Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 050601
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
201 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VERY WARM THROUGH LABOR DAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. IT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH
HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE
DEGREES. LOWS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ONGOING CONVECTION WAS SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER
THE AREA. DAYTIME HEATING HAD CAUSED CAPE VALUES TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG. OVERALL BULK SHEAR WAS WEAK...WITH
WITH LARGE CAPES/INSTABILITY...EXPECT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WHERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO BETTER ORGANIZE.
OTHERWISE...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES FROM THE COOLING FROM THE STORMS. THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SATURDAY...BUT THERE STILL SHOULD BE
ENOUGH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LABOR DAY WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THESE HEAT INDICES IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FOR THE REST
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE NEXT WEEK IN
REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND THE ARRIVAL OF COOL
AIR. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...KEPT THE GENERAL ONGOING TIMING
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. FRIDAY
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF A
SECOND SURGE OF COOL AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FORM IN A LINE FROM KBEH-KMIE WITH TS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS MOVING OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN ARE NOT IN FAVORABLE LOCATION TO MAINTAIN ANY
VERTICAL GROWTH AND EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH 12Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RAINFALL
EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY FOG FORM BEFORE DAWN. FOG WILL DISSIPATE
RATHER QUICKLY. TIMING OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS / TS IS STILL
DIFFICULT. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT CONVECTION. WILL RE-EVALUATE FOR 12Z
ISSUANCE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LEWIS


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