000
FXUS63 KARX 050952
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
352 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION TODAY PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS TODAY.
THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND USHER IN A MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS FOR FRIDAY.
WE WILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT THOUGH WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COOLER WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
BELOW ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 30S ON
FRIDAY...THEN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WE COULD EVEN
SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACH 40 NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KEEPING A
CLOSE EYE ON A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SLIDING THROUGH THAT MAY
GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS TRENDING A
LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS A
LITTLE STRONGER SHOWING A BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE CANADIAN TAKES THE BAND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON SEEING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THESE GIVEN THE
DIFFERING FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS.

WE FINALLY GET OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH FLOW TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE
MILD TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND WE COULD
EVEN SEE A FEW READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S. WITH THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES FORECAST WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAMS ALONG SOME OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

PERHAPS A FEW MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FOR LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON ON
THU...BUT CONDITIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE THAN TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER IOWA. DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY CIGS.

EXPECTING A TURN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST IN WIND DIRECTION FROM
THIS EVENING INTO THU EVENING...THANKS TO A SFC HIGH MEANDERING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS IA. WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN AT KLSE WITH DECOUPLING.
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY SLACK THROUGH THU...TIGHTENING
UP THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. LLWS COULD BE
AN ISSUE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER 06Z FRI WITH WINDS AROUND 45 KTS BY
1500 FT PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...RIECK