000
FXUS63 KARX 291913
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
215 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Scattered showers and isolated storms moving east/southeast across
the region this afternoon. Upper level shortwave trough, cold air
aloft-decent low level lapse rates, and a bit of instability
providing the lift for the pcpn. With much of it diurnally driven,
expect the activity to weaken/diminish with sunset - and
should be done before midnight.

Closed 500 mb low/trough wobbling slowly across the region/southern
Canada, gradually slated to lift northeast of the region Wed night.
Cold air advection continues in the low levels, with various bits of
upper level energy rotating through the trough. Coupled with
favorable low level lapse rates and weak (mostly afternoon)
instability /200-500 J/kg mucape/ and scattered showers will persist
into Tue evening. Isolated storms possible, Tue afternoon - moreso
for parts of northeast IA/southwest WI.

Expect another relatively cool day Tue with the clouds and showers
lending a hand in holding highs well below the late May normals.
Upper 50s to mid 60s expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

A brief break from the constant shower chances expected for Wed into
Thu as both the GFS and EC continue to paint a sfc high across the
Upper Mississippi River Valley. Both then want to lift a west-east
running warm front northward across the local forecast area Thu
night. This boundary could sit there into Saturday morning,
providing a good focus for shower/storm development - with moisture
transport/low level jet and bits of upper level energy also working
on the front. See some potential for training storms and heavy rain,
but its too early to discern the extent and any flooding potential.
Something to watch though.

By next weekend some suggestion for some shortwave ridging a loft,
with a sfc high meandering in from southern Canada. A couple more
dry days could be the result. That said, latest 12z EC backtracks on
that - sliding another shortwave across the region. Pretty good
chance for showers/storms in this latest rendition. Considering the
model inconsistency and disagreements, will let the model blend
dictate rain chances in this period.

After a cool start to the week, temps look to rebound to something
close to the early June normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

A large trough of low pressure will remain over the region and
impact the KRST/KLSE airports through Tuesday. Plan on the scattered
showers and breezy west wind to diminish after sunset with VFR
conditions prevailing. More showers are expected during the daytime
heating Tuesday with cloud bases hovering between MVFR/VFR.
Otherwise, visibility in showers are expected to remain VFR. Look
for northwest winds to become gusty again by mid-morning Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

A Flood Warning continues along the Mississippi River at both
McGregor and Guttenberg Dam 10. Meanwhile elevated river levels
continue along the Mississippi River north of McGregor.  If you are
planning any recreational activities on the Mississippi River be
alert for these high water levels and watch out for debris in the
water that may pose a threat to watercraft.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rieck
LONG TERM....Rieck
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY...Boyne