Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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FXUS63 KLOT 230610

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
110 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

138 PM CDT

Through Monday Night...

Sunshine and warmth will be the main story in the near term as high
pressure is sprawled across the Great Lakes and portions of the mid
to upper Mississippi Valley. The ridge axis is centered just to
our north this afternoon allowing a light northeast breeze to keep
the lake front cooler while temperatures inland warm into the low
80s. The ridge axis will slide to our southeast overnight
allowing southerly flow to overspread the forecast area tomorrow.
Temperatures tomorrow are expected to be similar to today...except
the warmth should spread across much of the Chicago metro with
south flow. Parts of Lake County and northern Cook County will be
the main areas of concern where an afternoon lake breeze will
keep temperatures cooler.

Monday night...low level jet ramps up across portions of the mid
Missouri Valley which will be the focus for initial nocturnal
convection.  As the low level jet veers late into the overnight
hours...several models indicate that convection will spread into
northwest and north central Illinois late Monday night. With the
main instability axis focused well to our west and veering/weakening
low level jet by the time precip approaches the local area...would
anticipate any convection to be weakening if and when it enters the
CWA. Maintained some slight chance/low chance PoPs mainly along and
west of the I-39 corridor and focused them towards the pre-dawn
hours early Tuesday morning.



217 PM CDT

Tuesday through Sunday...

Main forecast concerns/challenges are with periodic chances for
thunderstorms through the period.

The period will begin with approaching thunderstorm chances
Tuesday morning, as upper level ridge shifts to the east and as
steering flow helps to shift over more energetic flow across the
region. The stronger forcing coinciding with surface reflection
and frontal boundary will be further to the north over northern
Wisconsin Tuesday morning and even Tuesday afternoon. However,
guidance showing some thunderstorm development pushing through
eastern Iowa into west/northwest Illinois in the morning. This
scenario seems reasonable during that time, given eastward
shifting instability and moisture axis. Guidance continues to vary
to the extent of this development in the afternoon as it pushes
further east, with some guidance dry for most of the CWA in the
afternoon. Confidence lowers in the afternoon with thunderstorm
chances as it would appear any lingering development would follow
instability/moisture axis to the south of the cwa. Decent
instability and moisture in place for much of northern Illinois
would support any guidance showing thunderstorm chances for the
remaining cwa in the afternoon, and so have maintained slight
chance/chance wording for the entire cwa Tuesday afternoon. Flow
in the mid/upper levels is rather weak during this time, and think
thunderstorm organization would be limited if it occurred but with
dewpoints reaching the lower 60s and increasing instability, will
continue to monitor for the possibility for isolated strong storms
with any development Tuesday afternoon. With low confidence on
precip chances Tuesday, lower confidence with high temps as well.
However, airmass would support lower 80s, and have maintained that
in the grids.

After a possible lull in activity Tuesday evening, approaching
boundary from the north and increasing LLJ/shortwave energy will
likely support development once again later in the night into
Wednesday morning. Guidance showing frontal boundary continuing
south into northeast Illinois by Wednesday morning, with this
providing highly variable temp conditions Wednesday. Did lower
high temps for areas near the lake in northeast Illinois Wednesday
but if front were to have a stronger push, then think temps could
be even lower than the low to mid 60s now forecast. Higher
confidence for thunderstorm development on Wednesday now with a
frontal boundary anticipated to in be in place across the CWA.
Large scale ascent appears to be present for most of the day with
rather energetic flow aloft and have maintained likely pops for
the day, but possible ongoing thunderstorms in the morning is
providing lower confidence for thunderstorm intensity later in the
day. With dewpoints likely pooling along boundary, any location
south of the boundary that sees clearing will see instability ramp
up. So despite lower confidence, will need to continue to monitor
for additional chances for at least strong thunderstorms on
Wednesday. No real significant changes to remainder of the
forecast into late in the work week and weekend with mild/moist
conditions and energetic mid levels supportive of continued
chances of thunderstorms.




1210 am...Only concern this period will be wind directions and
possible lake breeze this afternoon. Light southeasterly winds
will turn more southerly around/shortly after sunrise. Directions
will then turn back to the south/southeast or southeasterly at the
Chicago area terminals by afternoon. A lake breeze will likely
develop...but confidence is low regarding how far inland it will
move...including at gyy where winds may become more easterly or
northeasterly in the afternoon. Speeds will likely remain in the
10-12 kt range this afternoon. Winds will then turn back
southerly after sunset with speeds diminishing under 10kts. cms



110 am...High pressure centered over the eastern lakes this
morning will move southeast to the Carolinas Tuesday morning. The
gradient will tighten this afternoon into tonight ahead of cold
front with southerly winds increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Speeds will
begin to diminish Tuesday afternoon with the cold front moving
across northern parts of Lake Michigan Tuesday evening and then
moving to the southern part of Lake Michigan by Wednesday morning.
Winds will shift northerly behind the front but the gradient is
not particularly strong so not expecting more then 10-20
most. As low pressure moves across the northern plains Wednesday
night into Thursday...this frontal boundary will lift back north
across the lake as a warm front with southerly winds then expected
into this weekend. cms





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