Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 232334
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
534 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

FIRST FORECAST CONCERN IS CLOUD TRENDS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AS FLOW
TURNS NORTHWEST AND ADVECTS STRATUS INTO THE REGION. CURRENTLY THE
STRATUS DECK IS WORKING SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH
CLOUD BASES AROUND 1500 FT. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE
SREF VISIBILITY PROBS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY TO
AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND ACROSS THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA. IF THE
FOG DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY ALSO OCCUR.
CONFIDENCE LOW ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING SO HAVE NOT
ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST.

THE NEXT FEATURE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT AND DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM
HAVE SHIFTED THE HEAVIER BAND SOUTHWEST NOW...IMPACTING PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE NAM IS STICKING TO A MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION
PLACING THE HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE
SNOW...CONFIDENCE ON LOCATIONS THAT COULD SEE A 3-5 INCH BAND IS
NOT. MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTESTATE 94 SHOULD SEE
AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES WITH AN ENHANCED BAND POSSIBLE. WHERE
THIS BAND SETS UP A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. IF THE SOUTHERLY TRACK
HOLDS...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY NOT SEE ANY SNOW. THE ECMWF
AND GFS SOLUTIONS ALSO SUGGEST THERE COULD BE BREEZY CONDITIONS
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. A LITTLE BIT TOO FAR OUT TO NAIL DOWN
AMOUNTS BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT. A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THEN FINALLY SHIFTS
EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING SOME MILDER
AIR INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY POSSIBLY REACHING THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THIS BRIEF WARM-UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE AIR BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

A MORE TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY BECAUSE
THE LOW CLOUDS HEADING TOWARDS THE TAF SITES ARE NOT AS EXPANSIVE
ACROSS MINNESOTA AS MODELS HAVE FORECASTED THEM TO BE. IN
FACT...THEY ARE JUST APPROACHING MSP AND EAU...WITH MSP ABOUT THE
WESTERN EDGE. WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT...BELIEVE
THESE WILL STILL GET TO THE TAF SITES...BUT HAVE HAD TO DELAY THE
ARRIVAL A FEW HOURS. NIGHTTIME COOLING SHOULD HELP TO LOWER
CEILINGS AS WELL...KNOCKING RST DOWN TO IFR TOWARDS 08Z. DRIER AIR
PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN...FLOWING IN ON
NORTHWEST WINDS...SHOULD THEN PUSH OUT THE SECTION OF LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE TAF SITES AROUND 12-13Z...PER THE RAP MODEL WHICH HAS
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE LOW CLOUD SITUATION. FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY...LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO STAY MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94...
THOUGH THEY COULD TRY TO MAKE A RUN AT THE TAF SITES LATE IN THE
DAY. IF THEY DO...IT APPEARS CEILINGS SHOULD BE VFR AIDED BY
DAYTIME HEATING.

REGARDING WINDS...EXPECT THEM TO STAY IN THE 5-15 KT SPEED
RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGHEST AT RST. A VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST IS PLANNED THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY A BACKING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE DAKOTAS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...AJ



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