Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 161731
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1131 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH
THE PASSING SYSTEM. LOOKING AT RADAR LOOPS...THERE ARE ACTUALLY
TWO DISTINCT CIRCULATIONS SHOWN...WITH THE MAIN SWIRL OVER IL...
AND ANOTHER JUST WEST OF GREEN BAY. MAIN DEFORMATION BAND WITH THE
SOUTHERN SWIRL FROM NORTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL WI. NORTHERN
DEFORMATION BAND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN UP INTO THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WI. WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID
UP THROUGH 1 AM...BUT A MIX WAS SUGGESTED BY SURFACE OBS AND LAPS
TEMPERATURE FIELDS TO BE JUST MOVING INTO OUR AREA OF SOUTHEAST
MN. THANKFULLY...THE MAIN PUNCH OF THIS COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM IS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO PULL AWAY...SO WITH ONLY LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP LEFT TO FALL...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR ICY MIX. ONLY THREAT FOR AN ACCUMULATION
LOOKS TO BE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF OUR SERVICE AREA.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE
20-30 MPH RANGE...AND GUSTS UP NEAR 40 MPH. ACCOMPANIED BY FALLING
TEMPS TODAY...EXPECT RAW WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TODAY AND SINGLE
DIGITS TONIGHT BEFORE WIND SPEEDS SUBSIDE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MANITOBA THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL END UP MERGING WITH OUR
CURRENT CLOSED CIRCULATION AS THE WHOLE CONGLOMERATION WOBBLES
AROUND THE GREAT LAKES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH SOME LIFT
GENERATED BY THIS SECOND WAVE...AND WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR
ARRIVING TO HELP SQUEEZE OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE FROM THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...ANTICIPATE SOME FLURRIES WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT
GENERALLY NORTH OF I-90...AND INTO WEDNESDAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-94.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THURSDAY...AND
LOOKS TO HANG AROUND ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS VERY BLOCKED ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...
WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACKS WELL SOUTH AND WELL NORTH OF OUR
GENERAL AREA. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE BENIGN WEATHER WITH NO
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

THE PATTERN DOES APPEAR TO TRANSITION TO MORE ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW AS
WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL DISCREPANCIES IN THE
VARIOUS MODEL OUTPUTS AS TO WHAT THAT MEANS FOR OUR AREA.
BUT...FOR THE SNOW LOVERS OUT THERE...DO NOT GIVE UP ON A WHITE
CHRISTMAS JUST YET...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

RADAR SHOWS THE LAST OF THE SNOW BAND WITH THE DEPARTING LOW TO PUSH
EAST OF KLSE AROUND 19Z. WHILE TO THE WEST...DEEPER CYCLONIC
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO MN
WAS SQUEEZING OUT SOME FLURRIES AND SCT MVFR VSBYS ACROSS MUCH OF
MN. AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN ON THE BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS...EXPECT VSBYS IN ANY LINGERING FLURRIES TO BE
MAINLY 6SM OR GREATER BY MID AFTERNOON. CIGS UPSTREAM OF THE TAF
SITES MAINLY 1500-2500 FT. LINGERING IFR CIGS AT KRST SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY 20Z. MVFR CIGS THEN LOOK TO PERSIST THRU THE TAF PERIOD
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW REMAIN OVER THE
AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS TO REMAIN BRISK/GUSTY INTO THE EVENING THEN
SLOWLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS FOR WED MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04



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