Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 051812
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
212 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS FROM A
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA MAY MAKE IT HAZY
AS WELL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TODAY...AND RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOG LIMITING VSBYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... HWVR
BASED ON OBS AND WEBCAMS... VSBY RESTRICTIONS DON`T APPEAR TO BE
SGFNT AND WITH MOISTURE QUITE SHALLOW DOUBT IT WILL GET MUCH WORSE
SO PLAN NOT TO MENTION FOG IN TODAYS FCST.

LOW OVER KY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NE INTO THE UPR
OH VALLEY TODAY/TNGT. CIRRUS SHIELD NW OF THE LOW WAS SPREADING
INTO SERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND SHOULD LIMIT SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. OTRWS... HEIGHTS WILL
CONT TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
RIDGE ALOFT FROM WI-MO MOVG EAST AHEAD OF RATHER STRONG TROF MOVG
ESE INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF FAIR WX ACROSS OUR AREA WITH A
CONTD SLOW WARMING TREND. DECENT INSOLATION EVEN IN THE EAST
THROUGH CIRRUS FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING UP TO H85 ONCE AGAIN TODAY RESULTING IN
AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YDAY... IN THE L-M80S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG AS PAST FEW NIGHTS... BUT LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE
L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY STILL
APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED IN BETWEEN A CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY LIFTING NE INTO THE
EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE UPPER
MIDWEST. DAMPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO STILL ON TARGET TO FORCE THIS SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDER
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE POTENTIALLY LIMITED GIVEN
NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. NOT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE RISK ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN
PROGGED DEEP/MOIST CLOUD LAYER (850 MB DEWPOINTS NEARING 15C).
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLER/DRIER WX AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY IN FLATTER/QUASI ZONAL FLOW
REGIME. SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY AIDED/SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMBEDDED IN THIS WEAK FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW AS LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG.
GRADIENT IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT SOME WEAK
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO NOTED. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME MVFR BR AND CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO
NIGHTS SUPPORT THAT ARGUMENT. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG BUT SOME VIS
RESTRICTION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND HAVE INTRODUCED JUST A HIGH
END MVFR MENTION FOR NOW.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


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