


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
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468 FXUS63 KARX 080554 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1254 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers-storms tonight into Tue morning. - Widespread shower/storm chances Friday. Humid airmass will promote locally heavy rain. Some strong storm risk. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 > REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING: spotty convection south A weakly convergent sfc boundary runs north-south across northeast IA/southwest WI early this afternoon with perhaps a meso low in there too. Ribbon of higher sfc Tds in that region with MLCAPES from 250-500 J/kg currently, progged in the RAP to climb to 1000 J/kg. Not unsurprisingly, some convection has started to pop as a result of this mix of weaker forcing and instability, and expect that to persist for the rest of the afternoon/early evening. Some of the CAMS capture this - but might be too spotty in coverage. > TONIGHT-TUESDAY: shower/storm chances Convection firing over the northern plains this afternoon, tied with an upper level shortwave trough/sfc cool front, will track southeast tonight...slipping over eastern WI by Tue afternoon. The areas/bands of showers/storms should lose some areal coverage and intensity as they move east tonight - losing out on the daytime instability. More of the pcpn focus could center on the shortwave moving across northern parts of the region and southward over IA where an MCV and branch of the low level jet will play roles. Expect pcpn chances for the local forecast area, but could be more scattered in nature. Moving into Tue afternoon, instability builds post the departing front/trough axis. A secondary sfc boundary may be sliding southeast across the region while remnants of upper level energy continue to pinwheel post the trough axis. RAP/HRRR soundings suggest the atmosphere would become uncapped by mid afternoon, so even weak forcing could be enough to spark isolated/scattered convection. CAMS, however, aren`t that enthusiastic on these prospects. Lacking clarity in the forcing mechanisms (are they there? where?) will opt in with the model blend for the rain chances - for now. > FRIDAY; humid with shower/storm chances. Locally heavy rain and stronger storm potential GEFS and EPS remain on track with slipping a bit of upper level energy out of the southern rockies Thu, spinning it east/northeast across the upper mississippi river valley Fri. On its heels, another shortwave trough (a bit stronger) looks to drop out of western Canada, making its way across the northern plains, swinging across northern parts of the region Sat. The models favor keeping these feature separate - but can`t completely rule out them merging as they swing northeast in southern Canada. Strong push of low level moisture ahead of the first bit of energy will push PWs north of 2" and warm cloud depths from 4 to 4.5 kft. Soupy and unstable. All this is ahead of the shortwave`s associated cool front. Both of the models` suite of members produce QPF in the Fri/Sat time frame, with expected differences in amounts/timing. Shaping up to be the "most likely" period for widespread pcpn. Depending on where/when the shortwave and cold front move in from the west, the mix of instability/shear could promote stronger storms. Something worth keeping an eye on. At the very least, the airmass favors storms capable of locally heavy rain. The shower/storm chances could linger through Sat, but could also be clearing north/east of the local forecast area in the morning. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 A line of storms has mostly dissipated and weakened across the forecast area progressing east through southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa into western Wisconsin. Subsequent impacts will be low chance (<20%) for scattered storms through today concurrent with peak daytime heating. Have not included in either TAF (KRST & KLSE) given the very low confidence but will need to be accounted for in coming TAFs. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rieck AVIATION...JAR