Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 152329
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
529 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

15.20Z water vapor loop shows the center of today`s clipper system
rotating over the MN/IA border while its surface low has moved over
southern Lake Michigan. An inverted trough still extends across
southern and western WI with light snow continuing to fall mainly
east of the Mississippi River. Watching a lake-enhanced band of
heavier snow west of Green Bay. Latest RAP/HRRR suggest this snow
should rotate westward into areas along and northeast of I-94
later this afternoon and early evening. Assuming this happens,
another 1-2 inches of snow is possible. Otherwise, additional
accumulations are expected to remain below an inch. Will keep
Winter Weather Advisory for now, but may be able to cancel it
early later this evening.

Strong northwest winds will continue late this afternoon and into
the evening before finally diminishing later tonight. Frequent
gusts from 25 to 35 mph will result in areas of blowing and
drifting snow, especially for areas along and west of the MS
River. Some of this drifting snow may cause additional slick spots
on area roadways so motorists should continue to exercise
caution.

Slightly higher air temperatures have kept wind chills warmer for
much of today, but finally starting to see some 20 to 25 below
zero readings across southeast MN. These wind chills should expand
in coverage to include much of southeast MN and northeast IA
through tonight, so will maintain the current Wind Chill Advisory.

High pressure builds across the region on Tuesday, resulting in
the dry conditions and gradually decreasing clouds from northwest
to southeast. Northwest wind will continue, but also diminish
through the day. Expect highs to range from the single digits west
of the MS River to the low 20s across central WI.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Besides the passage of a dry Canadian short-wave on Thursday, the
rest of the work week into Saturday favors 500 hPa ridging. This
will result in dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures.
Highs by Friday into Saturday could flirt with 40 degrees in some
areas.

All eyes are on the potential for a significant winter storm
somewhere across the Upper Midwest Sunday into Monday. A deep 500
hPa trough takes shape across the Four Corners region by 00Z
Sunday, closing off and then ejecting northeastward through
Monday. The track of this system will be critical in determining
the placement of precipitation as well as the precipitation type.
Being 6-7 days out, run-to-run model consistency remains poor, but
definitely something to watch throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 529 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

MVFR to potential IFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites
through most of the overnight hours. Improvement to VFR is
expected during the day Tuesday. IFR conditions are possible this
evening at KLSE in snow before it ends by midnight. Clouds look
to lower to IFR late tonight into early Tuesday morning at KRST
but confidence wasn`t high enough to include this in the TAF. Will
continue to look at this potential closely and this may have to
be added if confidence increases.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
     WIZ032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for WIZ017-
     029.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.

IA...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for IAZ008>011-018-
     019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rogers
LONG TERM...Rogers
AVIATION...Wetenkamp


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