Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 282330
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
630 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

A closed 500 mb low/trough was rotating across northern parts of the
region this afternoon, and is slated to continue to pull northeast
over the next couple days. All models keep the Upper Mississippi
River Valley under northwest flow through Tue though, with various
ripples in the flow spinning across the area. Decent low level lapse
rates with some low level cold air advection. Weak instability
builds in during the afternoons - roughly 500 J/kg of mucape. There
will be some moisture to work with as GFS/NAM RH fields and
bufkit soundings point to some saturation centered in the 850-700
mb layer. All in all, the lift/moisture points to a scattered
shower threat (mostly during the day) for the next couple days,
with some isolated thunder threat in the afternoon.

Temperatures are going to take a tumble with the cold air spilling
in from the north, along with clouds and some showers. Highs in the
mid 60s for most. It should be fairly breezy on Monday too, adding a
little rawness for the Memorial day holiday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

GFS/EC keep the region under northwest flow a loft into the middle
part of the new week, suggesting a transition to a bit more zonal
flow for the weekend. Weak high pressure promises a day or two of
dry conditions, centered on Wed, but fairly active after that with
various shortwave troughs spinning across the Upper Mississippi
River Valley.

Cool start to the week should see some warming for the later half -
with temps closer to the early June normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

VFR conditions out there at the moment and that won`t change
overnight or for much of Memorial Day either. Diurnally-enhanced
higher based cumulus will fade into early evening with loss of
heating, but we will be watching some showers and a few storms
working across southwest Minnesota, as there is a very low risk
that the remnants of these could briefly impact RST into mid or
late evening. However, continue to believe much of this activity
will fade as we further lose daytime heating. Bigger story looks
to be thicker stratus/stratocumulus overspreading the area behind
the passage of a cold front for Monday, with ceilings mainly in
the 3500-5000 ft range, though with a risk for a few MVFR values
toward RST at times. Winds will become gusty again from the west
with gusts to around 25 knots likely, with a smattering of showers
and a few thunderstorms and expected, though the expected
scattered nature of such activity precludes more than a vicinity
mention for now.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Elevated river levels continue along the Mississippi River. If you
are planning any recreational activities on the Mississippi River be
alert for these high water levels and watch out for debris in the
water that may pose a threat to watercraft.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rieck
LONG TERM....Rieck
AVIATION...Lawrence
HYDROLOGY...Wetenkamp


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