Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 151140
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
540 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

SNOW SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH 12Z.  MODELS SHOWING
SOME FAIRLY DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND WAA PATTERN SPREADING
EAST DURING THE MORNING.  THIS SHOULD SPREAD SNOW TO THE MN/WI
BORDER THROUGH 18Z.  DRY AIR WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME INTO WESTERN
WI...BUT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SATURATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL A
QUESTION HOW FAR NORTH TO GO WITH THE SNOW.  MODELS HAVE LIFTED SNOW
A BIT FARTHER NORTH...SO POPS WILL BE WARRANTED ACROSS THE AREA.
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY NORTH MAKE IT TO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE
CWA...BUT FLURRIES STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS ACROSS.  THE MAIN ACCUMULATION STILL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS ABOUT
THE SOUTHERN 3 TIER OF COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN MN. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD
RANGE 16-18:1 THROUGH THE EVENT...SO NOT MUCH QPF NEEDED TO GENERATE
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW.  HAVE INCLUDED ABOUT ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES
NORTH OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN...WHERE A SOLID
3-5 INCHES IS FORECAST.  MODELS DRIVE MAIN WAA FORCING ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH SOME LAYERED FGEN INTO FAR SOUTHERN MN
DURING THE LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY ENHANCE THE SNOW
A BIT...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THINGS WILL DIMINISH SOME BY LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCES SNOW AGAIN INTO TONIGHT.
THIS MAY DROP ANOTHER INCH OR SO ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z.

STARTED THE ADVISORY AT 14Z AND WILL EXTEND UNTIL 06Z WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH INTO THE EVENING. SNOW SHOULD END THROUGH 12Z
SUN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
BEHIND THE TROUGH AND WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOO MUCH
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. EXPECT FAIR MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH LOW TO MID 20S EXPECTED.
WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WESTERN
CWA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO COOL TO AROUND ZERO AGAIN BY 12Z
SUN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW 30-35 KT WINDS
TOWARD THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR 900 MB...SO CAN EXPECT
SOME BLOWING SNOW DURING THIS TIME ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MORE OPEN
TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO
BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...BUT DUE TO THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES THROUGH THE DGZ...THE DEPTH OF THE DGZ IS LIMITED. MOISTURE
IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE EITHER. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT
AND ACCUMULATION OF SNOW.

THE PATTERN REFUSES TO BREAK NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
QUIETER THAN RECENTLY. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH BACK THE
WARMING TREND WITH EACH FORECAST CYCLE AS REINFORCING SHOTS OF
ARCTIC AIR SPILL INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN AGAIN FOR DAYS 5-7. HOWEVER...THERE IS
HOPE ON THE HORIZON AS THE LATEST AO FORECAST TRENDS BACK TOWARD
NEUTRAL BY THE END OF THE MONTH...MEANING THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL
LIFT OUT. THIS COULD ALSO BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR A STORMIER
PATTERN AROUND THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS MN PORTION OF THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND SHOULD AFFECT KRWF SHORTLY. WILL DROP
CIGS TO LOW END MVFR WITH IFR VSBYS MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO MOVE INTO THE
REST OF MN PORTION THROUGH 18Z...AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER INTO
WISCONSIN. LOWER VSBYS/CIGS AT KSTC/KMSP/KRNH/KEAU THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SNOW SHOULD END TO THE MN/WI BORDER AROUND 08Z.
THEN BY 12Z SUN AT KEAU. WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS IN WI THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SE-S AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT AND THEN
BECOMING SW-W WITH FROPA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10KTS DURING THE PERIOD.

KMSP...
SOME MVFR VSBYS WITH BR AROUND THE FIELD THIS AM. MID CLOUD DECK
SHOULD INHIBIT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AROUND 16Z WITH LOW END MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS EXPECTED
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE STILL MAY BE A BREAK IN THE STEADIER
SNOW AROUND 21Z. BUT THERE SHOULD BE A REINTENSIFICATION AGAIN
INTO THE EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
MAY SEE IFR CIGS AT SOME POINT...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW SO WILL
MENTION THE SCT007 FOR NOW. LOOKS LIKE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND
06Z-08Z WITH IMPROVING CIGS THROUGH 12Z...AND SHOULD GO VFR BY
12Z. ACCUMULATION OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH LESS THAN 8KTS UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING WHEN WINDS BECOME MORE W-SW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW 8-15 KTS.
MON...SLIGHT CHC -SN WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 15-20 G 25 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     MNZ073>076-082>085-091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE






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