000
FXUS63 KARX 082013
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
213 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

FORECAST FOCUS ON DEPARTURE OF SNOW TONIGHT...AND COLD TEMPS
THROUGH MONDAY.

19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER STILL WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS KS/OK REGION...BUT BROAD OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH PLENTY TO PRODUCE
SNOW OVER THE ARCTIC DOME IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SO FAR
THE SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE NOT BEEN TERRIBLY EXCITING...1-2 INCHES OR
LESS. BUT HEAVIEST SNOW YET TO COME PER RADAR LOOP. FOCUS HAS
SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND NOW ANTICIPATE THE HIGHER SNOW
AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST
WI. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE MAIN LIFT AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE DEPARTS. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...BRINGING IN ANOTHER
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. TEMPS WILL SLIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BY MORNING...AND WITH INCREASING WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL
DIP TO 10-20 BELOW ZERO. LITTLE OR NO WARMING DURING THE DAY AS
COLD ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE. BRISK WINDS MAY RESULT IN SOME
DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME PATCHY AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW IN MORE OPEN AREAS. THIS WAS INTRODUCED INTO THE
GRIDS LAST NIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE IT THERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

WINDS DIE OFF AND SNOW ENDS BY MONDAY EVENING AS SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO NOSE DIVE BELOW ZERO...TAKING
THE WIND CHILL DOWN WITH IT. WE WILL PROBABLY NEED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR SOME AREAS...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ADDED ONCE THE SNOW
HEADLINE IS DONE. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING THE NEXT
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE PICTURE ALREADY BY MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS ONE WILL PRIMARILY BRING SNOW TO NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL
WI...WITH UP TO AN INCH BY TUESDAY MORNING. NEXT ONE WILL ZIP IN
TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...AROUND AN INCH ANTICIPATED. AND MODELS ALSO POINTING TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING TROUGH THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CLIP OUR AREA...SO INTRODUCED LOW
CHANCES FOR SNOW. NO BIG WARM- UPS SEEN THROUGH THE WEEK...
ALTHOUGH WE MAY GET BACK UP INTO THE 20S LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

MESSY AVIATION FORECAST...TYPICAL IN THIS TYPE OF WEATHER. WILL BE A
LOT OF BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR AS WAVES OF SNOW
MOVE THROUGH. LIFT AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE SHOULD CONTINUE CURRENT TREND
OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER SNOW AND HENCE A TREND TOWARDS MORE IFR AS THE
AFTERNOON GOES ON. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 SO COULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ALREADY.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WIND SHIFTS WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY MORNING AND
INCREASE QUITE A BIT. WHILE MARGINAL...INTRODUCED A LITTLE BLOWING
SNOW AT KRST TAF SITE BUT GUESSING AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL
SINCE MOST OF THE PROBLEM WILL BE DRIFTING SNOW INSTEAD.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-
     019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...SHEA