000
FXUS63 KARX 080829
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
229 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

LOCAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE AREA
AND A RECENT CHECK WITH LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMS THAT SOME DRIZZLE
IS OCCURRING. THE AREA OF RETURNS IS SLOWLY SHRINKING ON THE RADAR
AND EXPECT THAT THIS WILL HAVE DISSIPATED BY 12Z. THUS DO NOT PLAN
TO SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE STEADILY
SOUTHEAST AND BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WELL INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH AND WILL BE AIDED BY A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY AND THEN WELL INTO
THE 40S FOR MONDAY. SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTH MAY BRIEFLY FLIRT
WITH 50 MONDAY BUT THIS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. LITTLE TO NO THREAT FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ANY FORCING WILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. RATHER COMPLEX UPPER AIR PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES AS
IT PASSES BY. AT THE SAME TIME...ENERGY COMING IN OFF THE PACIFIC
WILL SPLIT AS IT CROSSES THE ROCKIES. SOME OF THIS ENERGY WILL
PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND CAUSE A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO
DEVELOP AND PASS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SURFACE LOW SHOULD FORM
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND THEN DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THE PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH COULD IMPACT THE AREA
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND WILL CARRY SOME 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCES OF A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

RIDGE BUILDING IS SLOWLY TAKING SHAPE WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER
WESTERN MN. HOWEVER...COOLING TONIGHT HAS LED TO IFR CLOUDS AT
KRST ALONG A BAND FROM NNE-SSW. WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA DRAWS CLOSER TO
THE TAF SITES. THE OVERALL TREND AT THE TAF SITES AFTER ABOUT
12Z SHOULD BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME DRIZZLE REPORTED ALONG A BAND BETWEEN KRST AND
KLSE. THIS COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES FOR A BIT TONIGHT AS WELL.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST CIG CATEGORIES THROUGH 15Z.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT