000
FXUS63 KMPX 240846
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
346 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE RAIN/THUNDER THREAT TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
THE CHANCE OF WET SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA INTO TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDS WITH
INITIAL WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. SOME
LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...AND BASED ON BEST LI`S...THIS
SHOULD WORK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND INTO A SMALL PORTION OF WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA NOW...WITH SOME MID/UPPER 30S.  AS STRONG LIFT
MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING...BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS
INDICATED A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THE POTWX TOOL DID INDICATE SMALL AREAS OF
RAIN/SNOW INTO THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. WE DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THE RAIN OVER THAT REGION INTO TODAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA
THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN THE GRIDS THE
LAST FEW DAYS/  THE RAIN AREA WILL BE AFFECTING THE MORNING COMMUTE
OVER THE SOUTH EAST. SECOND AREA OF THUNDER POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA.  MODELS WERE INDICATING SOME
MUCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH/COLD TEMPS ALOFT GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY.  MENTIONED SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HELD IN THE 40S
IN THE AREAS SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...MAINLY EASTERN CWA.

THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST INTO TONIGHT.  COULD SEE A RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS OVERNIGHT.  DIDNT MENTION ANY
ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME WITH RELATIVELY WARM GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE POSITIVE NOTE IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. THE
NOT-SO-POSITIVE PART IS THAT THEY HAVE CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION
THAT FEATURES THE MARRYING OF THE CENTRAL CONUS CLOSED LOW
WITH A LOW THAT BACK PEDDLES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM QUEBEC. WHAT
THIS TRANSLATES TO IS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES AVERAGING
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 20-30 POPS
LITTERING THE FORECAST... AS THE MASSIVE LOW OVERWHELMS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERHEAD UPSTREAM OF THE DEEPENING BAJA TROUGH.
FRIDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 55 AND 65 DEGREES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN
THE LOWER 50S UP TOWARD LADYSMITH WHERE RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER.

SATURDAY WILL BRING A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WIND AS THE
AFORMENTIONED TROUGH REACHES THE PLAINS. RELATED PRECIPIATION
SHOULD BEGIN EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH NOTABLY INCREASING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO MONDAY AS A NEARLY STACKED SYSTEM
MEANDERS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA. HAVE INCLUDED 60-80 POPS ACROSS
THE BULK OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...EXCEPTING A LITTLE
FALLS TO EAU CLAIRE LINE WHICH MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THE MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. SOUTHERN MN LOCALES WILL HAVE
THE OPPORTUNINTY FOR THUNDER...WHILE NORTHERN AREAS /INTERSTATE 94
AND NORTH/ MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN /PRIMARILY IN THE NOCTURNAL
TIMEFRAMES MONDAY-TUESDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FEATURE THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED LOW POPS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
READINGS POSSIBLY CLOSING OUT THE MONTH OF APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

LITTLE TO NO PRECIP CURRENTLY AFFECTING ALL WFO MPX TERMINALS AT
24/06Z INITIALIZATION TIME BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ORGANIZING OVER FAR SWRN MN AND GOING UPSTREAM
FROM THERE. THIS LARGER AREA OF PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COVERAGE AREA APPROACHING DAYBREAK AND PERSIST THRU MIDDAY THU.
SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PERIOD OF MOD-HVY RAIN
ARND DAYBREAK AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY AFTN...WHICH MAY DROP VSBY
INTO IFR RAIN DUE TO PRECIP INTENSITY. AS FOR CIGS...ALL SITES ARE
VFR BUT HAVE SHOWN A LOWERING TREND SO HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF
MVFR CIGS FROM THE 00Z SET PER THESE TRENDS BUT AM STILL XPCTG
CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR BY 09Z-10Z AND REMAIN AS SUCH INTO LATE AFTN.
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ATTM TO TRY TO PINPOINT CONVECTION AT ANY OF
THE TERMINALS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND AN
INCOMING CDFNT SO HAVE OMITTED CB/TS ATTM...ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT. CONDS IMPROVE BY LATE AFTN THRU THE EVE HRS
TMRW WITH THE FROPA. WINDS TO REMAIN NE OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY TMRW THEN SWING AROUND TO EVENTUALLY BECOME W TO NW TMRW EVE
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT THRU TMRW AFTN THEN DIMINISHING.

KMSP...VFR CONDS TO START THEN MVFR CIGS LIKELY IN THE PRE-DAWN
HRS ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY SOLID RAIN. RAIN WILL
PERSIST THRU LATE MRNG...WITH A PERIOD OF MOD-HVY RAIN LIKELY DURG
THE MRNG PUSH WHICH MAY DROP CONDS INTO IFR RANGE. PRECIP
GRADUALLY ABATES BY EARLY-TO-MID AFTN AND CONDS IMPROVE FROM
THERE. WINDS TO CONTINUE FROM THE SE THRU LATE MRNG...THEN AS A
CDFNT MOVES THRU...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL SWING ARND TO SW BY MID
AFTN THEN TO WNW TMRW AFTN AND EVE. SPEEDS WILL BE GREATEST DURG
THE FIRST 6-9 HRS OF THIS TAF SET...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-10 KT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. W WINDS 10-15 KT BCMG N.
SAT...VFR. NE WINDS 10-15 KT.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN -RA. E WINDS 15-25 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC