Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 010030

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
730 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Expect increasing clouds across the area tonight. small chance of
a shower moving into a small part of west central Wisconsin late
tonight into Saturday morning as upper low rotates to the
northwest and lifts moisture westward across the area.
Fog/stratus expected to redevelop and move southwest in low level
easterly flow from Lake Superior this evening and affect mainly
parts of central MN overnight. There are some high clouds moving
in from the west and and stratocu moving in from the upper low to
the east should preclude widespread fog elsewhere. Overnight lows
will be determined by extent of cloud cover.

Clouds should hang tough through Saturday as well...with models
continuing to show abundant lower level moisture. May see some
sunny breaks into the afternoon...but anticipate a mostly cloudy
trend...with temepratures a bit cooler than Friday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

The persistent Upper Low that has been holding steady across the
Ohio Valley the last couple of days, will slowly fill and lift
northeast across the Great Lakes by late in the weekend. In the wave
of the Upper Low, an Upper Ridge will move eastward across the Upper
Midwest by Monday. Once this ridge moves through, our region will
begin to see more unsettled weather.

Timing of the precipitation has been the main concern over the past
several days and remains questionable due to the speed of the Upper
Ridge, and how deep the trough digs over the Rockies early next
week. For now, the best time frame for widespread precipitation will
develop Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. As the mean flow remains
southwest to northeast, the cold front will likely slow, leading to
additional precipitation Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday night. Slowly
this storm system over the Rockies will fill, and move north of the
Canadian border late next week. This will cut off the main bands of
precipitation north of MPX CWA.

As for temperatures, I would not be surprised to see upper 70s or
even lower 80s Tuesday (along the Iowa border) if more sunshine is
apparent and if any precipitation that developed Tuesday morning has
ended. Later shifts can readjust based on trends of the warm air
advection ahead of next weeks system. Once the cold front moves
across the area late next week, a period of near or slightly below
normal temperatures seem reasonable. In addition, based on some
cooler temperatures as the main storm system moves across the
Northern Plains, a few snow showers will be possible, especially in
the arrowhead of Minnesota the weekend of October 8th.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 719 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Clouds are on the increase this evening. Similar to last night,
low (IFR) clouds from Lake Superior are dropping southwest across
the area and at the same time 4000-5000ft ceilings are advancing
across the area from the east. Low ceilings with some vis
restriction is expected by the early morning hours at all the TAF
sites. MVFR conditions appear likely with IFR possible.


Initially, a 4000-5000ft deck will move into early tonight, with
lowering clouds bases early tomorrow morning. Ceilings below
1700ft are possible.

Sun...VFR. Wind NE at 5 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind SE at 5-10 kts
Tue...chance mvfr -trw. SE at 10-15 kts.


.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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