Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 060425

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1025 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

Issued at 550 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

Winds have significantly subsided after sunset. Therefore, the
Wind Advisory that was in in effect until 6 pm this evening has
been cancelled.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1253 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

Abrupt switch to winter is manifesting itself in form of strong west
winds, sharply colder temperatures, low clouds, and intermittent
flurries or snow showers as area resides in northwest flow behind
slowly exiting cyclone.

Still experiencing some wind gusts above 40 mph this afternoon as
pressure gradient remains tight across the region. Some relaxing
expected heading into tonight but decrease will be gradual. Wind
advisory will be allowed to drop off but it will still remain windy
well into tomorrow.

Main focus is cloud trends and then snow chances for Wednesday.
Cyclonic flow has led to more development today than previously
expected but some of this should clear out this evening as slightly
drier wedge of air drifts in from the west. Clouds may hang tough
the further northeast you go though.

Models in good agreement trending higher moisture back southward on
Wednesday, and with weak lift noted in lower levels, could likely
see expansion of clouds lead to more flurries or snow showers.
Southward extent of clouds and flurries still in question but this
element certainly increased in forecast.

Welcome to winter.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1253 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

Looking an awful lot like winter the next 10 days, with maybe a
brief reprieve to the coldest temperatures sometime toward the
weekend. As much-discussed over the past few days, the overall
pattern across North America will remain dominated by pronounced
western ridging as well as ridging into Greenland, effectively
draining the coldest air from Canada southward into much of the
central and eastern CONUS into at least the middle portion of next
week (some hints this pattern will remain locked the next 2-3
weeks). That setup will tend to keep us near to below normal in the
temperature department, with various reinforcing rounds of colder
air being introduced by a myriad of shortwaves dropping through the
mean overall trough centered over the Great Lakes. Starting to see a
little more run-to-run consistency among guidance for the timing of
said waves through late week, with the next of interest arriving
Wednesday evening and night and another on its heels toward Friday
and Friday night.

The leading wave later Wednesday doesn`t have much in the way of
moisture, though with all of the cloud deck bisecting the dendritic
growth region, have few doubts we`ll see widespread flurries or even
a little light snow for many areas. With that said, still looking
for a stronger wave to arrive Friday into Friday night with
increasing consensus many areas will pick up a little light snow
accumulation, though likely with limited impacts given the expected
"fluffy" nature of any snow. Thereafter, still looking like we may
see a brief retreat of the coldest air later in the weekend but with
another reinforcing shot arriving early next week (timing still
somewhat uncertain). Overall, a very typical winter-time pattern
across the area - colder weather fans rejoice!


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1025 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

Quiet/VFR conditions expected through the overnight hours. This
will be short-lived though as another trough of low pressure drops
through the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. This will bring
more clouds and scattered snow shower activity along with brisk
northwest winds. Plan on mostly VFR conditions, but could see
brief bouts of MVFR visibility in heavier snow showers along with
lower ceilings.




LONG TERM...Lawrence
AVIATION...DAS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.