Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 290433

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1133 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

A closed 500 mb low/trough was rotating across northern parts of the
region this afternoon, and is slated to continue to pull northeast
over the next couple days. All models keep the Upper Mississippi
River Valley under northwest flow through Tue though, with various
ripples in the flow spinning across the area. Decent low level lapse
rates with some low level cold air advection. Weak instability
builds in during the afternoons - roughly 500 J/kg of mucape. There
will be some moisture to work with as GFS/NAM RH fields and
bufkit soundings point to some saturation centered in the 850-700
mb layer. All in all, the lift/moisture points to a scattered
shower threat (mostly during the day) for the next couple days,
with some isolated thunder threat in the afternoon.

Temperatures are going to take a tumble with the cold air spilling
in from the north, along with clouds and some showers. Highs in the
mid 60s for most. It should be fairly breezy on Monday too, adding a
little rawness for the Memorial day holiday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

GFS/EC keep the region under northwest flow a loft into the middle
part of the new week, suggesting a transition to a bit more zonal
flow for the weekend. Weak high pressure promises a day or two of
dry conditions, centered on Wed, but fairly active after that with
various shortwave troughs spinning across the Upper Mississippi
River Valley.

Cool start to the week should see some warming for the later half -
with temps closer to the early June normals.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

A cold front continues to make quick progress toward the area, and
will arrive near or just after sunrise for RST/LSE, bringing an
increase in westerly winds, which will become even more gusty
through the morning and afternoon hours with gusts either side of
25 knots expected. Additionally, lower stratus and stratocumulus
will overspread many areas, with scattered showers and even
isolated thunderstorms expected. Ceilings will mainly remain lower
end VFR but a period of MVFR does now appear possible for a few
hours at RST through mid morning. Winds will diminish after
sunset, but with ceilings in the 3500-5000 ft range hanging around


Issued at 232 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Elevated river levels continue along the Mississippi River. If you
are planning any recreational activities on the Mississippi River be
alert for these high water levels and watch out for debris in the
water that may pose a threat to watercraft.




LONG TERM....Rieck
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