Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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697
FXUS63 KMPX 300509 AAB
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1209 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Water vapor imagery clearly illustrates the upper low rotating
over central/eastern Oklahoma this afternoon, with ample moisture
streaming northward into the area. Measurable precipitation on
radar imagery correlates with isentropic upglide on the 295K
surface. This area of lift will shift gradually north and east
through the evening hours toward east central MN and west central
WI.

Overnight, as colder air works into the area and the column cools,
we could see some light snow mixing in, primarily over west
central WI.

On Thursday, the upper circulation meanders across Iowa and
Missouri. This will mean a prolonged chance of light rain for the
far south and east (southern MN toward Eau Claire). By Thursday
eve, locations in far south central and southeast MN could see 24
hour rain totals in the one half to three quarter inch range.

Temperatures will lower into the low/mid 30s tonight, with lower
40s to lower 50s common for highs. Winds have been a bit stronger
in the south than models were projecting, so have increased speeds
a bit. Do expect some gusts into the the mid/upper teens (knots).

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

By Thursday evening, most of the precipitation should have ended
across southeast Minnesota. Lingering clouds across the southeast
one half of MPX forecast area should remain due to moisture/cyclonic
flow from the departing upper low. Slowly, as the system departs
Friday/Friday night, a ridge of high pressure will provide a couple
of days of dry and mostly sunny conditions. Temperatures should
rebound from the 40s and lower 50s, to the mid to upper 50s by
Saturday.

The extended period remains progressive as the continued fetch of
wave, after wave, moves inland across the west coast. The upper flow
pattern remains split in the mid section of the nation, with the
southern stream more active for the next 7 days. There are some
uncertainties on precipitation chances late in the weekend, and into
next week due to this split flow pattern. Therefore, past this
weekend, forecast confidence remains low on wet vs. dry.
Temperatures should lean near to above normal with this type of
pattern, and a mostly Pacific type air mass regime.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

MVFR cigs continue to work north into central MN and west central
WI tonight. MVFR cigs will continue through Thursday morning
before gradually lifting. Rain has also spread up into the
southern third of MN, but should retreat back to the southeast
overnight.

KMSP...Mostly MVFR cigs will prevail through Thursday. Rain
showers or sprinkles will continue through Thursday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind variable less than 5 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind SSE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



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