Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 241731

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

One more day of uncertainty around the convective potential before
we get a respite for a few days. 08z data showing the cold front
pushing southeast across MN, running from the Twin Cities down to
KFRM. There was some convection along the front, but it was from the
Cities northward. Moisture transport and thermodynamic support
point to the action staying up there, but some of the mesoscale
models were still trying to develop some activity across southeast
MN and northeast IA. However, looking at the latest radar trends and
model runs, this support is waning. With chances dwindling, have
made a change to the forecast with less rain chance this morning.
Once the front goes through by midday, that should be it. Cool high
pressure begins to build in tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

High pressure will remain in control Monday into Tuesday, providing
a needed break from the rain, heat, and humidity. But a zonal flow
regime sets up across the region for the remainder of the week,
bringing periodic short waves of varying strength. The first of
which comes late Tuesday into Wednesday. Another impacts the region
Thursday, with yet another on Friday. There will be some dry periods
in there, but it does appear that having rain chances in the
forecast every day is the best way to go. Temperatures are looking
to be near or below normal through the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A FEW to SCT
cumulus are possible this afternoon with cloud bases around 3500
ft. Also, cirrus will overspread the TAF sites becoming BKN at
times at least through early evening. Winds will become light
tonight as high pressure builds in. Drier air moving in tonight,
along with winds just above the surface staying in the 15 to 20 kt
range, should prevent fog formation despite KLSE seeing 1.35
inches of rain yesterday.


.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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