000
FXUS63 KLOT 180633
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
133 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
309 PM CDT

A RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP THROUGH SUNDAY BEING
TONIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
TEMPERATURES...AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS THE AREA...DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A SHEARED OUT SHORT
WAVE...CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPARK OFF AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THIS SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND INDUCES SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERALL...I FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST...WHICH
PLACES THE CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY MAINLY FROM MID EVENING THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CHICAGO TO
MENDOTA.

A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT CHILLY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN
INDIANA...WHERE A ENHANCED LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S FORE AREAS NEAR THE LAKE. FARTHER
INLAND...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 50S...WITH EVEN
SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AREA-WIDE ON SATURDAY AS THE LOWER
LEVEL FLOW TURNS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO
KEEP THINGS COOLER. SUNDAY DEFINITELY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF
THE WEEKEND. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT AN
EVEN WARMER AIR MASS IN ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN ADVECTING IN 15 (9) DEGREE CELSIUS 925 MB (850 MB)
TEMPERATURES. LOCAL CLIMO FOR THESE VALUES THIS TIME OF YEAR
INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 70S
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA. FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL MONDAY...LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER DAY OR TWO PERIOD OF NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE COOLING
FLOW...WHICH WILL AGAIN COULD SET UP A DECENT THERMAL GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LAKE SHORE AND AREAS FARTHER INLAND.

WAY OUT...TOWARDS THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A GOOD STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
PLAINS..THEY JUST DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TIMING. THIS  SYSTEM
LOOKS TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MUCH WARMER WEATHER AND ALSO ANOTHER
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

KJB

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-13KT BY AROUND 16Z.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE SOME PATCHY 4000 FT CLOUDS ARE SEEN
IN THE WAKE OF THIS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THIS FRONT.
SPEEDS AT TAF SITES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT THROUGH MOST OF THE
MORNING HOURS...BEFORE AN INCREASE TO 10-13KT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TO MID EVE AS THE THERMALLY-INDUCED PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AROUND THE LAKE PERIPHERY. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUD ARE
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY INTO THIS EVE...BUT OTHERWISE NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED.

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

SATURDAY...VFR/WX NIL.

SUNDAY...VFR/WX NIL.

MONDAY...CHANCE RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY. IFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...VFR/WX NIL.

WEDNESDAY...CHANCE RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY. IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE.

MTF/KREIN

&&

.MARINE...
133 AM CDT

A GENERALLY QUIET PATTERN OVER THE LAKE IN TERMS OF HEADLINES IS
EXPECTED INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER
THE LAKE TODAY ALLOWING FOR A 10-20 KT PUSH OF ONSHORE WINDS
ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC THIS
WEEKEND AND STEER A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE
ON SUNDAY. WITH THE PARENT LOW WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOVING
AWAY...THIS FRONT WILL STALL THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY COULD YIELD 20 KT GUSTS OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN NEARSHORE AREAS. EVENTUALLY THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE LAKE AS A LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP THE BOUNDARY BRINGS IT
ACROSS THE LAKE. THIS FRONT WILL TURN WINDS NORTHERLY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SOME LONG RANGE GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING A
POTENTIAL GUSTY SOUTHERLY PERIOD OF WINDS LATE IN THE FORECAST
/THURSDAY/.

MTF

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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