Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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FXUS63 KLOT 231730
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
148 AM CDT

SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND IT WILL DOMINATE
THE PATTERN.  EXPECTING QUIET DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKE WHILE A LAKE
BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE IN THE UPPER 60S.

LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MAY SEE FEW TO SCT
CIRRUS AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND IOWA.  LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN VARY FROM THE LOW TO MID
50S DOWNTOWN TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE OUTLYING AREAS.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. WINDS WILL TURN OFF OF THE LAKE SO TEMPS ALONG THE
LAKE WILL TOP OUT AROUND 70.

JEE

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
BROAD ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION WED
NGT-FRI...DESPITE THE RIDGE CENTER BEING DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE
GREAT LAKES. WEAK MOISTURE STARVED MID-LVL TROUGH IS POISED TO PIVOT
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS WED NGT/THUR. EXPECT THIS TO PRODUCE A FEW
CLOUDS...THEN DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT RETURNS LATE THUR INTO FRI WITH
A RETURN TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. WITH THE LGT LLVL FLOW AND PERSISTENT
DRY WEATHER...THE SFC SHUD EASILY WARM INTO THE MID 70S THUR TO
PERHAPS THE UPR 70S FRI. AFTN LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP THE ADJACENT
AREAS COOLER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW/MID
50S...WITH A FEW POINTS DIPPING INTO THE UPR 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
500MB RIDGE ARRIVES LATE WEEK AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU THE
WEEKEND...WITH ENSEMBLES INDICATING A STEADY WEAKENING TO THE
STRENGTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIME A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP...WHICH COULD SLOW THE RATE
OF WEAKENING TO THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE CONTINUED
DRY PATTERN AND LGT FLOW...SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN SEASONAL TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE IN THE MID 70S WITH AFTN LAKE BREEZES KEEPING NEARBY
LAND SLIGHTLY COOLER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW/MID
50S.

BEACHLER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* WINDS TURNING SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A LAKE BREEZE.

KDONOFRI

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. LAKE BREEZE IS ATTEMPTING TO FORM
BASED ON A SHIFT IN ALONG SHORE OBSERVATIONS DRIFTING TO A SSE
DIRECTION. EXPECT IT TO DRIFT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY BELOW 10 KT. WINDS THEN SETTLE TO THE SE AND WEAKEN IN
THE EVENING AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP TO
ARND 7 KT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE IS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY A BIT SOONER THAN TODAY AS
THE HIGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC
PUSH.

KMD


//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE TIMING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
  IN ASSOCIATED WIND SPEED.

KMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR WITH AFTN LAKE BREEZES.

MONDAY...VFR.

JEE

&&

.MARINE...
148 AM CDT

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH A LAKE BREEZE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  FLOW OVER THE OPEN WATERS WILL BE
WEAK AND OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY A
BIT MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE WHERE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST TO EAST.  WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASE TO 10-20 KT MONDAY.

JEE

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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