Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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000
FXUS63 KLOT 221946
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
246 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
135 AM CDT

SYNOPSIS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  WE WILL ALSO BE EXPERIENCING A SLOW WARMING
TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY AND THEN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S BY LATE WEEK.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AND IT WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE
CWA TODAY.  THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING AND BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK LAKE
BREEZE IS POSSIBLE IN COOK COUNTY LATE THIS AFTN. LOOKING AT A
BEAUTIFUL SUNNY FALL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
50S NEAR THE LAKE AND IN THE 40S IN THE OUTLYING AREAS.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TOMORROW AND LOOKING AT ANOTHER DRY AND SUNNY DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE A BIT WARMER IN THE LOW 70S.  THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY
ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO FORM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO MAY SEE TEMPS
STAY AROUND 70 ALONG THE LAKE. OTHERWISE LIGHT SW WINDS WILL
BECOME S TO SE IN THE AFTERNOON.

JEE

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
LARGE ANTI-CYCLONIC FEATURE WILL PERSIST...WITH A CONTINUED THEME OF
DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. MINIMAL CLOUD COVER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY RADIATE
INTO THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S. AFTN HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL
CONDS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S. POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE BREEZE IN
THE AFTN HOURS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS TO AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE
MICHIGAN.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM TERM.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE THE DRY THEME INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH
MID-LVL RIDGING PROGGED TO SLIDE OVERHEAD AND AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY
FRI/SAT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A CONTINUED MODERATION TO AFTN
TEMPS...POSSIBLY GOING ABOVE CLIMO IN THE UPR 70S TO PERHAPS 80
DEGREES SOUTH OF I-80 FRI/SAT. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THE MID-LVL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DISSOLVE AND DRIFT
EAST...WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION BEGINS TO PIVOT EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME THOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIP WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE DRY
CONDS AND MINIMAL CLOUDS/LGT WINDS...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO EASILY
RADIATE INTO THE LOW/MID 50S.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

BEACHLER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* NONE.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED. AN AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
TODAY...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT IT MAY REMAIN EAST OF THE MAIN AIR
FIELDS. EVEN IF IT WERE TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO ORD OR MDW LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WIND SPEEDS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN BELOW THE 10 KT
THRESHOLDS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PREDOMINATELY LIGHT WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY BACKING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS
TO THE EAST.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH FOR ALL ELEMENTS.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.

JEE

&&

.MARINE...
224 PM CDT

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RIDGING EXTENDING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN DIMINISHING WINDS TODAY. WAVES HAVE BEEN STEADILY
SUBSIDING TODAY WITH WAVES AT THE MICHIGAN CITY BUOY BELOW 4 FT...
SO WILL CANCEL THE REMAINDER OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH MIDWEEK...THE HIGH WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY EVENING WHERE THEY
SHOULD GENERALLY STAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.

&&

$$

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