Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 310827

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
427 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

Issued at 425 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Showers and a few thunderstorms are again possible today as a cold
front drops southward through the region. Cooler and noticeably less
humid air will filter in for Thursday and persist through the


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 420 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Strong shortwave energy over MN/ND to sharpen progressive northern
stream primary trof axis as it shifts into eastern Canada/New
England by Friday. Concern for some additional, primarily shallow
convection again today as aforementioned digging wave to elicit an
eastward track of more subtle/smaller mesoscale vorticy from IA into
CWA around midday and prior to more vigorous southward scour of low
level moisture. Amid anemic mid level lapse rates anticipate muted
sbcapes on order of 1000-1500 j/kg highest in far southeastern CWA
where deeper rich residual moisture resides. Increasing upper level
jet streak as pattern amplifies also favors southeastern CWA with
upper level divergent/coupled jet streaks near peak heating. Given
stronger instability and low level convergence overlap resides well
south of area will hold pops to low end chance with lesser
thunderstorm mention given anticipated shallow convection layer.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 420 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Continued tranquil period in store as tropical system in Gulf
evolves into east coast extratropical storm. Large scale subsidence
amid the evolution into a persistent Gulf of Mexico ridge that
extends northward into southern Great Lakes to likely afford
prolonged dry spell well into next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Difficult/low confidence forecast through this morning given
BR/stratus concerns in light wind/ample moisture setup. A period
of IFR appears more likely at KFWA given yesterday`s heavy
rainfall/higher x-over values...though mid level cloud deck will
likely preclude a more widespread dense fog event. The main change
to the 06z TAFs was to trend more aggressive with restrictions at
mainly KFWA 10-14z per latest MOS trends.

Mainly VFR by this afternoon/tonight as winds turn northerly
post-frontal and drier air overspreads. Otherwise, could see an
isolated storm in the vicinity of KFWA this afternoon near
elevated portion of front.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through
     Thursday evening for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through
     Thursday evening for MIZ077.

LM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     Thursday for LMZ043-046.



LONG TERM...Murphy

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