Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 230452
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1052 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

TONIGHT-MONDAY...DEEP NW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCOMING ARCTIC
HIGH PRES WILL SPELL VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE WFO MPX
CWFA. FOLLOWING HIGHS NOT EVEN REACHING 0 DEG F TDA...DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO THE -10 TO -20
DEG F RANGE. CLEAR CONDS UNDER THE 1040+ MB HIGH WITH WINDS IN THE 5-
10 MPH RANGE WILL EASILY CREATE WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO -25 TO -35
DEG F THIS EVE THRU LATE MRNG. WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND CHILL ADVY FOR
THE ENTIRE CWFA AS IS THRU ITS DURATION. AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES
MOVES OFF TO THE SE DURG THE DAY TMRW...WINDS WILL SHIFT ARND TO
SW...ALLOWING WAA TO COMMENCE THE WARMER INCOMING AIR WILL ALLOW
HIGHS TMRW TO RISE TO THE MID-TEENS TO MID-20S. ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY...NO WX CONCERNS IN
THE SHORT-TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS REMAINED IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH HOLDING ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF NORTH
AMERICA THRU MIDWEEK. IN ADDITION...THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME THRU MIDWEEK KEEPING THE STORM TRACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND THE NORTHEAST.

TWO SUBTLE SHRTWV/S AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS AND SFC LOWS WILL
MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD TO THE SW OR NE OF MPX CWA THRU
FRIDAY...WITH ONLY A SMALL CHC OF LOCALIZED LIGHT SNOW
EVENTS...CREATING A DUSTING OR AN INCH OF SNOWFALL.

THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
CANADIAN MODEL SFC LOW IS MUCH CLOSER TO SW MN AND ALLOWS MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES IN SW MN. BUT THE EC/GFS REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO KEEP CONDS MOSTLY DRY AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...WILL
ONLY HOLD/INTRODUCE CHC POPS IN THE FAR SW AND NE CWA.

TEMPS THRU THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN WELL BLW NORMAL. THE NORMAL
HIGH FOR LATE FEBRUARY IS 30-35 DEGREES...SO EVEN AS TEMPS RISE
INTO THE TEENS/20S IT WILL STILL REMAIN BLW NORMAL.

PAST THU/FRI...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHGS AS THE UPPER RIDGE
PARKED OFF THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH AMERICA TODAY BREAKS DOWN
AND RETROGRADES FURTHER WESTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH THE
EC/GFS HAVE THIS FORECAST AND BASED ON THE 50H HEIGHT FALLS LATE
IN THE WEEK ALONG THE WEST COAST...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
THEREFORE...OUR PERSISTENT DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WEATHER IN TERMS OF
SNOW...MAY CHANGE. AGAIN...IF THIS PATTERN DEVELOPS....IT WILL
CARVE OUT A LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AMERICA.
WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY START IN THE
WEST...AND TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST.
DEPENDING UPON THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM AND HOW IT
HOLDS AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER
OUR REGION WILL GET A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MN/WI WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH
FROM CENTRAL CANADA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-15 KNOTS
BY MID MORNING AND TO 20-25 KNOTS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE
WITH THE HIGH END GUSTS AROUND KAXN. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

KMSP...WINDS BY 15Z MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE FROM 210-220 DEGREES AT
12-15 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON TO 15-20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS. THESE SPEEDS AND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING (03Z). AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THE AIRFIELD JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE 30 HOUR
TAF (15Z TUE). WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND THEN SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE MORNING.

/OUTLOOK
FOR KMSP/

TUE...VFR. SCT FLURRIES IN THE MORNING. WINDS NW 15-20G30 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS N 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH


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