Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 250940
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
540 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY AND FORECAST TO REACH THE
60S...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 40S TONIGHT. UNSEASONABLY
MILD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ISOLATED SPRINKLES IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 9-7H LAYER THETA-E
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SHIFT ESE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A SFC COLD FRONT. THIS WEAKENING
FRONT...TIED TO A ROUND OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND 150 KT PLUS
UPPER JET TRACKING ESE THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL SWING SE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. NOTHING MORE THAN LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED
WITH THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE AS POOLED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
TRAPPED BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. A QUICK
IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING FROM NW TO SE CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTN AS
DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR OVERSPREADS...WITH NO CHANGES MADE TO MILD AFTN
HIGHS.

WX NIL TONIGHT AS A SFC RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE MS RIVER
VALLEY ON THE SUBSIDENT SW PERIPHERY OF A CARVED OUT SE CANADA
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE RATHER UNIFORM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA (UPPER 30S-LOW 40S) WITH COLDER PUSH OF AIR
FOCUSED INTO NORTHEASTERN ZONES (IF GRADIENT SLACKENS ENOUGH COULD
SEE SOME SPOTTY MID 30S)...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR FULL DECOUPLING
UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

POTENT SW OFF THE CA COAST WILL SWING INLAND TDA AND OVERTOP WRN
RIDGE AS IT AMPLIFIES EWD ACRS THE NRN LAKES BY TUE. TRAILING WX
INDUCING CDFNTL BNDRY WILL RACE EWD WITHIN CONTD PROGRESSIVE FLW
PATTN ALOFT. GIVEN MULTIDAY TRENDS OF A FASTER EWD PROGRESSING SYS
AND GOOD 00Z BASED MED RANGE AGREEMENT MADE SUBSTANTIAL TIMING
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MON-TUE. HWVR OF NOTE W/FASTER EWD PROGRESSION
IS A GENERALLY MORE SUBDUED/DELAYED INFUSION OF WRN GOMEX BASED MSTR
RTN WHICH SHLD LIMIT QPFS TO AOB ONE HALF INCH FOR EVENT TOTALS.

OTRWS SERIES OF SFC RIDGES TO BLD SEWD OUT OF CANADA IN WAKE OF THIS
SYS PARTICULARLY LT PD IN CONCERT W/SECONDARY NRN STREAM SW DIGGING
SEWD SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED EC/GFS SOLUTIONS
WORRYING BUT AS YET WIDELY DISPARATE. REGARDLESS PRONOUNCED BLOW OF
CAA LIKELY WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

DECENT SHORTWAVE DIVING ESE THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES WILL FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH KSBN SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK AND KFWA BY MID-LATE MORNING. COOLING/SATURATION
IMMEDIATELY ALONG/BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY AT KSBN WHERE
BETTER PROBABILITY EXISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF FUEL ALT TO IFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...PATCHY BR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE DRIER AIR SCOURS OUT ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS/BR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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