Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 100715
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
315 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP PLEASANT WEATHER OVER THE
REGION INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

BENIGN WX THIS PD AS SFC ANTICYCLONE SPRAWLS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES.
OTRWS WILL NOTCH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE MOS SPLIT GIVEN INSOLATION XPCD
TDA AND BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS YDA AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

A WESTERN CANADA UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST INTO MANITOBA
FRIDAY AND ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND. INCREASINGLY PERTURBED
WNW FLOW ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SYSTEM INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/LAKES...AND RAMP UP OF LLJ ACROSS THE CENTRAL US IN ADVANCE
OF LEE SIDE SFC TROUGHING...WILL ALLOW A PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E
AIR TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY BE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN INVOF
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY/MOISTURE AXIS. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES ARE FCST TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND WORK EAST THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES/OH VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...WITH CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING/MESOSCALE DETAILS/UPSCALE GROWTH/ETC HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
FCST RANGE. ANY SUCH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY BE IN A DECAYING
PHASE FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY AM AS IT OUTRUNS STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW
INTO AN INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. STRONGER CVA/FLOW
SIGNAL IN MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY WITH
INITIAL ROUND OF WEAK HEIGHT FALLS. SVR POTENTIAL AND HIGH TEMPS
WILL HINGE ON TIMING AND DEBRIS CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH TREND TOWARD
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS A GIVEN THIS WEEKEND.

UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES STILL BEING CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISED
IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES INTO THE REGION. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE A TRANSITIONAL/WARM
DAY IN BETWEEN FRONTS. CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG PRIMARY/STRONGLY
FORCED COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT PER LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE QUALITY NOT LOOKING ALL THAT GREAT BY
THIS TIME WITH MOISTURE AXIS LIKELY SHUNTED SSE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD AS SFC ANTICYCLONE BLDS FURTHER ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


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