occurring with the frontal passage so did not include.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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