Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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FXUS63 KLOT 010902
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
402 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
330 AM CDT

THROUGH THURSDAY...

DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. PROBABLY
BIGGEST FORECAST QUESTION IS IN REGARDS TO THE EXTENT OF
CLOUDINESS AS WE REMAIN CLOSE TO THE FRINGES OF THE CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NW FLOW TO OUR WEST
AND SOUTH. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SHOWERS COULD
SNEAK INTO OUR FARTHER SOUTHERN FRINGES OF OUR CWA TODAY...BUT
CHANCES LOOK SLIM. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE LAKE SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AT THE BEACHES...WHICH IS PRETTY
CHILLY BY JULY STANDARDS...WHILE FARTHER INLAND AWAY FROM THE
COOLING INFLUENCES OF THE LAKE WARM INTO THE 70S.

IZZI

&&

.LONG TERM...
330 AM CDT

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR COOL AND DRY WEATHER
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR VERY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE LAKE BREEZES AND ASSOCIATED LAKE COOLING.
BY THE WEEKEND...TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMS AS GRADIENT FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
KICKS IN. FLOW LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH SATURDAY TO ALLOW WEAK ILLINOIS
LAKE BREEZE TO FORM...AND CAN`T EVEN RULE IT OUT SUNDAY
EITHER...THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY POSSIBLE LAKE COOLING LOOKS
TO BE FAR LESS OVER THE WEEKEND.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES UNTIL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME NOW...SO OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO
SNEAKING INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

IZZI

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...

* MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

BMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD PROVIDING NORTHEAST WINDS AND DRY WEATHER. SOME
MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS OVERSPREADING THE
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THERE ARE PATCHY MVFR
OBS UPSTREAM...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO INCLUDE...BUT 10Z-16Z SEEMS
LIKE THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME IF IT DOES OCCUR. A LAKE BREEZE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE WIND AOA 10 KT UNTIL THE
EVENING WHEN WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER AGAIN.

BMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN END TIME OF MVFR CIGS.

BMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

* THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
314 AM CDT

NORTH WINDS HAVE PICKED UP INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AT TIMES IN
BETWEEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A
RIDGE OVER ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS GRADUALLY ABATING FROM THE NORTH
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST WINDS
LOOK TO FRESHEN UP AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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