Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
078
FXUS63 KIWX 061003
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
603 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER
TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE WEATHER WILL
BE UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS MOST DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM 65 TO
75.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW OVER THE CONUS FEATURING CLOSED LOWS ON BOTH COASTS
WILL HAVE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER OUR AREA AND PROVIDE FOR A
VERY PLEASANT SPRING DAY TODAY. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FOLDING OVER
INTO NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN MODEST 60M HEIGHT
RISES OVER OUR AREA YIELDING SEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME HIGHS OF
70-75F. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND BACK WINDS
AROUND TO THE SW RESULTING IN MODEST WAA FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS OTTAWA...DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF OVER JAMES BAY ON
SATURDAY. VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL BLOCK ANY DEEP MOISTURE RETURN AND MODELS NOW QUICKER WITH
ARRIVAL IN OUR AREA RESULTING IN LESS FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING TO
TAP INTO LIMITED INSTABILITY...ALL OF WHICH FAVOR KEEPING POPS
LIMITED TO CHANCE RANGE WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECT 10+F RANGE IN
TEMPS FROM NW TO SE ON SATURDAY. PRECIP ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT AS
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE HIGH
BEHIND IT WILL PROVIDE FOR BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON SUNDAY BEFORE FRONT
RETURNS NORTH LEADING TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

UNSETTLED PATTERN TO DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD. CLOSED UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY POSITIONED JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
INLAND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. SUBSEQUENT LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
INITIATE NORTHWARD RETURN OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A WARM
FRONT...BRINING PRECIP CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN NEXT
WEEK. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...MODELS STRUGGLING WITH EVOLUTION OF
UPPER LOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WITH
POTENTIAL REX BLOCK RESULTING. LATEST TRENDS FROM MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAS UPPER LOW LIFTING UP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE IT
WILL STALL AND FILL BY MID WEEK. INITIAL SURGE PRIOR TO THAT WILL
HAVE SOME CONSENSUS IN BEST PRECIP CHANCES TO OCCUR IN THE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY EXCITED
ABOUT LIKELY POPS CURRENTLY OFFERED IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN...ESPECIALLY OUT IN DAY 5. TYPICAL OF A BLENDED
SOLN...CHANCE POPS LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WHEREAS WE WILL MORE THAN LIKELY SEE SMALL BREAKS OF DRY WX
ONCE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. SEASONABLE TEMPS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL TO TREND AS MUCH AS 10F
ABOVE NORMAL MID WEEK IF PROLONGED PERIOD IN WARM SECTOR IS
REALIZED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.