Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 242056
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
256 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IS ON LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...TRACKING SOUTHEAST.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED  WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS
THESE AREAS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST MODELS HAVE LATCHED ONTO A MORE
SOUTHWEST SOLUTION COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS TAKING THE BULK OF
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE WAVE
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES INTO IOWA THIS EVENING PLACING AN ENHANCED
BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW.
18Z GUIDANCE IS TRICKLING IN AND IS SUGGESTING A SHIFT EVEN
FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH THE MAIN ACCUMULATING SNOW
OCCURRING SOUTH AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 52 CORRIDOR ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA. ANOTHER FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS EVENING IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWEST
OUT OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OUT OF
THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES IN THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE SOUTHWARD
SHIFT AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD ONLY SEE LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY IN THE TRACE TO 1 INCH RANGE.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY WARM LATE THIS AFTERNOON SO WE
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SWITCHES
OVER TO SNOW. THE LOW EXITS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SNOW ENDING.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 INCH TO AROUND 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. PLAN ON SLIPPERY TRAVEL AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH MONDAY AN
MAY GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH A SWITCH OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING AS ICE IS LOST ALOFT.  A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE IF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. RIDGING
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A RATHER PLEASANT DAY
FOR LATE JANUARY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 30S AND
POSSIBLY EVEN THE LOWER 40S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
A TROUGH THEN SWEEPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS SLIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER
20S. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BRINING SNOW CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL A
LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHS FALLING INTO THE LOWER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

24.1730Z SATELLITE SHOWS A SHARP CLEARING LINE ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE MS RIVER. EVEN IF KLSE REMAINS ON THE CLOUDY SIDE OF THIS
DISCONTINUITY...UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS REPORT VFR CEILINGS. EXPECT
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH SITES BEFORE
MVFR CEILINGS/LIGHT SNOW DROP SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF LOWER CEILINGS AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY
AT KLSE AS LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND FARTHER
SOUTHWEST TRACK TO THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND. WILL DROP KRST INTO THE
IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT BY MID-SUNDAY
MORNING. SNOW WILL EXIT KLSE A BIT CLOSER TO SUNRISE. WILL NEED TO
FURTHER FINE-TUNE TIMING OF SNOW AND SEVERITY OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH FUTURE FORECASTS/UPDATES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...ROGERS



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