Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KARX 011639
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...THIS AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SIGNIFICANTLY REWORKED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE WAVE ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY IS
INTERCEPTING THE BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND YET ANOTHER
WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TAKING ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION
QUICKLY NORTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...A SPLIT IS OCCURRING IN THE PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR
CONTINUES TO DO WELL WITH THIS EVOLUTION...SO FOLLOWED IT. THIS
RESULTED IN REDUCING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES QUICKLY DOWN INTO
THE 20 AND 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A BROAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WITHIN THIS LONG WAVE
TROUGH...A CLOSED LOW WAS MOVING NORTH OUT OF ND INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING EAST
ACROSS NEB/KS. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OUT OF THE
WAVE...EXTENDING N-S FROM IA INTO EASTERN KS/OK.

LOOK FOR THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TODAY. CORRIDOR OF MODERATE 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WAVE EXPECTED TO
DRIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER AS WELL. 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 12-15C RANGE
AHEAD OF THE WAVE. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE 60S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA.

LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT THEN A TAPERING TREND LATE IN EVENING/OVERNIGHT
AS THE WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

RAINFALL...WIND...POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW MIX ALL A CONCERN IN THE
LONG TERM.

AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE DRIVING SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
DEEPEN THIS LOW AND TAKE IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. NAM/GFS INCREASES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO THE 1-
1.5 INCH RANGE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS GULF
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. BROAD 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW THURSDAY WILL
DRIVE INCREASING SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY. THEN AS THE LOW PULLS ACROSS WI THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING 850-
500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE/FOCUS MODERATE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...PLAN ON NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS TOWARD UPPER MI.

COLD AIR ADVECTION/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TAKE PLACE FRIDAY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING/DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. MID-LEVEL LOW/PV-ADVECTION WILL
ALSO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AS HIGHS TOP OFF ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S. SO
OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE RAW/BLUSTERY DAY WILL BE ON TAP.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE SHOWERS
LATE IN THE NIGHT/TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
TIME THERMAL PROFILE COOLS ENOUGH.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY DAY AS HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ADD TO THE CHILL. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. A COUPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWER
CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY...MODERATING PERHAPS A
COUPLE DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
EITHER REMAIN WELL NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON....THUS PLAN ON RAISING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. KLSE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR IN BOTH. MEANHWILE THE VISIBILITIES WILL
LIKELY BECOME VFR AT KRST...BUT THE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY STAY IN
THE MVFR RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE KRST/KLSE WILL STAY MAINLY DRY. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE DENSE FOG
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE WINDS BECOME
LIGHT BELOW 850 MB....SO NO PLANS TO PUSH IT ANY EARLIER THAN THEY
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TAFS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.