Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 290823
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
303 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MARQUETTE MICHIGAN TO VINTON
IOWA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE AROUND
70. MEANWHILE IN THE WAKE OF FRONT...DEW POINTS RANGED FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERED ACROSS SOUTHERN
CLAYTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WITH THE MESO MODELS SHOWING THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL
END BY 29.10Z...THEY WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND
DOWNSLOPE OFF THE PLAINS WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY SUNNY TODAY. WITH
DIURNAL MIXING...MOST AREAS WILL MIX UP TO 800 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS TO MIXED TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES
BETWEEN 29.16Z AND 30.01Z.

WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY BELOW 800 MB AND ONLY A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THROUGHOUT MUCH OF TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS ROUNDING THE WESTERN RIDGE. DUE TO MODERATE
TO STRONG FLOW ALOFT...THESE SYSTEM WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EVERY 12 TO 24 HOURS. INITIALLY FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO PARCHED IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR.

WITH SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW VERY DRY BELOW 800 MB AND ONLY
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG
ON EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE MODELS HAVE A BIT MORE
CONSISTENCY THAT MODERATE 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN MESCOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THIS WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
WHILE THE 0-3 KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS /FAVORABLE
FOR LINE OR LINES OF STORMS/...THE 0-1 KM CAPES WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL ONLY BE UP TO 1000 J/K...SO THERE ARE STILL
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER.

ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS A QUESTION...SO DID NOT MAKE TOO
ANY MODIFICATIONS FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH KRST THIS EVENING AND WILL
HAVE GONE THROUGH KLSE BY 06Z. SHOWERS COMING NORTHEAST OUT OF
CENTRAL IOWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST WITH THE 29.02Z
HRRR-CR SHOWING THESE MISSING KLSE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST...SO DO
NOT PLAN TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS IN EITHER
TAF. STILL EXPECTING A BREEZY DAY WEDNESDAY ONCE THE INVERSION
MIXES OUT WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THESE WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE DOWN EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04



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