Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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068
FXUS63 KARX 082335
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
535 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

IMPROVEMENT IS THE NAME OF THE GAME IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK AND BEYOND AS DEEP UPPER TROUGHING FIRMLY IN
PLACE AT THE MOMENT VERY SLOWLY PULLS TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW STRETCHED OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS/MID MISS VALLEY WILL HELP STEER PERSISTENT LOWER LEVEL
RIDGING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE REGION...
ENSURING A CONTINUATION OF RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES. THE FLIP
SIDE OF THAT EQUATION IS THAT DRY WEATHER SHOULD MAKE A RETURN BY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK.

PRIOR TO THAT...STILL DEALING WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS WITHIN A
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ENVIRONMENT...AND FULLY EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE RIGHT ON INTO TONIGHT AND LIKELY IN PART OF TUESDAY AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. WITH THAT
SAID...EXPECT COVERAGE MORE IN LINE WITH A FLURRY WORDING LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO DECREASE BUT THE
REMAINING CLOUD TOP TEMPS REMAINS SQUARELY IN THE DGZ...WITH
LOWER CLOUDS AND PERIODIC FLURRIES POTENTIALLY EVEN HOLDING PUT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (THOUGH SOME REALLY DECENT TRENDS FOR CLEARING
SHOWING UP INTO WESTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON). AS FOR ONGOING
IMPACTS FROM GUSTY WINDS...STILL SEEING SOME HINTS OF BLOWING SNOW
AND REDUCED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA...BUT HONESTLY A
LOT OF THAT IS STRONGLY TIED TO WHERE AND WHEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING FOR OUR CWA...WITH THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS CLEARLY
HOLDING TO THE WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CALLS AROUND TO
DISPATCHERS AND WEBCAMS/SNOWPLOW CAMS REALLY SHOW THE WORST
CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AS SUCH...HAVE
OPTED TO CANCEL ALL OF OUR GOING HEADLINES A FEW HOURS EARLY.
STILL LIKELY TO SEE A LITTLE BIT OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES THIS FAR EAST.

OTHERWISE...STILL WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH IOWA LATER
TUESDAY RIGHT ON INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE REALLY
COLD AIR...AND WITHIN A NARROW AXIS OF FGEN RESPONSE. GIVEN THE
SETUP WITH SOME QUITE DRY AIR FIRMLY WEDGED IN ACROSS OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS...DON`T FORESEE THIS BEING AN ISSUE WHATSOEVER...MINUS
PERHAPS DELIVERING SOME BOUTS OF THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT DIVING IN
FROM THE NORTH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE
GIVEN MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING JUST HOW STRONG THAT REINFORCING
COLD SHOT WILL BE THIS FAR WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER
STORY...WITH HIGHS STUCK MAINLY IN THE TEENS THROUGH THE WEEK AND
LOWS EITHER SIDE OF 0 DEGREES... MODULATED MAINLY BY JUST HOW MUCH
THICKER MID CLOUD COVER SURVIVES THIS FAR EAST. THE COLDEST DAY
STILL LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE MET DURING THE MORNING AND HIGHS MAINLY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES. OVERALL...LOOKING
AND FEELING JUST LIKE THE FIRST HALF OF FEBRUARY TYPICALLY DOES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STILL NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS AS HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS OVERALL UPPER
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE ARE
SIGNS THAT TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE EASTWARD SUNDAY...ALLOWING
WEAKISH SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BRIEFLY ARRIVE BY SUNDAY NIGHT...IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
NOW THAT FEATURE MAY BRING OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BY
MONDAY...WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR STILL AROUND TO ALLOW ANYTHING THAT
FALLS TO REMAIN SNOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SLOWLY MODERATE AS WE
BREAK DOWN THE PATTERN...WITH PERHAPS A BETTER SHOT TO REBOUND BACK
ABOVE NORMAL JUST AFTER THE TAILS END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF TAF AIRFIELDS NO
LATER THAN 08.03Z. WITHIN THESE SHOWERS...EXPECT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FROM 1 TO 4SM WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1500
AND 3000 FT AGL. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD...EXPECT PERIODS OF FLURRIES AND VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
AT KLSE/KRST RESPECTIVELY. MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM 15 TO 20 KTS SUSTAINED AND OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ROGERS



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