Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 311254
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
754 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER
40S THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...THE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 8 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

A SFC HIGH SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA HAS CLEARED THE SKIES FOR
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH GOOD DIURNAL COOLING/LIGHT
WINDS LIKELY LEADING TO SOME AREAS/PATCHY FROST ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BADGER STATE. WILL CONTINUE THE
CURRENT FROST ADVISORY FOR THE I-94 CORRIDOR WEST/NORTH EARLY THIS
MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIP ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION LATER TODAY...BUT ISN/T PACKING MUCH OF A PUNCH AND WILL
HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE CALMING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS THIS EVENING SHOULD BE THE ONLY IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA.

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AS THE HIGH SLOWLY
MEANDERS TO THE EAST. IT WILL STAY RELATIVELY COOL INTO MONDAY -
WITH HIGHS STICKING TO THE 60S...BUT A SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
FETCH WILL SEND TEMPS BACK ON THE UPWARD CLIMB STARTING TUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

NO CHANGE IN THE MAIN QUESTION FOR NEXT WEEK - WHETHER THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY PIECES
OF ENERGY SPINNING OUT OF THE WEST COAST STRONG AT BAY - SHUNTING
THEM NORTH AND SOUTH.

THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITHIN ITSELF...AND THE DRIEST OF THE
MODELS...SUGGESTING THE HIGH WILL WORK WELL AS A BARRIER FOR ANY
PCPN...AND NOT BRINGING RAIN IN UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI. THE PREVIOUSLY
WET EC TRENDED BACK TO THE DRIER SUGGESTIONS OF THE GFS AT 12Z...
WHICH IT WAS DOING A COUPLE DAYS AGO. THE LATEST 00Z RUN KEEPS THIS
DRY/GFS TREND BUT HINTS THAT RAIN COULD GET A BIT MORE EAST THAN ITS
12Z RUN. EXPECTED SOME FLIP FLOPPING WITH RESPECT TO THE
RIDGE/SHORTWAVE INTERACTIONS...BUT IT LOWERS FORECAST CONFIDENCE A
BIT. PREFER THE DRIER SOLUTION BUT BEING ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF
WHERE SHORTWAVES COULD ENCROACH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME
SMALL POPS FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
WED/THU TIME FRAME. PROBABLY WON/T HAVE A BETTER FEEL FOR THE
STOPPING POWER OF THE RIDGE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WHILE PCPN CHANCES ARE PRESENTING SOME CHALLENGES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...THEY ARE AGREEING THAT WARMING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS WILL
OCCUR. THE SOUTHERLY ASPECT OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO
SOME 80 DEGREE HIGHS FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING. DUE TO
A DRY AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOME MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS...CEILING HEIGHTS ABOVE 10000 FEET...OVER THE RST/LSE TAF
SITES AFTER 23Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN OR AROUND 10 KNOTS AT BOTH RST/LSE TAF
SITES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DTJ
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DTJ



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